Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[The Eagle]

It's good enough to 156 but again it's the constant delay that's a bit irritating. Another 12 hr delay on cold uppers propagating west. And we need the trend of the hp being further south to hopefully stop. Good 18z but it's the trend that's not so good.

[Jason M]

by day 7 snow starting to move up through the low countries. This type of scenario might be the best we can hope for as were not really getting the rub of the green at the moment.

Jason

[Derecho]

Rather Bland run for the GFS 18z at close range with even more of a southwards correction!

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn1441.html

There has been a theme for heights to the NW but still a loong way off.

At this rate only the channel islands will receive snow.

Ians thoughts earlier seem to be showing in the output now, the incapability of a strongly negative NAO showing its hand once again. The output next week looks rather boring for the vast majority of the UK.

Only one run but it's beginning to resembles the first half of last December a lot!

Roll on Spring.... the lack of serious heights to our NW has stopped this winter being a classic. Despite having a lot of ingredients for a very cold winter in place beforehand we havn't really managed to get anything special, rather something very normal. (slightly colder infact but consistently near normal)

March can still surprise but the likelihood of really notable cold spells starts diminishing now. Maybe a Greenland high could develop but we shall see... Hopefully something that will feature more next winter.

It can still change but the closer we get the less likely we will see a correction in our favour given the trends today.

Edited February 16, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[shotski]

Bland Run my foot, Epic run come t-240 IMHO. lets see.

[Timmytour]

This is post of the season for me, and why they do it has got more of an underlying reasoning behind it IMO.....at last....well done Carinthian, also notice how there is over emphasis on norm temps as almost springlike!

Models show a bitterly cold outlook, nothing changed for me its all playing out before us.....although SE and S is favourewd currently for snow initially.

Also I maintain that the block will retrogress to prolong the cold thrust too, some models showing that too

BFTP

i think that's hardly fair BFTP..... i think the Met0 have been very good in their handling of this winter personally, and by listening to and taking some of the advice on here, they would have made themselves look laughable. I seem to even remember a post of yours back in January urging them to put out a scarmongering warning which proved totally unnecessary and would have looked ridiculous in hindsight.

As things stood yesterday there seemed to be a consensus on here that the snow by the end of the week would be a lot heavier and significant than the Meto was telling us....tonight the consensus seems to be its along the lines the Meto were saying!

Most of us want the bitter cold, most of us lnog for it, hope for it, and grab every straw going to anticipate it's coming.

i love looking at the models and all the anticipating and reactionary posts to what they are doing. i love the banter. I love looking at a dream run almost as much as getting the weather itself! (well, not really, but you know what i mean )

But thank goodness the public out there have some fine well balanced, level-headed forecasters delivering their verdict of what the weather will be!

[Nick F]

Not so much a Southward correction but more of a flabby high with heights too high for convection other than flurries for the East Coast and perhaps the far SE.

Have to agree with you Ian, can't really see any significant snowfall next week as it stands and that's not just from looking at one operational. A glance at skew-ts - as some of you may have seen John H post in the Tech thread - suggests cloud depth will be shallow off the North Sea due to weak lapse rates - so light snow flurries towards eastern coasts the general theme - perhaps penetrating into central areas, but the west probably staying dry and clear. Maybe chance of more persistent light/moderate snow developing across the SE for a time as the NW edge of the continental cold pool sinking SW clips here.

This doesn't look like a classic convective heavy snow shower easterly set-up to me after watching several runs from the big three churn out with similar outcomes.

[frosty ground]

A week or so of cooler weather now seems almost certain from Wednesday this spell also looks a fairly dry one on both the GFS ensembles and now the ECM one of course that doesn't rule out snow cropping up in places

There is a continued trend to something milder as the month ends and spring arrives but before we get there we have one last shot of cold and potential snow for winter 2012 / 2013

Can you explain how the ensembles of a point in Europe says its dry in the uk?

[Eskimo]

Bland run for the GFS 18z at close range with even more of a southwards correction!

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn1441.html

There has been a theme for heights to the NW but still a loong way off.

At this rate only the channel islands will receive snow.

Ians thoughts earlier seem to be showing in the output now, the incapability of a strongly negative NAO showing its hand once again. The output next week looks rather boring for the vast majority of the UK.

