Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[Bristawl Si]

Dry, cold - Meto never hinted at any other scenario.

The only other more extreme scenario was progged by the 'experts' on here.

Seems like a tame goodbye to Winter.

[davehsug]

Indeed 2 days ago but since then its looked very unlikely for the period in question. Why though has some continued to suggest this is a possibility?

Never understand why a bunch of amateurs have yet again been 24/48hrs ahead of others, happens every winter!

Because nobody remembers when you are wrong! You can post whatever pants you like on here & nobody cares. If the METO/BBC were to come out & say the same thing, there would be a bit of a stink. Get real Dave, you're better than some of the snipes you've been posting these last few weeks.

[nicknacknoo]

as stated previously, I'm new to this..... but honestly... what would you prefer?

High to the north (current) lows to the south (Easterlyflow)

or Highs to the south, lows to the north (westerly flow)

Surely it's a no brainer as regards current synoptics!!!)

Perhaps a little cold ramping can be allowed! Certaily as SM states, a little push from the south and we'll all be in Nirvanah (fergie grim land )

[nicknacknoo]

As i'ts again quiet at he moment.

I notice i've spent the last 2 saturdays studying thickness levels, 528 dams and the hysdrostatic equation.

I believe I may be turning into a sad git !

Could more experienced members tell me whethet this will:

a) Verify

b] Remain in FI

[bobbydog]

well.. ive been out having a life (for a change) just had a quick flick through the models and pretty much all of them say we are getting a decent easterly by +120hrs. cant be bothered to post all the charts but they're all here- http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php (thats ECM but all the links are there). we've struggled so far this winter to get synoptics like that but there they are and persistently so. some say its only the south east which will get anything out of this but so what? i live here and will take it. i've lived here 24 years (before which i lived in the north east and saw many decent winters during the '70's and '80's) and have only seen 3 decent winters since living here. 2 of which have been in the last 4 years, the previous being feb 1991. anyway, we cant call any snowfall at this range, lets just get the ingredients in place first.

[UV-RAY]

Just got back from a lovely evening out with Mrs SI and nothing has really changed on the MOD thread, we are still on course for a dry and cold spell with little in the way of snow for the majority. Oh well maybe next winter some won't be taken in by the promises of deep cold and heavy snow at the first chart that suggest such a scenario, then again!

[Bonjangle]

Makes me larf , all doom and gloom last week in here as knowbody could see a cold spell coming on .... it was all warmth and comfort to all .

Now models are showing a good week of cold and nice crispy days of clear and sunshine ... now thats what i do call a good time in uk weather .

If or not we dont get any snow ... after this cold snap ... i can see clearly that you all want a good warm spring and hot summer , i remember last march me and the wife was in the garden sunbathing for a few hours and i got a good tan from that .. enjoy what the weather throws at you as you will not get this weather any where else in this land we live in .... british and proud ... roll on spring

[london-snow]

All these comments saying cold & dry = Roll on spring !

We are yet to see where the crucial high ends up & how that will effect our weather from mid next week onwards.

Even if the positioning stays as it is currently being shown the south east could see a very decent cold spell with snow.

Great looking charts if you ask me.

[Cheshire Freeze]

All these comments saying cold & dry = Roll on spring !

We are yet to see where the crucial high ends up & how that will effect our weather from mid next week onwards.

Even if the positioning stays as it is currently being shown the south east could see a very decent cold spell with snow.

Great looking charts if you ask me.

Agreed. Nothing nailed on post 168 hours. I'm seeing maybe the first signs of more favourable retrogression of heights in the 7-10 day range today and feel the high slipping SE is a very low probability for reasons mentioned earlier.

The easterly, although potentially decent for those in the SE has never been my main focus. The main concern of mine is what happens after this as I don't want to see the Atlantic gain the upper hand. For this we don't want the high crumbling SE or the high to retogress to the west side of Greenland.

CFS still rock solid with its blocking scenario for March and has been for a matter of weeks

Personally I wouldn't be banking on a warm start to the first month of spring. Some will disagree but recent GFS runs have shown that even after a breakdown of the current projected spell, heights are keen to rise once more to the NE. Given the weakening of the Canadian vortex and the repeated attempts at a retrogressing high, I feel a successful attempt is nigh.

Edited February 17, 2013 by CreweCold

[Vince Coombes]

This is post of the season for me, and why they do it has got more of an underlying reasoning behind it IMO.....at last....well done Carinthian, also notice how there is over emphasis on norm temps as almost springlike!

Models show a bitterly cold outlook, nothing changed for me its all playing out before us.....although SE and S is favourewd currently for snow initially.

Also I maintain that the block will retrogress to prolong the cold thrust too, some models showing that too

BFTP

[london-snow]

Agreed. Nothing nailed on post 168 hours. I'm seeing maybe the first signs of more favourable retrogression of heights in the 7-10 day range today and feel the high slipping SE is a very low probability for reasons mentioned earlier.

The easterly, although potentially decent for those in the SE has never been my main focus. The main concern of mine is what happens after this as I don't want to see the Atlantic gain the upper hand. For this we don't want the high crumbling SE or the high to retogress to the west side of Greenland.

CFS still rock solid with its blocking scenario for March and has been for a matter of weeks

In all fairness cc nothing is nailed on past 72+ at this moment in time with the high yet to decide where it wants to park itself.

