Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The way i see the models this morning is cold with a chance of snow almost anywhere right up until this time next week. Forget the stress heads looking for a breakdown, they are not happy unless they are stressed lol.

[Methuselah]

Can we please cut-out the personal sniping? just so y'all know why so many 'posts' have disappeared!

[snowmadchrisuk]

The way i see the models this morning is cold with a chance of snow almost anywhere right up until this time next week. Forget the stress heads looking for a breakdown, they are not happy unless they are stressed lol.

Well if were talking the Weekend, don't get me wrong the chance is still there, and if the Precipitation is heavy even with the uppers shown there will be Snow in places for sure... Would still rather the low slid further West though as this would help us drag in Colder uppers , Last night's Ecm was the best solution for Snow , had something about 1991 about it , High to NW , Low pressure to SE , really Cold 850's heading towards the UK.

[Long haul to mild]

No GFS is dogs biscuits and useless remember ECM had next weeks pattern nailed since Sunday didnt it lol

Think it's a bit too early to be calling a victory for any model at the moment, so let's just see what pans out in this very complicated setup!

Edited February 6, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[Long haul to mild]

Yes, although perhaps right for the wrong reasons it looks like a victory for the GFS in terms of what will happen at the weekend, with rain and average to mild temperatures. It's then complex thereafter but unlikely that the UKMO would verify at T144 as heights would not be able to rise to the North in that way.

It may well turn out to be rain, but there's nothing mild about the progged temps of 2-4 degrees!

[Bristawl Si]

5 days away to a possible snow event for some of the UK and people in a panic over model runs today.

This is not an uncommon model trait - they often have a 'wobble' showing up slightly different scenarios days out.

Best wait until about Friday this week to judge if any snow event will happen Sunday/Monday.

[Weather-history]

It's then complex thereafter but unlikely that the UKMO would verify at T144 as heights would not be able to rise to the North in that way.

It's begs the question, why not? All I see is an extension of a ridge towards Greenland, so why can't it extend a ridge that way?

Edited February 6, 2013 by Weather-history

[Captain Shortwave]

What a mess this morning, Nick Sussex I recommend you take the Tehran ticket, probably will be safer than being in here

Well shortwaves appearing again in the mornings runs which range from doing not too much to totally game over(ing) the cold spell.

For anyone claiming victory for the gfs though, food for thought

The spoiler shortwave shown in the ECM has cross model support of developing from pretty much every model...... except GFS.

It also looks like still the Canadian vortex is on the wane with it looking to become more extensive over Siberia which is at least something to salvage from the ECM run.

[NickR]

5 days away to a possible snow event for some of the UK and people in a panic over model runs today.

This is not an uncommon model trait - they often have a 'wobble' showing up slightly different scenarios days out.

Best wait until about Friday this week to judge if any snow event will happen Sunday/Monday.

Rather begs the question: what's the point of a Model Output discussion thread.

Edited February 6, 2013 by NickR

[Bristawl Si]

Rather begs the question: what's the point of a Model Output discussion thread.

Not really - discuss what you want about frequent model runs. If it's your preference to discuss every run 4 times/day then fine - and worry about what MIGHT or might NOT happen in a few days weatherwise then so be it.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Guest bjaykent]

Some strange comments in here this morning with two weather charts like this from the best performing models this winter at 144. The battle between cold and mild will always rage in the models as much as it does in here between posters. But surely you have to be positive about these charts which after all have remained pretty unchanged in a week.

[MR EXTREMES]

Theres no point spinning the ECM into anything other than a downgrade on yesterday evenings.

Less cold uppers then complicated by a shortwave in the worst possible position which then stops the block extending west and phases with the next incoming low,from there its over too much energy runs over the top.

It's quite amazing how one small feature can set in motion a domino effect that takes an output from being very good to all a bit underwhelming.

The UKMO is great in comparison but as you can see both the GFS and ECM have a shortwave complicating matters ,we'll see this evening but todays ECM after last nights is a bit like being promised a ski holiday to Banff Canada and then finding out you're instead going on a sightseeing tour of Tehran!

its also worth noting that yesterday we see a flip flop from the ecm there be back on board by this evening the models are just playing with idears im sure by friday were know for sure.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Rybris Ponce
You know!

[winterof79]

Some strange comments in here this morning with two weather charts like this from the best performing models this winter at 144. The battle between cold and mild will always rage in the models as much as it does in here between posters. But surely you have to be positive about these charts which after all have remained pretty unchanged in a week.

