Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[london-snow]

Sorry I now it's off subject.but do people put posts like this up in the summer telling people it's gona rain when the forecast is for warm weather .

Sorry but what point are you making here?

I was simply laughing out loud due to the dismissive nature of the original post.

[BM4PM]

I'd trade this Easterly for another warm spell in March like last year, got to 21C here

South east was very chilly in feb last year and they had warm temps in march . So we could have both

[Barry12]

I concur. Brave post on this forum, incidentally ;-)

I am a big fan of cold and snow but also like warm and sunny weather. I have seen a lot of snow this winter, including a foot of snow in my backyard at one point, so whilst I understand some Southerners wanting another cold spell, I don't mind that much

[BM4PM]

Sorry but what point are you making here?

I was simply laughing out loud due to the dismissive nature of the original post.

I was remarking on the original post,it wasn't directed at your amusement of the original post

Edited February 16, 2013 by BM4PM

[Argyle1980]

I'd trade this Easterly for another warm spell in March like last year, got to 21C here

as long as the summer is good a can sacrifice a warm spring,

I find when we have a warm spring the summer is a wash out .

[Barry12]

South east was very chilly in feb last year and they had warm temps in march . So we could have both

That's what happened here too, we had a couple of ice days and a fall of 15cm in Feb 2012.

[TEITS]

Slightly clearer picture emerging.

Around Wednesday is when light snow flurries could begin to develop across E parts especially later on into Thursday morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1021.png

The real interest though begins towards the latter end of the week as we see instability increase bringing heavier snow showers which could push further inland.

I will also add that it was said that we might see a risk of snow into SW parts moving N. Well sorry but none of the models indicate this and to be honest they never did. Im not going to mention any names though!

[fergieweather]

Re my post above, here's a sample UKMO-GM tephi for 00z Fri in the southern N Sea to peruse.... complete with Normand's Construction. Compare to GFS for same time (as accesssed via NOAA READY site I earlier circulated):

[bradymk]

I will also add that it was said that we might see a risk of snow into SW parts moving N. Well sorry but none of the models indicate this and to be honest they never did.

To be fair, the models were hinting at possible slider lows and snow from the south west a few days ago. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=1&mois=2&heure=12&jour=14&annee=2013 This was the ECM 2 days ago, different to the current output but it did hint at possible snow moving up from the SW.

[BM4PM]

That's what happened here too, we had a couple of ice days and a fall of 15cm in Feb 2012.

Weather doesn't now what it wants to do. A few years back I played football and it belted down with snow but by half time it felt like spring. 2005 I think .

Edited February 16, 2013 by BM4PM

[SnowObsessor90]

as long as the summer is good a can sacrifice a warm spring,

I find when we have a warm spring the summer is a wash out .

I personally wouldn't bank on that, I was under the assumption that last spring being wet would be a good omen for the summer to follow but in reality it was anything but lol

Edited February 16, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[TEITS]

To be fair, the models were hinting at possible slider lows and snow from the south west a few days ago. http://www.meteociel...r=14&annee=2013 This was the ECM 2 days ago, different to the current output but it did hint at possible snow moving up from the SW.

Indeed 2 days ago but since then its looked very unlikely for the period in question. Why though has some continued to suggest this is a possibility?

Never understand why a bunch of amateurs have yet again been 24/48hrs ahead of others, happens every winter!

[MKN]

Indeed- As pointed out- higher cloud tops & heavier snow is in prospect...

the much maligned GFS has suddenly become the model of choice-

In favour of the top performing ECM

which with a gentle goodnight I will remind everyone of the day 6 chart - MEAN

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021612/EDM1-144.GIF?16-0

S

Gfs the model you always say is worst of the big 3?...

And yet that's the best chart you can find from it...

Simple facts are the outlook is dry for most if not all of the UK as things stand right now. Of course the far south east may still see something but if there was a further shift south tommorow like today then that would rule that out aswell. At the same time snowfall for anywhere in the uk at somepoint during this potential cold spell is still fairly high as often a breakdown of the cold does see an increased chance of snow. its just a shame we don't appear to be getting much towards the start of the cold spell to be able to enjoy snow on the ground for a sustained period of time.