Hopefully the pattern will retrogress as you feel & put most of the uk under a cold & snowy spell to round off winter.

Anyway on to the 00z & let's hope the high starts to trend back that bit north.

Edited February 17, 2013 by london-snow

[london-snow]

Sorry Vince what's your point you're trying to make here? ^^

Edited February 17, 2013 by london-snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

In all fairness cc nothing is nailed on past 72+ at this moment in time with the high yet to decide where it wants to park itself.

Hopefully the pattern will retrogress as you feel & put most of the uk under a cold & snowy spell to round off winter.

Anyway on to the 00z & let's hope the high starts top trend back that bit north.

The general pattern, I feel, is fairly well set to 168 with only minor discrepancies RE positioning of high and zone of instability moving west across the continent. Obviously small shifts will make huge differences to what members will experience on the ground so to speak. However the general pattern is set as I say. After this, who knows?

Just to clarify, I'm certainly not saying retrogression favourable to the UK will occur, but there's certainly a possibilty I feel.

Edited February 17, 2013 by CreweCold

[Panayiotis]

Agreed. Nothing nailed on post 168 hours. I'm seeing maybe the first signs of more favourable retrogression of heights in the 7-10 day range today and feel the high slipping SE is a very low probability for reasons mentioned earlier.

The easterly, although potentially decent for those in the SE has never been my main focus. The main concern of mine is what happens after this as I don't want to see the Atlantic gain the upper hand. For this we don't want the high crumbling SE or the high to retogress to the west side of Greenland.

CFS still rock solid with its blocking scenario for March and has been for a matter of weeks

Personally I wouldn't be banking on a warm start to the first month of spring. Some will disagree but recent GFS runs have shown that even after a breakdown of the current projected spell, heights are keen to rise once more to the NE. Given the weakening of the Canadian vortex and the repeated attempts at a retrogressing high, I feel a successful attempt is nigh.

Yes what I said in my previous post with the movement of the PV from Greenland/Arctic to NW Europe this gives higher than normal chance for the heights retrogressing/moving into the Greenland area. something to keep us more busy over the coming weeks! Edited February 17, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes what I said in my previous post with the movement of the PV from Greenland/Arctic to NW Europe this gives higher than normal chance for the heights retrogressing/moving into the Greenland area, the CFS run is keen to bring reload after reload of Atlantic and Greenland highs with northerlies and northeasterlies, something to keep us more busy over the coming weeks!

http://www.meteociel...cfse_cartes.php

Certainly not a warm pattern

[london-snow]

The general pattern, I feel, is fairly well set to 168 with only minor discrepancies RE positioning of high and zone of instability moving west across the continent. Obviously small shifts will make huge differences to what members will experience on the ground so to speak. However the general pattern is set as I say. After this, who knows?

Agreed cc we will see what happens but in the shorter term there is plenty to be positive about until that high is nailed.

Goodnight & here's to a great set of sunday runs.

[Vince Coombes]

Sorry Vince what's your point you're trying to make here? ^^

Will reply later some sort of power outage happened when i posted a reply. .on dial up speed and hacked right off.

[Panayiotis]

So the 00z is trickling out and some upgrades compared to the 18z are evident. The 00z has a wider cold pool of -10C uppers with it covering more of the UK at 108hrs.

[london-snow]

Morning early risers hope you're ready for another big day of model watching.

Decent 00z up to 120+ especially the further south and east you are.

& add to that the cold air is still hanging on in the south east at 192+.

A easterly of note now looks odds on however the question remains ~

Can we receive a direct hit or a glancing blow?

Edited February 17, 2013 by london-snow

[swfc]

Easterly still on track.Whats frustrating synoptics wise is the pv is so far east yet no sign of any full on retrogression towrds greenland,i have no idea why tho?????

[summer blizzard]

Looks dry for me.

[Gustywind]

And for about 90% of the country unfortunately, cold and dry sums it up. The far south and south east still look set for a snowier looking week. The place to be though is France, absolute snowfest there. If only the pattern could've setup further north so the uk could get a direct hit.

Again in FI the lack of Greenland high is apparent.

[That ECM]

And for about 90% of the country unfortunately, cold and dry sums it up. The far south and south east still look set for a snowier looking week. The place to be though is France, absolute snowfest there. If only the pattern could've setup further north so the uk could get a direct hit.

Again in FI the lack of Greenland high is apparent.

ECM is slightly further north at t120. I think we should be happy that we are looking at output that is showing an easterly flow. Max of 2 degrees from Thursday. Snow can and I am sure will appear from seemingly nowhere. Remember 2010.

[Gustywind]

ECM looks pretty much the same to me, snowfest for northern France, dry but cold for majority of uk away from far south and south east, which are just about in the snowier zone. Wonderful Synoptics, just a shame the whole thing isn't further north so more of the uk could enjoy it.

[KTtom]

And for about 90% of the country unfortunately, cold and dry sums it up. The far south and south east still look set for a snowier looking week. The place to be though is France, absolute snowfest there. If only the pattern could've setup further north so the uk could get a direct hit.

Again in FI the lack of Greenland high is apparent.

I think the 120 Fax speaks volumes.....Dry, even in the SE, no steamers, no heavy snow for the SE....a visit to see NS is on the cards as thats where any snow is heading!

Edited February 17, 2013 by KTtom