winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[Gibby]

How people can keep saying it will move South with any conviction seems strange to me. The trend in the models, and Meto forecasts, has been for a shift north.

People are stil referring to the system moving south and east on Monday - that was yesterday's progged Monday outcome - today that part of the forecast has changed - simples really!

A Q for the experts on here (not for the think-they're-experts)- if the block to our East is/was a much colder mass of air, would the progged progress of the front on Sunday/Monday be slower and more likely to 'slide' SE, and further to the West of the UK?

There is some truth in what you say with regard to block to our East. We (here in the SW) would of been at much greater risk of significant snow if the block to our East was much colder and much better defined. However, my own viewpoint is that it's the Azores High which has been very unfriendly in this recent spell with the Jet riding too high over the Atlantic then steering repeated fronts of mild air into the West of the UK and taking them SE into Southern Europe. The sheer strength of this High and it's close proximity to the SW is as I mentioned yesterday a miracle that we are or were talking about any risk of snow here in the SW at all. As long as it stays there we will live on a knife edge for any cold weather here and the UK as a whole will likely join in with the milder theme later next week unless the Azores High slips either North or West.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Gibby

[Mucka]

With everybody concentrating on what may fall and where on Sunday the bigger picture has been overlooked this morning.

All the models are now going for sending the majority of the energy behind the slider over the top of the block which means it may stay dry, cold and, grey at the surface for a while as high pressure settles over us at best or becoming milder and more unsettled from the NW at worse but either way snow chances and deep cold could be written off for another week or so taking us toward the last week of Feb.

We really need to see better alignment of the block with some undercutting showing up by mid month in the output soon or it is case of make the most out of Sunday/Monday because it could be the last chance at serious snowfall this winter.

ECM Op was very much on the cold side of the mean for London after mid month with us sat under high pressure which suggests the majority of the ensembles go for a slow breakdown from the Northwest.

Still, those ensembles do not suggest Atlantic domination so mid latitude blocking around but I feel our best chance of something worthwhile setting up is around mid month as that is when the block will be best positioned to resist and force undercut otherwise energy pushing over the top can only cause it to slowly sink.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

NAE suggestive of 25-30mm of precipitation across western half of UK up to 12z Sunday. Probably mostly rain to that point. I expect amber warnings may be issued later on, possibly tomorrow morning.

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Just finished reading a cracking book....It's called 'The Grand Design' by Prof Stephen Hawking.....a wonderful read, speculating on the universe, it's origins, how it might end, and also talk about alternative realities and parallel universes.....This is very reassuring to know as it means somewhere in a parallel universe there is also a weather forum called 'NetWeather' and in that universe there is a thread called the 'Model Output Discussion' where the current model output, i.e what is being shown by the model output, is actually discussed!! .......how to get there??

What planet are you from?

ffO.

[Manchester_Sunset]

Deputy Chief Forecaster Dan Suri explains whether the UK will get snow this weekend. He also explains why there is uncertainty in the forecast.

Keep up to date with the latest forecast at www.metoffice.gov.uk

[A.J]

What planet are you from?

ffO.

subtle hints are wasted on you then my good man!....back to the models please!

[R.P. McMurphy]

Deputy Chief Forecaster Dan Suri explains whether the UK will get snow this weekend. He also explains why there is uncertainty in the forecast.

Keep up to date with the latest forecast at www.metoffice.gov.uk

Not sure that real. Nobody has eyebrows like that.

In all seriousness thats a really good forecast and highlights exactly as the models are showing. Very high uncertainty until

We finally get the LP developing. Someone, somewhere is going to get 2010 all

Over again.

[Cheese Rice]

Deputy Chief Forecaster Dan Suri explains whether the UK will get snow this weekend. He also explains why there is uncertainty in the forecast.

Keep up to date with the latest forecast at www.metoffice.gov.uk

Thanks for posting I'm on my phone but there's a really good image towards the end which shows the probability of snow by how many members project it. I notice West Yorkshire is in the highest probability area (red). Even still the complexity of the low is stopping me from getting excited as there are too many variables.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Cheese Rice

[cooling climate]

Just like to add that if this thread was full of Met men and women discussing the weekend into

early next week not one of them would be able to give an accurate forcast at this range. So

why some posters on here are trying to or even saying it will go this way or that as if they know

is a tad silly to say the least.

As far as I am concerned if the tempertures (and I am not saying they will not be) are not cold

enough to support laying snow then I could not care less what falls from the sky.

Back to the models and it does look to me as if the east at least will stay in a continental feed of

air throughout the week with perhaps colder uppers making there way across to the UK over next

weekend and beyond. The Meto update today gives a little hint that this may happen as well.

[MrSunshine]

Not sure that real. Nobody has eyebrows like that.

In all seriousness thats a really good forecast and highlights exactly as the models are showing. Very high uncertainty until

We finally get the LP developing. Someone, somewhere is going to get 2010 all

Over again.

Could be us my friend could be us if the current model output verifies.

[Manchester_Sunset]

No :-( I need to get over pennines.

[Summer Sun]

Here is the latest NAE

[kmanmx]

Here is the latest NAE

Looking good.

[lord stratus]

Just like to add that if this thread was full of Met men and women discussing the weekend into

early next week not one of them would be able to give an accurate forcast at this range. So

why some posters on here are trying to or even saying it will go this way or that as if they know

is a tad silly to say the least.

As far as I am concerned if the tempertures (and I am not saying they will not be) are not cold

enough to support laying snow then I could not care less what falls from the sky.

Back to the models and it does look to me as if the east at least will stay in a continental feed of

air throughout the week with perhaps colder uppers making there way across to the UK over next

weekend and beyond. The Meto update today gives a little hint that this may happen as well.

Surely your post is doing the same!

[Yarmy]

Here is the latest NAE

Very damp, but Ian F told us to ignore the raw output for the earlier run so presumably we can do the same again?

[cooling climate]

Surely your post is doing the same!

True but I am only second guessing if you like what the synoptics and weather pattern may be

in the mid range rather than being much more finite that this and trying to predict where it may or

may not snow at t48-72 range.

Edited February 8, 2013 by cooling climate

[Tom Jarvis]

Looking good.

No damp squib for almost everyone

[Manchester_Sunset]

No-one knows what is going to happen, so how you can pinpoint places of where and when is beyond me!

[MrSunshine]

12z GFS rolling out......

[Frosty.]

Just like to add that if this thread was full of Met men and women discussing the weekend into

early next week not one of them would be able to give an accurate forcast at this range. So

why some posters on here are trying to or even saying it will go this way or that as if they know

is a tad silly to say the least.

I thought that was the purpose of the model output discussion, to speculate on how each of us see the period from sunday to tuesday and then seeing how close we were to how it actually happens, I don't pretend to know what exactly will happen but I give it my best shot.

[Isolated Frost]

No damp squib for almost everyone

Not at all, maybe for the south and south-east, but for much of the Midlands and the North West it is very good.

[MrSunshine]

Not at all, maybe for the south and south-east, but for much of the Midlands and the North West it is very good.

I'm inclined to agree. Lets see what the 12z GFS brings.

[Dexter29]

Doesn't look like any push south on the 12z

Even marginal for the whole of the midlands on this run

[IDO]

So by 6pm Sunday most of the UK having positive DPs so mostly rain to anything below 200m:

[Matty M]

GFS sticking to its guns on the 12z.

Infact the 12z is worse (in terms of snow potential Sunday/Monday) than the 6z and has returned to the poor low orientation seen in the 0z output.