South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/02/13 00z ------->

[cerneman]

Good Morning,,,,,,,,Temps 3.2c, No wind, Bright with few sunny spells,Nice Sunrise this Morning

[snowmadchrisuk]

Ouch , can't find much Positive to say about Snowfall in our region this morning ... No point showing the NMM Snow Chart as it doesn't show anything ,,, Current risk has shifted North and East ie Bristol NEward . Hopefully 6z will give us some Idea on Tue/Wed .. Anybody who can find any Charts that might cheer me up .. Please post

[ARTDEMOLE]

Snizzle Here...3.2ºC. WNW 2km/h....

[offerman]

Ah well snow peeps, hey at least we had some this winter and not complete failure, Its the rain for the levels people i feel sorry for this weekend with no support from the gov for those areas, they have no chance of drying out and carrying on.

So rain Sat/sun/mon for southwest, ahhh sounds just like summer :-)

[snowmadchrisuk]

Ah well snow peeps, hey at least we had some this winter and not complete failure, Its the rain for the levels people i feel sorry for this weekend with no support from the gov for those areas, they have no chance of drying out and carrying on.

So rain Sat/sun/mon for southwest, ahhh sounds just like summer :-)

If the Low takes the track of the GFS and ECM , even the Midlands will very likely see all rain .. The Warm sector just get's trapped over the Country and doesn't get mixed out ... Last minute shift either West or South is the only chance left ... Come on 6zzzzzzzzzz Were really at last chance saloon .

[snowmadchrisuk]

There's no way it Can Snow in Somerset until at least the 12th with uppers like that ... Almost total agreement on the Ensembles that we will get rain ..

[Frosty_wsm]

If the Low takes the track of the GFS and ECM , even the Midlands will very likely see all rain .. The Warm sector just get's trapped over the Country and doesn't get mixed out ... Last minute shift either West or South is the only chance left ... Come on 6zzzzzzzzzz Were really at last chance saloon .

We're nowhere near last chance saloon yet, there could be changes right up to the event, not quite the same synoptic as this coming weekend but I remember one year a snow event that was forecast for the south, all was on track the night before but the following morning the south was bone dry and the lp was pushed south into France instead, so who knows, we could see last minute changes to the track that would have a huge impact to what we see falling out of the sky!

[fergieweather]

We're nowhere near last chance saloon yet, there could be changes right up to the event, not quite the same synoptic as this coming weekend but I remember one year a snow event that was forecast for the south, all was on track the night before but the following morning the south was bone dry and the lp was pushed south into France instead, so who knows, we could see last minute changes to the track that would have a huge impact to what we see falling out of the sky!

Agreed. High stakes but not yet high resolution. V v tricky, as even 00z-06z GFS variations attest.

[Nights King]

Ouch , can't find much Positive to say about Snowfall in our region this morning ... No point showing the NMM Snow Chart as it doesn't show anything ,,, Current risk has shifted North and East ie Bristol NEward . Hopefully 6z will give us some Idea on Tue/Wed .. Anybody who can find any Charts that might cheer me up .. Please post

I hate to have my fears confirmed from other day when I was told to be positive, winter has been one downgrade after another, there is time for a last upgrade but not likely.

Lets hope we see a decent fall in spring maybe I shall be inbterested to see if the met office remove the snow warnings for this half the country later today?

Edited February 8, 2013 by mullender83

[snowmadchrisuk]

We're nowhere near last chance saloon yet, there could be changes right up to the event, not quite the same synoptic as this coming weekend but I remember one year a snow event that was forecast for the south, all was on track the night before but the following morning the south was bone dry and the lp was pushed south into France instead, so who knows, we could see last minute changes to the track that would have a huge impact to what we see falling out of the sky!

We could .... But We have Broad Agreement across all Models at the moment .. The only disagreement showing is how quickly the Mild air get's mixed out ... We will need a miracle now to get Snow in Weston .. Coastal town's often suffer in setups like this. Our best Chance in Mon Night/ Tuesday and we will have to hope Some organised Showers will move over from the East..

[chris55]

This from Ian pretty much sums up Sunday/Monday

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

Worth re-stressing that we can only broadly highlight potential snow areas Sun-Mon at this juncture. Still some way to go with model nuances

The fact that the Low is "spinning up" in situ means that the forecast is a lot more difficult forecast than having a fully formed low bumping up against a cold airmass. It is a very dynamic situation and how the low develops and the precise track will effect different area in different ways.

Here is the ECM mean for 72h, we can see the Lows centre is in the channel, whilst the op has it over Wales, all very insignificant on the broad scale pattern but absolutely crucial for snow in someone's back garden/travel disruption etc!!!!!

Edited February 8, 2013 by chris55

[snowmadchrisuk]

Looks like a possible Repeat Slider during the Middle of next week on the 6z, I wonder if we will do any better .....

[offerman]

So weird, if a deep low as shown in Chris55 posts was to appear over Germany, everywhere there would get about 20-30cm or more snow from that.

The problem we had now is no deep cold on us before it arrive, now had this been 2010 and this low hit us, what a snowfest.

We have never had any really deep cold on us the whole winter , (youtube ian Mckaskill snow forecast ) now that showed how things can be in this country.

