winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[minus 9]

Dave have you been on the pop.

[Dave Kightley]

Dave have you been on the pop.

A model thread???

[winterof79]

ECM delivers a glancing blow to the s/e -10 -11 850s not as widespread as GFS http://www.meteociel...1-120.GIF?18-12

To be honest Januarys spell will probably eclipse this one.Looks distinctly average, high pressure dominated, weather which is propped up with low heights for a time.As ever a Greenie high appears in la la land on GFS.

ECM at 240z http://www.meteociel...1-240.GIF?18-12 Bitter cold to the N/E ready to pounce if the high sinks??

http://modeles.meteo...snh-5-240.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

All speculation.

Edited February 18, 2013 by winterof79

[TEITS]

Very pleased with the output with good agreement at +120 with regards to the extent of the cold E,ly flow.

Surprisingly little has changed in my outlook since I posted this a few days ago. So Thurs/Fri is likely to see light snow flurries in mainly E Anglia/SE but during Friday including Saturday these will become heavier across these parts and also lighter snow showers will develop further N and spread further inland. This is as a result of the flow becoming ENE,ly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

These more widespread and heavier showers will continue into Sunday but what you may find is the temps may rise by about 1-2C because of the flow becoming more of a NE,ly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

Let me put it this way if the current output remains unchanged I would be staggered if locations such as Kent, Essex only see light flurries and remain mostly dry!!

[mountain shadow]

A good summary Winterof79.

Mainly cold and dry for the next ten days, a liitle snow for the far South East.

Then signs of the UK block retrogressing to Western Greenland with a West based -NAO which would not deliver snow.

[Frosty.]

There should be some snow showers later this week and over the weekend across southern england, south wales, south midlands and across to east anglia as pressure will be lower to the south and high to the north with a tighter squeeze of isobars meaning fresh Easterly winds and also the coldest uppers in the uk, further north it will be dry but sunshine totals look variable as there will be a lot of cloud trapped within the anticyclone but there is good agreement between the gfs and ecm 00z for a higher snow showers risk across more southern parts later this week. Beyond that, the high takes over and really doesn't want to go anywhere so the outlook is cold and anticyclonic, probably sunnier with time and with widespread frosts, no sign of any mild atlantic type weather in the next few weeks.

[lord stratus]

Lord stratos - you are fully aware your post is designed to elicit a response.

We are discussing the 12z runs, not the 00z.

You have confused me. I was commenting on the 12z, in fact I haven't seen the 00z.

Looking at the 12z I posted where I expected the best chance of snow. As you know the outputs will change during this week which will favour some but not all areas. I can only imagine that you live north of my suggested snow extent!

This mornings output keeps the snow risk in the far south but much colder for all of the UK.

[lord stratus]

There should be some snow showers later this week and over the weekend across southern england, south wales, south midlands and across to east anglia as pressure will be lower to the south and high to the north with a tighter squeeze of isobars meaning fresh Easterly winds and also the coldest uppers in the uk, further north it will be dry but sunshine totals look variable as there will be a lot of cloud trapped within the anticyclone but there is good agreement between the gfs and ecm 00z for a higher snow showers risk across more southern parts later this week. Beyond that, the high takes over and really doesn't want to go anywhere so the outlook is cold and anticyclonic, probably sunnier with time and with widespread frosts, no sign of any mild atlantic type weather in the next few weeks.

Best not to look beyond the weekend as I expect there will be a few changes, we still need to see if that high will extend northwest. This week is looking progressively colder after Tuesday with snow chances creeping just north of the m4 corridor. The question is will the snow showers stay south of the m4 corridor or will there be a shift further north to bring other areas in to play?

[R.P. McMurphy]

This does not look good if it's snow your after. It's going to be cold, but dry. You might find the odd snow shower in the far south east but that's about it before temps begin to recover, roll on spring!

[Gibby]

Good morning folks. Here is the report from the 00z outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Monday February 18th 2013.