Only one run but it's beginning to resembles the first half of last December a lot!

Roll on Spring.... the lack of serious heights to our NW has stopped this winter being a classic. Despite having a lot of ingredients for a very cold winter in place beforehand we havn't really managed to get anything special, rather something very normal.

March can still surprise but the likelihood of really notable cold spells starts diminishing now. Maybe a Greenland high could develop but we shall see... Hopefully something that will feature more next winter.

It can still change but the closer we get the less likely we will see a correction in our favour given the trends today.

Am I reading this correctly? We are going into a period of about a week so far with temperatures barely getting above freezing with the potential for very cold nights with harsh frosts under clear skies. These synoptics could only be dreamed of for nearly 2 decades prior to 2009.

Edited February 16, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[Jason M]

Yep, snow evetually moves up from the continent. At face value a decent dollop of the white stuff moving NW. This is all just for fun though as of course at that range it is pretty much impossible to pin down any detail aside fro broadscale synoptics.

Navgem goes for a similar scenario but much more aggresively and earlier from snowkings postings earlier.

So, all subject to change of course but this evenings prognosis is largely dry, getting steadily colder with flurries in the SE by day 5. By day 7 maybe more notable snow moving up from the continent.

In terms of trends everything is shifting gently south. Hopefully tommorow will reverse that process.

Jason

[Tim Bland]

Bland Run my foot, Epic run come t-240 IMHO. lets see.

Looks Bland to me lol http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

High pressure sticks around on this run

[Derecho]

Am I reading this correctly? We are going into a period of about a week so far with temperatures barely getting above freezing with the potential for very cold nights with harsh frosts under clear skies. These synoptics could only be dreamed of as little as a few years ago.

Daytime temps will be around 3-4C around the CET area as a rough guide and -2 to -6 quite widespread but dry for a lot of the uk with only the SE getting some snow on this run. Uppers may well be below -10C in the SE at times but high pressure could cap the convective potential a fair bit.

For the SE/ Far South/ Channel Islands the excitement is understandable.

However for most of the UK it looks rather cold and clear. It would have generated more excitement a few years back but this was because we went through an unprecedented high amount of warmer then average winter months coinciding with a lack of snowfall from 1988 - 2008.

Edited February 16, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[The Eagle]

18z NAVGEM shows exactly what we want to see ideally synoptically.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1&carte=0&archive=0

[Liam J]

Looks like a prolonged spell of mainly dry and chilly weather coming up after the initial risk of some light snow showers towards the east & south east. Winter then perhaps leaving us on a rather quiet note with some sharp frosts by night and cool days, with light winds and the stronger sun at this time of year it would feel fairly pleasant but obviously this depends on cloud amounts.

Edited February 16, 2013 by Liam J

[seabreeze86]

Am I reading this correctly? We are going into a period of about a week so far with temperatures barely getting above freezing with the potential for very cold nights with harsh frosts under clear skies. These synoptics could only be dreamed of as little as a few years ago.

Very true 2009 and 2010 have changed peoples expectations that for sure. For those of us at started on the old bbc forum many moons ago when we used to get excited over northerly topplers, these are great charts and there is still room for upgrades and downgrades. Anybody who thinks that the models have the exact positioning of the scandi high and the cut of low in the Med are mistaken.

Shortwaves often occour at 72 hours out usually to our dissadvantage but we might get lucky for once and one could push up out of the Low and strighten up our easterly. Wishfull thinking i no but its still on the table, JUST

Edited February 16, 2013 by seabreeze86

[SnowObsessor90]

Could the GFS have had this right to begin with? as the more this trend continues the more it looks that's the sort of direction we're heading in....

Edited February 16, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[Jason M]

Lets see where this sits in the ensembles. Have to say though its very typical of the 12Z set.

Unfortunately, this is starting to look pretty ordinary based on tonights opp runs. Were still looking to 5-7 days away though so still some wriggle room to see something more exciting. Nothing here though to call into question Fergies views as per METO.

Jason

[mountain shadow]

And tonights GFS is sponsored by zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.........

Fair play to the met office. We're quick to knock them, but they have nailed this cool dry spell perfectly before Spring arrives. Maybe Folkestone will see some snow though.

