Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.

[Mucka]

GFS is dreadful this morning, surprise, surprise, with a wintry mix from the slider and barely any Easterly flow until an FI mishmash.

Doesn't send enough energy South and residual energy (shortwave) pushes the high away and anyway far too flat behind to provide meaningful link up - other than that it is a cracking run.

UKMO looks pretty good but hard to know how far East the cold uppers get pushed by the slider so without info hard to say where any rain/snow line would be .Looks too far East though for snow for much of the West at least but all academic at the moment since things will change again.

The 144 chart looks quite impressive though, baring dodgy shortwave development to the North, with a much better orientation of the Azores ridge behind. Could be better but that is an improvement on the last run and a world apart from GFS.

Reasonable chance of staying on the cold side of any future battle from there with perhaps another slider in the offering later.

GEM has a mainly rain event for the slider but is better than GFS. It is much flatter behind than UKMO though.

Even so it goes on to produce a slider later and maintain blocking though not particularly wintry and the Atlantic gets in at the 3rd attempt.

That relates back to a post I made last night about needing the pattern to be more amplified behind because that will reinforce the block and force the pattern West giving us a better opportunity of sustaining a cold pattern. We can't rely on energy breaking in just the right place and high pressure hanging on to the NE without being reinforced as the Atlantic will always win the battle.

PS

What on Earth is wrong with the metoceil server?

Edited February 6, 2013 by Mucka

[snowmadchrisuk]

GFS is dreadful this morning, surprise, surprise

Glad it is not just me that thinks that , Can't really see Weathermasters view .. I think he called it way to early in the run,

[Ice Day]

On the face of it a nice looking 120 chart, however the uppers for most of the country are a little on the high side (apart from eastern fringes of Scotland), should hopefully look better at 144 as the low moves south of us

Edited February 6, 2013 by Ice Day

[Ice Day]

144 and it looks just fine to me. Colder uppers being dragged across us now

[winterof79]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020600/ECH1-144.GIF?06-12

Heavy convective snow showers for many.

[Dave Kightley]

Oh damn it... 168h not good

[snowmadchrisuk]

144 and it looks just fine to me. Colder uppers being dragged across us now

Still makes Snow chances on Sunday less likely , and looking at Monday's 850's would probably be Snow to rain in some areas ... On other ECM run's it took the Low to the West of us , today it is like UKMO and takes it right across the country , dragging its milder Atlantic modified air with it , The really Cold upper's don't now show to head back in until Tuesday ,.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Oh damn it... 168h not good

The Scandi High hasn't held and has been forced East ... Better hope it has modeled this wrong , or the Atlantic will try and make a come back .

[Dave Kightley]

Off to block goes.shortwave up again..

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

ECMWF 00z is very cold for Brittain, i have seen until 168 hours , is enough for the time been.

I told you , there is no atlantic.

Its looks like same like ukmo 144 to 00z.

Short wave or long wave storie s doesnt fit up.

It goes with the flow , en the flow is bringing us direct to winter.

[Dave Kightley]

There a secondary feature behind this low causing the problems. UKmo makes less of it then ECM.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Off to block goes.shortwave up again..

Yes look's like pretty rubbish solutions all round this morning .. Still at least there is plenty of time for a flip back at this range .,

ECMWF 00z is very cold for Brittain, i have seen until 168 hours , is enough for the time been.

I told you , there is no atlantic.

Its looks like same like ukmo 144 to 00z.

Short wave or long wave storie s doesnt fit up.

It goes with the flow , en the flow is bringing us direct to winter.

Well for Southern Uk the Flow is bringing us SW winds

[winterof79]

There is no atlantic as such. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020600/ECH1-168.GIF?06-12

There will be more sliders modelled.

[winterof79]

Not much left of th PV to our N/W at 192z wonder weather we will see some form of height rise there. http://www.meteociel...1-192.GIF?06-12

Will the slider theme continue? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020600/ECH1-216.GIF?06-12

Edited February 6, 2013 by winterof79

[Dave Kightley]

216h no heights to the n.e left. I think it would be rain with ridge building in Atlantic on 240h.to Far East anyway...

Edited February 6, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[winterof79]

216h no heights to the n.e left. I think it would be rain with ridge building in Atlantic on 240h.to Far East anyway...

Heights to our N/E are itching to move westward at 240 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020600/ECH1-240.GIF?06-12

Depends on how far south the low digs.I cannot see much more energy to our N/W ready to be fired at us.Possible height rises to come.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Btw i look the ecmwf 00z complte now , no SW for brittain , Riidge is bulding at 216-240 at Atalntic again en also greenland.