[bradymk]

Agreed. High stakes but not yet high resolution. V v tricky, as even 00z-06z GFS variations attest.

Yes and as Nick says in model thread, the low has not even developed yet so we do not know if any model has the correct track currently. Certainly thinks will be helped by Hi Res NAE and NMM but this seems a lampost radar watch event, again.

[Nights King]

Yes and as Nick says in model thread, the low has not even developed yet so we do not know if any model has the correct track currently. Certainly thinks will be helped by Hi Res NAE and NMM but this seems a lampost radar watch event, again.

Or even a rubber dingy event... white water rafting anyone...

[snowmadchrisuk]

GFS 6z = 7-8 deg SW - 2-3 deg Midlands. these are maxes for 18z Monday ... I agree slight changes in track are obviously still possible, but whatever happens the Low will have a Warm Sector and the SW will be the most vulnerable to it..

[Bristawl Si]

This from Ian pretty much sums up Sunday/Monday

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

Worth re-stressing that we can only broadly highlight potential snow areas Sun-Mon at this juncture. Still some way to go with model nuances

The fact that the Low is "spinning up" in situ means that the forecast is a lot more difficult forecast than having a fully formed low bumping up against a cold airmass. It is a very dynamic situation and how the low develops and the precise track will effect different area in different ways.

Here is the ECM mean for 72h, we can see the Lows centre is in the channel, whilst the op has it over Wales, all very insignificant on the broad scale pattern but absolutely crucial for snow in someone's back garden/travel disruption etc!!!!!

That's a top post, Chris!

[quantock girl]

Brady, I've just been lurking in the model thread and Nick's post did give me a glimmer of hope as well. Even TEIS is suggesting a move SW too. Yes, I'm an optimist so I will watch, wait, see and hope for some movement from the still unborn low.

[cerneman]

Yes and as Nick says in model thread, the low has not even developed yet so we do not know if any model has the correct track currently. Certainly thinks will be helped by Hi Res NAE and NMM but this seems a lampost radar watch event, again.

Exactly, Very dynamic situation, We are only looking at predictions from models at moment, and even they disagree to exact tracking,

[quantock girl]

Or even a rubber dingy event... white water rafting anyone...

I'll just get rip roaringly drunk me thinks - still trying to plant our September wheat, not looking good at all if more rain sweeps in. The food industry seems to have come up with a variety of ways to combat meat shortage, not sure how we could combat a wheat one!!!

[legritter]

There is still time for correction on where the low forms late sunday .but i still think we are in with a chance of at least a rain to snow event .this one is going to be a nail biting time and all the time colder air is setting up to our east so atleast we could get other chances .it will be interesting to see what Met office warnings are put out this morning with latest data now being looked over at exeter . currently raining but odd bit of sleet when coming over mendip earlier .

[snowmadchrisuk]

There is still time for correction on where the low forms late sunday .but i still think we are in with a chance of at least a rain to snow event .this one is going to be a nail biting time and all the time colder air is setting up to our east so atleast we could get other chances .it will be interesting to see what Met office warnings are put out this morning with latest data now being looked over at exeter . currently raining but odd bit of sleet when coming over mendip earlier .

If there is a chance it won't be Sunday though ... We will be looking at Monday (early hours) at the earliest , and that would require a big correction South and West on current projections ... Some of the experts think it can still happen so will have to see .. I'm firmly on the fence ... Have little evidence though , The closest the Snowline get's on the GFS this morning is below ..

Edited February 8, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[TwisterGirl81]

Just as well in Exeter we've had far more than our fair share of downgrades, as I've said before and ill say again bring on summer! Fed up of this winter which has been one big wet squib...to those area's that had Lady Luck on your side this winter and saw good settling snow, not all of us in lower levels of Exeter, south Devon and Cornwall have been that lucky!

[Nights King]

If there is a chance it won't be Sunday though ... We will be looking at Monday (early hours) at the earliest , and that would require a big correction South and West on current projections ... Some of the experts think it can still happen so will have to see .. I'm firmly on the fence ... Have little evidence though , The closest the Snowline get's on the GFS this morning is below ..

Like you say there is a chance but we need to see south westwards correction over the next few runs, if it is still saying no come the 12z I shall be close to throwing the towel in and looking forward to the next possible cold spell and probably the last of the official winter. This could turn out to be a very wet sunday with some sleety showers monday abit like today.

Roll on the 12Z...

Edited February 8, 2013 by mullender83

[gottolovethisweather]

Just as well in Exeter we've had far more than our fair share of downgrades, as I've said before and ill say again bring on summer! Fed up of this winter which has been one big wet squib...to those area's that had Lady Luck on your side this winter and saw good settling snow, not all of us in lower levels of Exeter, south Devon and Cornwall have been that lucky!

I'd prefer Spring to come along at first if you don't mind. Come Spring, the season of change will move from one moment being Summer like and the next back to Winter, got to love it. Rabbits will be going along with their usual rabbit like behaviour, wildlife will be full on in love and hate for each other in equal doses. The birds will be singing and the sights and sounds of our countryside will be alive with birdsound.

Then we can have our Summer heatwaves and occasional Thunderstorms.

Edited February 8, 2013 by gottolovethisweather