[Geordiesnow]

As I said last night, looks like next week will be a dry one but sunshine amounts being more limited as we get cloud rolling in off the North Sea, there might still just be enough for some limited convection for some parts of the East but in all honesty, I'm getting more and more confident that there will be very little snow next week. And how can anyone see a easterly sustaining with such a strong PV being projected to come out from the Arctic into Scandi so as per the norm in these set ups, we may see a Northerly coming into play but again, from past experiences, these tend to flood into Scandi whilst the UK is just to close to high pressure.

Its a wait and see process but whilst it will turn colder, I don't see much in the way of disruptive snowfall coming into play really.

Edited February 16, 2013 by Geordiesnow

[The watcher]

Daytime temps will be around 3-4C around the CET area as a rough guide and -2 to -6 quite widespread but dry for a lot of the uk with only the SE getting some snow on this run. Uppers may well be below -10C in the SE at times but high pressure could cap the convective potential a fair bit.

For the SE/ Far South/ Channel Islands the excitement is understandable.

However for most of the UK it looks rather cold and clear. It would have generated more excitement a few years back but this was because we went through an unprecedented amount of warmer then average winter months coinciding with a lack of snowfall from 1988 - 2008.

Yes, definitely precipitation is going to be the key thing here. Needs to be strong flow or divergence will cap precipitation, adding to the high pressure profile.

[shaky]

Nogaps is a beauty so far!!better than 12z!!!i think there is still time for things to be pushed north!

[Long haul to mild]

And tonights GFS is sponsored by zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.........

Fair play to the met office. We're quick to knock them, but they have nailed this cool dry spell perfectly before Spring arrives. Maybe Folkestone will see some snow though.

No-one has nailed anything yet as far as I am concerned. The position of the HP at this time frame is still far from certain, so no backslapping for anyone from me as yet!

And I am willing to bet that the onset of March is not likely to usher in spring very quickly either.

[Ian Brown]

Nogaps is a beauty so far!!better than 12z!!!i think there is still time for things to be pushed north!

There is time, not much time but still a chance for changes tomorrow. An underwhelming borefest from the 18z, though the models want to edge the block NW, there is nothing to suggest yet that it can end up residing over Greenland, which is what we would need to pull in the cold air to the NE.

[Dexter29]

And tonights GFS is sponsored by zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.........

Fair play to the met office. We're quick to knock them, but they have nailed this cool dry spell perfectly before Spring arrives. Maybe Folkestone will see some snow though.

And tonight's posts (moans) are sponsored by Zzzzzzzzzzzzz

IMO the GFS 18z is good and continues the easterly theme for next week with cold and flurries by day 5 (for my location anyway)

Potential for snow at the weekend moving up from the Low Countries. but that's all relative.

As long as we don't see a continuation of a gentle push south, I'm confident of snow for my area next week.

So what if its only a flurry, I'm not naive enough to think another 91 event will happen!

I'll take a flurry over zonal crap any day!

[Weather-history]

Looks like a prolonged spell of mainly dry and chilly weather coming up after the initial risk of some light snow showers towards the east & south east. Winter then perhaps leaving us on a rather quiet note with some sharp frosts by night and cool days, with light winds and the stronger sun at this time of year it would feel fairly pleasant but obviously this depends on cloud amounts.

I think that is the key, we do not know how clear the flow will be, it could be a cloudy flow. It could end up being largely cloudy, little snow, limited frosts and chilly days. Shelter western areas would be best favoured for breaks in this set up. I get the feeling that is what is going to end up as.

[Geordiesnow]

And tonight's posts (moans) are sponsored by Zzzzzzzzzzzzz

IMO the GFS 18z is good and continues the easterly theme for next week with cold and flurries by day 5 (for my location anyway)

Potential for snow at the weekend moving up from the Low Countries. but that's all relative.

As long as we don't see a continuation of a gentle push south, I'm confident of snow for my area next week.

So what if its only a flurry, I'm not naive enough to think another 91 event will happen!

I'll take a flurry over zonal crap any day!

I guess its more understandable for your area to be more excited by the output but I think the trend seems quite strongly that the further South you are, the more likely you be in the coldest air so less of a switch further North could result in a very different type of weather but the models do seem fairly confident the main easterly flow will head into France.