Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[Duane S.]

Any sort of easterly is by no means in the bag, most of next weeks weather could be very much like this

Mainly dry with a light easterly feed.

Looks decent enough to me.

[Harsh Climate]

I suppose IMBY wise it is good for you, not for the other 99% of us though

[Continental Climate]

Any sort of easterly is by no means in the bag, most of next weeks weather could be very much like this

Mainly dry with a light easterly feed.

Too true i wouldnt even call that chart an easterly more like a cold uk high with slight continental influences in the far south

[Tim Bland]

I was shot down in flames last night for saying that the optimism of snow next week depends on where you live. I stand by the theory that it's of those in the extreme east and south east that will SE anything of note. Elsewhere its a case of occasional light flurries. A certain member from Kent has got this forum whipped up into a frenzy when 90% of readers don't live in Kent or a few miles inland from the east coast.

[SMU]

ECM looks very good at 72

[Sussex snowstorm]

I love these charts soo far as I love on the south east coast soo best area for the fun but anywhere further south that high pressure then it will be nothing apart from cold and dry, any further north then it would be better for northen areas, just a waiting game susspose

[Tamara]

The trigger low for the upper cold looks stronger to me on the ECM at t72 - and favourable orientation towards us

Edited February 16, 2013 by Tamara Road

[cold snap]

At 96 we might be struggling colder air diverting to south west

[Continental Climate]

HHMMMM!! could be even further south than the ukmo of the same time http://www.meteociel...CH1-96.GIF?16-0!! Cold and frosty all the way folks!! Just my opinion

120 is crucial otherwise game over IMO

Edited February 16, 2013 by Continental Climate

[Harsh Climate]

Ecm looks like everything is further south yet again, by tommorow we MAY end up with no easterly at all lol.

[BARRY]

What's interesting me (synoptically and IMBY I confess!) is the scenario of an ESE blowing down the south coast in -8C 850s (a few model runs have shown this). Has this ever happened before? Lived on south coast for 20 years, can't recall it ever happening for more than a few hours - but, theoretically, it would surely lead to significant snowfall throughout the region, especially in places such as South Devon. Is there a precedent for a prolonged such setup?

ESE is one of the best directions for us for snow, this year we have not seen a flake so far, so the models at the moment are just as we would like them

[chris55]

EC 120

[A.J]

I was shot down in flames last night for saying that the optimism of snow next week depends on where you live. I stand by the theory that it's of those in the extreme east and south east that will SE anything of note. Elsewhere its a case of occasional light flurries. A certain member from Kent has got this forum whipped up into a frenzy when 90% of readers don't live in Kent or a few miles inland from the east coast.

Well Tim if you are referring to me that couldn't be further from the point

Obviously you struggle to read the posts. Maybe a spell on a different forum would suffice

knock it on the head please, the pair of you............it's getting like a kindergarten in here at times....strewth!.......constructive criticism is welcome on this forum and in this thread....personal remarks and attacks are not!.....cheers fellas!....and back to the model output discussion

[Jason M]

EC 120

Awful chart , if you like it warm!!!

Jason

[Mucka]

Well Tim if you are referring to me that couldn't be further from the point

Obviously you struggle to read the posts. Maybe a spell on a different forum would suffice

Yes we should all remember these forums are SE centric so no point in believing this one will be any different.

On that note ECM 120 still has the SE in -10 uppers with snow possibilities.

[london-snow]

Out to 120+ & its a great run again for south eastern areas.

In truth though placement of the high will not be sorted out for a while yet 200 miles north or south can make a big difference to the outcome.

Edited February 16, 2013 by london-snow

[Continental Climate]

well I will admit slightly better than i was expecting http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?16-0!! Definite snow event for south east on this chart unfortunately cant see the high being any further north than the 120 shows too much low pressure directly north of it. However i see retrogression to greenie/iceland on the 144 and a poss northerly?

Haha what do i know http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Edited February 16, 2013 by Continental Climate

[shuggee]

Model discussion please

[Weathizard]

Unfortunately there is going to be IMBY'ism because things look fantastic for the S/SE but the north looks to miss out at first. Don't worry yet Northern Folk anyway its not over yet and if any fronts approach everyone will get in on the action.

ECM at 120 has nice clean low heading under the block with -10/12 uppers.

[Summer Sun]

t144 looks ok for the SE snow wise else where cold, settled and probably cloudy for many

Edited February 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[SMU]

The ECM at 120 has the -10 line running from the wash all the way to Bristol in a developing convective flow

I would consider the ECM an upgrade over a wider area,.......

[Tamara]

We see at t144 the High edge westwards towards Iceland and at the same time a swathe of lower pressure from the SW approaches across the channel and France. Bitterly cold air pulled faster from the east with low dewpoints

Edited February 16, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Continental Climate]

Unfortunately there is going to be IMBY'ism because things look fantastic for the S/SE but the north looks to miss out at first. Don't worry yet Northern Folk anyway its not over yet and if any fronts approach everyone will get in on the action.

ECM at 120 has nice clean low heading under the block with -10/12 uppers.

Dont count your chickens yet mate still five days to go plenty of time for it to head south another 150 miles in which case your goosed, hope it dosent though as if you havent had any snow yet i dont begrudge you some. However it would still be better for EVERYONE if it was north

[Summer Sun]

t168

Cold and dry for many

[TEITS]

Just a quickie

Whilst im happy with the 12Zs I would ideally like to see a shift N of the overall pattern. We would then ideally see more members locations experiencing snowfall instead of being restricted from E Anglia to SE. The shift S & N will occur many times over the next few days but what we don't need to see is anymore shifts S. Very few of us live in the Channel Islands!