Aside from that there is still time for an improvement so hopefully we will see one tommorow.

[Davey80]

Would be nice to see some more snow before the end of the winter as this could be the last I see of it here before moving to Ontario, Canada at the end of this year.

[Weather-history]

Can anyone remember the January 2010 easterly debacle? Even a few hours out and what look favourable synoptics is still not a guarantee that anything will come of it.

[fergieweather]

To be fair, the models were hinting at possible slider lows and snow from the south west a few days ago. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=1&mois=2&heure=12&jour=14&annee=2013 This was the ECM 2 days ago, different to the current output but it did hint at possible snow moving up from the SW.

Ditto GFS. At the time you may recall UKMO gave it 10% PROB. Anyway, past history now.

[Argyle1980]

I wouldn't bank on that, I thought that last spring being wet would be good omen for the summer to but in reality it was anything but with only a few brief warm blips here and there.

only thing is ours was warm down here in Cornwall till it changed in April .

To often have I seen good springs and rubbish summers .

Fingers x we all need a British summer.

I love my seasons :-) night all.

[Vince]

The problem is that low that sits south of Greenland and east of Newfoundland. I can't see how favourable retrogression can occur whilst that low sits there.

and sods law will dictate that low will move come June 1st and Greenland highs will be present till September

[Jason M]

Indeed 2 days ago but since then its looked very unlikely for the period in question. Why though has some continued to suggest this is a possibility?

Never understand why a bunch of amateurs have yet again been 24/48hrs ahead of others, happens every winter!

More likely from the SE based on current output. A few of the ensembles bring some decent snow events.

Jason

[legritter]

look at tonights 120fax it broadly puts us in a good position ,but it all at this stage could go many ways .the atlantic could creap up from s/west ,lets see the next fax tomorrow, we all could be surprised .as i said it could be a painfull ride but worth it for some .at this range snow potential would be very hard to predict .i certainly wont be getting the t shirts out just yet .

[bradymk]

Ditto GFS. At the time you may recall UKMO gave it 10% PROB. Anyway, past history now.

Quick question Ian, "with some thicker cloud also spreading into the southwest at times giving some outbreaks of rain and hill snow. This may then possibly spread east to affect some other parts of the south during the weekend." Just wondering whether you know anymore information about this quote which i got from the further outlook update earlier. It suggests precip in the south west spreading east next weekend but I can't really see this in any model output right now. Just wondering if you knew what the MetO are thinking regarding this or is this now out of date? Thanks. Edited February 17, 2013 by bradythemole

[TEITS]

Can anyone remember the January 2010 easterly debacle? Even a few hours out and what look favourable synoptics is still not a guarantee that anything will come of it.

Isn't that when N Ireland got absolutely nailed with heavy snowfall which was totally unexpected?

Sorry I was thinking of another occasion which occurred a few years earlier.

Edited February 17, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[legritter]

if tonights 120fax was for 23rd december , this place would be in meltdown ,all to play for gang ,keep the hope alive .

[Duane S.]

Good grief, painful viewing on here tonight, the charts continue to look perfectly good to me, southwards corrections n all.

The usual misery being conveyed by people taking every frame of every run of every model as absolute gospel. It really is so exhausting and dull having to view these posters putting themselves through this day after day after day... Anyway, the fact remains it can hardly ever be good for everyone in the UK all at the same time, this time it looks more favourable for the S/SE/E initially but... that doesn't mean that a) it may change (for the worse or better) and b ) things may look better for the N later on.

One thing's for sure though, it is going to feel bitter for 90% of us towards the end of next week!

Edited February 17, 2013 by s4lancia

[Timmytour]

Gfs the model you always say is worst of the big 3?...

And yet that's the best chart you can find from it...

Erm.... a bit curious as to why you think Steve M would put up the mean as the "best chart"?