Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[Weathizard]

Dont count your chickens yet mate still five days to go plenty of time for it to head south another 150 miles in which case your goosed, hope it dosent though as if you havent had any snow yet i dont begrudge you some. However it would still be better for EVERYONE if it was north

Not at all, that's why I said things look fantastic for the S/SE which they do, to be honest I've had to endure a few times this winter where the north gets smashed by snow and down here its miserable and cold rain. Don't think anyone should begrudge the West country and far south as we haven't had much at all this winter. I do hope it edges north though as you said, for the whole of the UK sake.

To me, looking at 120/144 charts of all models I can still see Retrogression towards Greenland after this time, seems to be "trending" west.

[stratty]

The ECM at 120 has the -10 line running from the wash all the way to Bristol in a developing convective flow

I would consider the ECM an upgrade over a wider area,.......

.....i'd still like to see your little Swiss 'knob' holding up that LP a bit more, was it last nights run you pointed out this?

[Summer Sun]

Very little change at t192 the high remains dominant for many

The colder uppers start to ease

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Fantastic ECM run, did anyone expect anything less. Winter is gonna go out with a bang. Snow can turn up anywhere with embedded troughs etc so everyone should stay positive, its much healthier for the mind.

[frosty ground]

Very little change at t192 the high remains dominant for many

The colder uppers start to ease

Why not comment on the high backing west?

[Cloud 10]

I see the easterly drama is now in full swing,and no doubt will get wilder as we approach zero hour.

Nice to see the ECM backing away from its "high slipping south-east" scenario that

it was projecting a couple of days ago.

[Tim Bland]

Ensembles show just how dry the next 7 days or so will be. Even in London there's next to no precipitation in any of the ensemble members. A cold and dry week away from Kent / Norfolk and eastern coastal counties

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

[Harsh Climate]

Our blocking high is further west

Hopefully this will aid a much colder plunge from the north/north east later on in the run. That's when the real fun could begin ; ), not this probable phantom easterly..

Edited February 16, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[nick sussex]

Is it any wonder why the UKMO aren't saying too much because the placement of the high is critical for snow prospects and where it will be come the day is still anyones guess.

Tonight theres been a southwards trend but this may well get shunted further north again, looking at the key timeframes theres not a lot of energy running over the top and that trough disruption should eject some energy in towards Iberia and the Med to help kick those lower heights a bit further north.

A real positive is that at least the cold pool to the east looks better, this was a problem on previous ECM runs.

[frosty ground]

Then by 216 it heads north west

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

PV dropping in to say hi

[Tamara]

Well was mean to spend a week in france nexr week but cancelled regretting that decision now the ecm is still good but the trend to go south is there but wanst there a trend yesterday for the winds to be se than e?

Nick S has been at the controls of the ECM Especially good for those over the channel

[Harsh Climate]

Yep as I thought, better for the future

Forget about this poosy easterly, it's how far back can the atlantic be kept west and how much could this real cold plunge dig south west into our blocking high!

Edited February 16, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yep as I thought, better for the future

Forget about this poosy easterly, it's how far back can the atlantic be kept west and how much could this real cold plunge dig south west into our blocking high!

It's always been about that for me. Been bumbling about keeping tabs these past few days

[chris55]

I think tonight's charts are trending to what the MET have been saying over the last 24 hours, the main risk of snow from the easterly has most definitely trended south on today's 12zs, across the board, probably tying in with MOGREPS and DECIDER from yesterday ect.

However at day 6/7+ changes in the output are odds on. Lets hope we get a northward shift, if we do then Feb 91 could be on the cards, if not then cold and MAINLY dry looks the best bet for the majority ( and to note a cold frosty period has been very lacking this winter).

Plenty of time for more positve trends yet and what happens after the weekend is open to question. And tonight that is trending in a much better direction than yesterday,

Edited February 16, 2013 by chris55

[london-snow]

Ensembles show just how dry the next 7 days or so will be. Even in London there's next to no precipitation in any of the ensemble members. A cold and dry week away from Kent / Norfolk and eastern coastal counties

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

LOL precip ensembles are pointless in these types of situations where convective potential is a possibility.

It cannot predict things like ~

A ~ Showers ~Convective~

B ~ Disturbances

C ~ Streamers

Edited February 16, 2013 by london-snow

[Zenarcher]

I really like the outputs at the moment we are witnessing some of the best runs of this winter some will say it is the best of the winter so far. Overall it does look to be a cold blocked set up and where snow will exactly fall is difficult to pin point at the moment, I would just enjoy these outputs and not get stressed up over it for my area and being on a island I'm very unlikely to get anything at all, I've only seen a few flakes of snow this winter that's it.

[nick sussex]

Nick S has been at the controls of the ECM Especially good for those over the channel

Lol! I will gladly have cold rain if it helps cheer this thread up with a good shunt north in the pattern. After the snow drama of earlier in the week down here I don't want any snow unless its the dry powdery variety not that wet stuff which left carnage! ( See the moan thread for full details of my hedge drama!!!)

I'm really happy to see a northwards trend for you guys, lots of snow in the mountains here so its all yours!

[Panayiotis]

240hrs not bad that deep low would undercut and as it does so it should move heights towards Greenland.

[Cheshire Freeze]

OH YES come to to Daddy!

Great thing about that chart is the high cannot 'overshoot' to a WB -NAO as it's boxed in by troughing either side. Something that has lacked in the output thus far

[Harsh Climate]

ECM 240 is getting near to something brilliant

[Weather-history]

Great thing about that chart is the high cannot 'overshoot' to a WB -NAO as it's boxed in by troughing either side. Something that has lacked in the output thus far

Trouble is it, it needs to go west to allow that PV to sink into Scandinavia. The "box" as you put it needs to be further west otherwise the cold plunge is further east as can be seen in that ECM 240hr chart.

[shotski]

ECM 240 is getting near to something brilliant

Nail on the head, But quicker than is currently progged.

No way do I see this HP shifting Se, Nw is where its heading.

[Jason M]

GEFS have trended south this evening as well although for the most part they are a little further north than ECM. A couple do miss us to the south though and thats a new development tonight. As others have suggested further changes are to be expected, but we are now at the southern extreme of the cone!

Hopefully tommorow we will get another little bump north. No point stressing though as the weather will do what it wants ultimately.

Just to add to Steves comment, hopefully the mods will be ruthless .

Jason

Edit: Where's OON these days? Nobody dispatches trolls with the panache of OON!!

Edited February 16, 2013 by Jason M

[Isolated Frost]

So, a cold east/north-easterly with snow showers for southern parts and high pressure dominated clearer skies and cold nights for the north and west. The high then retrogresses allowing -ve anomalies to build over Scandinavia accompanied by a strong sector of the PV, allowing a more northerly/north-easterly arctic airstream as we close out the meteorological winter.

That's just based on recent EC output though , wonder what Exeter is looking at.

[Methuselah]

So, after another installment of testosterone-fueled mud-slinging, are we all agreed that cold weather will arrive by Thursday, and that snow will fall somewhere, at some time, between then and next weekend?

Does that about sum it up?