En the High above Norway is moving bit strength towards Greenland.

The low wil slide SA towards France at 240 , becouse no way out for her.

No problem.If this become so , wile we talink very long range at 240 hours.

I say until 144-168 is long enough in this weather pattern.

[Weather-history]

Looking across the 0z models, they look overall less impressive for extended cold today. UKMO and ECM have the slider further east by the looks of it which decreases snow chances from that system for more of the country. GFS, splits the slider low into two parts, one going south, the other north. ECM 192 onwards has the Atlantic nosing in.

Complicated!

[nick sussex]

Theres no point spinning the ECM into anything other than a downgrade on yesterday evenings.

Less cold uppers then complicated by a shortwave in the worst possible position which then stops the block extending west and phases with the next incoming low,from there its over too much energy runs over the top.

It's quite amazing how one small feature can set in motion a domino effect that takes an output from being very good to all a bit underwhelming.

The UKMO is great in comparison but as you can see both the GFS and ECM have a shortwave complicating matters ,we'll see this evening but todays ECM after last nights is a bit like being promised a ski holiday to Banff Canada and then finding out you're instead going on a sightseeing tour of Tehran!

[Dave Kightley]

Heights to our N/E are itching to move westward at 240 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020600/ECH1-240.GIF?06-12

Depends on how far south the low digs.I cannot see much more energy to our N/W ready to be fired at us.Possible height rises to come.

I'm surprised the block gets pushed so easily.. UkMo looks better over Greenland and makes less of the feature behind our low Sunday. We will see.

[cooling climate]

There will be a lot of unhappy bunnies on here this morning I think. Far from reinforcing last nights

excellent Euro runs there is a lot of uncertainty this morning.

The UKMO is the pick of the bunch for prolonging the cold. If the ECM was a couple of hundred miles further

south with the low we would be looking at a much snowier picture.

[Jason M]

I am not talking like a Child , You shouldn't talk to people like that on a friendly Weather forum . I am commenting on what the Model shows in the Medium term ... I agree the Atlantic has slowed down but the UK is a small island and SW's can spoil things here from a Snow prospective , if there not set up correctly . For example from this morning's Chart's the West of the UK would experience Rain on Sunday with Milder 850's wrapped around the Short wave. I'm not saying the models won't switch back and look a lot better for the united kingdom come this evening , we will see.

100 per cent agree with this.

Significant Snow risk for the weekend is reduced this morning (though i still think there would be some around) The 500 charts look okay but the 850s are a big problem. METO is hard to comment on as we don't get enough info on the 850s but may be okay.

Anyone calling this either way is taking a big risk IMHO. As you say though things may well change later as we're looking at small differences in Synoptics making big differences at ground level.

Jason

[Weather-history]

Btw i look the ecmwf 00z complte now , no SW for brittain , Riidge is bulding at 216-240 at Atalntic again en also greenland.

En the High above Norway is moving bit strength towards Greenland.

The low wil slide SA towards France at 240 , becouse no way out for her.

I think you are stretching it with some of that analysis, what ridges you mention are pittance, the problem is there is still low heights around the Greenland region.

[Ian Brown]

Theres no point spinning the ECM into anything other than a downgrade on yesterday evenings.

Less cold uppers then complicated by a shortwave in the worst possible position which then stops the block extending west and phases with the next incoming low,from there its over too much energy runs over the top.

It's quite amazing how one small feature can set in motion a domino effect that takes an output from being very good to all a bit underwhelming.

The UKMO is great in comparison but as you can see both the GFS and ECM have a shortwave complicating matters ,we'll see this evening but todays ECM after last nights is a bit like being promised a ski holiday to Banff Canada and then finding out you're instead going on a sightseeing tour of Tehran!

Yes, although perhaps right for the wrong reasons it looks like a victory for the GFS in terms of what will happen at the weekend, with rain and average to mild temperatures. It's then complex thereafter but unlikely that the UKMO would verify at T144 as heights would not be able to rise to the North in that way.

[Ian Brown]

Btw i look the ecmwf 00z complte now , no SW for brittain , Riidge is bulding at 216-240 at Atalntic again en also greenland.

En the High above Norway is moving bit strength towards Greenland.

The low wil slide SA towards France at 240 , becouse no way out for her.

No problem.If this become so , wile we talink very long range at 240 hours.

I say until 144-168 is long enough in this weather pattern.

Ryan, the charts are not showing what you have forecast. Accept that and move on.