Atlantic charging in on the GFS ? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png No it is not.

[Captain Shortwave]

its also worth noting that yesterday we see a flip flop from the ecm there be back on board by this evening the models are just playing with idears im sure by friday were know for sure.

This is a good point for now, we still don't have much of a clue what this shortwave feature will do as it's only formed on this mornings runs, for all we know the next runs could show it running further south and ploughing straight into the South East of England and then thoughts would go from game over to boomage.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Ok i have learned now that in this forum its aloud to kopie text en put a chart with in it.

In my forums that is not aloud.

I was confuse.

So i make excues now for the gentleman in question.

But other thing , there will be no Atlantic.

See the ensemble charts , the height wille be strengting by Greenland en Lapland.

[IDO]

Thats the ECM for you. It sticks 100% with a solution and has massive support at times with its ensembles, but like December now comes the backtrack (assumption I know, and not fact yet). Of course, like a stopped watch it will get it right sometimes, as when it stuck with the undercut in Jan, but this winter that is the exception rather than the rule. GFS may be inconsistent, but surely years of experience in set ups like these show us that there are a myriad of possibilities. GFS creates a puzzle and as in this case it hints at the likely outcome till it gets there, unlike the ECM that goes all in and then goes broke (modelled for four days) with another failed easterly (may be back on again by the 12z, but not my point). This weekend onwards always looked like a battleground UK scenario rather than another phantom ECM Easterly.

So still possibly some interesting weather this weekend. Snow for some, maybe? Transient from ECM. The GFS in FI keeps it cool and there are hints at more potential for cold from GEFS:

However "ice days" are still looking unlikely as is a prolonged snowy spell, probably just standard Feb weather.

[Jason M]

It may well be that ECM is a mild outlier this morning. Because GFS is not on board it suddenly becomes 2 on 1 against. I think I'll wait until this evening before coming to any major conclusions.

One think notable over the last few days though has been the lack of any substantial cold pool over Europe. I'm on my phone so can't seek out a temp an chart but I'd imagine most of Europe would be glowing nicely red for the next ten days. Normally by early feb we don't lack the uppers it just becomes a matter of getting them here. Today's relatively benign northerly illustrates the issue.

Jason

[MR EXTREMES]

This is a good point for now, we still don't have much of a clue what this shortwave feature will do as it's only formed on this mornings runs, for all we know the next runs could show it running further south and ploughing straight into the South East of England and then thoughts would go from game over to boomage.

and the first piece of the jigsaw is in place there is blocking forming to our northeast trying to push west i really dont think this is a done deal by far and its cross model agreement for this blocking so step one is in place.

[cold snap]

People moan about the gfs, then ECM comes up with this a one and half day cold snap

ECM is solid until you get into the reliable time frame

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

You see , good chart , ther is no atlantic here ,.Noway.

Its cold , frost end snow.

Very good.

[Timmytour]

For me the models are beginning to fall in line with what I've been hearing from the Met office over the last couple of days. Despite being full of ECM promise, I've not detected the "excitement" from them that there was in the run up to the January spell.

i don't pretend for one moment that the GFS has come anywhere near calling this right. What it did however is produce different outcomes in different runs, which gave me cause for thinking that nothing could be so nailed on as to justify cionsistent runs. Consistency is only good if it verifies.

[Panayiotis]

Better shorter term GFS on the 00z, with a possible snow event for many come Sunday..

It also ends again with heights towards Greenland...

[Roger J Smith]

I don't see any huge changes in the models, just an uncertain theme developing. This may signal a new consensus around the corner but there is plenty of bust potential whenever weak pushes of mild air have only a northwesterly jet stream to move them forward. I suispect that colder ensemble members will win out but the situation is admittedly messy and a lot of energy will be focused on the eastern U.S. sector by the weekend. We're looking at some potential for a major storm to develop near Cape Cod and 20-30 inch snowfalls in Boston, for example. With that much pattern change in one sector, it's odd to see such a flabby undefined pattern persisting for 3-4 days in another sector, and as they say, nature abhors a vacuum.

[Jason M]

It's begs the question, why not? All I see is an extension of a ridge towards Greenland, so why can't it extend a ridge that way?

Indeed. In fact, given that the models are presumably proposing solutions based on physics logically the fact that its being shown illustrates that this set up could occur (not that it means it will :-))

Jason

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Look at this chart from the Austarlian model .

No chance for the atlantik.

Noway.Strong blockings.