All models are very agreed on the events over the next 4 or 5 days with only minor differences between the models thereafter. The week will start on a quiet and bright note with night time mist, fog and touches of frost leading into dry and bright days with sunny spells and normal temperatures. The moderate SE breeze in the SW will die down later today as a ridge builds down over the UK from the North tonight and tomorrow. By midweek a very weak front moves West over the UK with a band of cloud in association with it and patchy very light rain and drizzle here and there. It will become colder through midweek as winds settle Easterly and increase, especially in the South. Under largely cloudy skies it will feel very cold in the breeze with perhaps a few very light snow grains or snow showers in the South and SE. The best of the bright weather will be in the far NW of the UK closest to the High pressure which will drift West from Scandinavia by the weekend.

GFS then shows High pressure close to Northern Scotland over the weekend and start to next week with little overall change to the surface pattern of weather. Cold and often grey NE winds will continue to blow across England and Wales with limited brightness while the North and Northwest see the best of some sunny spells but widespread night time frosts. Through FI the trend is for the High to accelerate away SE bringing a change from NE winds to SW breezes with rain bearing fronts moving into the UK bringing rain and showers together with strong winds and near to normal temperatures to end the run but it could be cold enough in the North for some snow over the hills.

The GFS Ensembles show the continued support for a steady warm up after 3-4 days of cold uppers. The temperatures at the surface would probably be slower to recover if the airflow becomes stratus cloud based before a return to Atlantic based synoptics bring about the usual variability in temperature late in the run when precipitation spikes begin to become more accentuated.

The Jet Stream shows a disorganized pattern around the UK for the next few days before the flow splits between a Northern arm flowing East over Northern latitudes and a stronger arm blowing East over Southern Europe.

UKMO shows High pressure over Scotland at the weekend with a ridge to the Azores and Southern Scandinavia. A NE flow is maintained over Southern Britain with further cloudy and cold conditions while Northern areas see a better chance of some sunshine by day but widespread night frosts. The High begins to edge slowly South later in the weekend restricting the NE flow to Southernmost England and East Anglia by the start of the new week. It would be largely dry UK wide throughout.

ECM today is largely similar with High pressure over Scotland gradually realigning itself over the weekend and start to the new week to become UK centred at the end of the run. It would be largely dry throughout with the cloudy raw conditions in the South at the weekend gradually being replaced by clearer skies with cold and frosty nights likely with some bright sunny days when temperatures would rise to levels close to or just below the seasonal normal with time.

In Summary today it looks like the weather will stay largely dry for the next few weeks. Cloud amounts will be large in the South and East as a cold and raw NE flow develops later this week but apart from witnessing the odd snow grain it it likely to stay dry. Further North there is a better chance of seeing some sunshine, especially in the NW though this would mean more overnight frost than elsewhere. Towards week 2 the trend is for High pressure to sink South over the UK cutting off the NE feed with increasingly bright and dry weather for all with frosty nights under very light winds. For Farmers and Growers this must be a spell of weather they though they would never see again with the drying process continuing. However, with temperatures quite low small gardeners should be very wary of planting tender plants outside or in greenhouses without heat as the risk of frost over the next two weeks look very high.

[Frosty.]

Best not to look beyond the weekend as I expect there will be a few changes, we still need to see if that high will extend northwest. This week is looking progressively colder after Tuesday with snow chances creeping just north of the m4 corridor. The question is will the snow showers stay south of the m4 corridor or will there be a shift further north to bring other areas in to play?

Yes it's an upgrade since yesterday's 00z runs with the snow showers risk extending further north, further north will be more anticyclonic but with a lot of cloud, there is also a risk of wintry flurries but mainly dry, the coldest 850's across southeast england, even -10 T850 hPA clipping the southeast by the end of the week, definately the most wintry part of the uk beyond midweek, benign further north.

[mushymanrob]

looking like the coldest uppers will glance the southeastern part of the uk peaking on saturday. with the high positioned further south now theres not much chance of any precipitation (as things stand). the milder uppers return across the coutry early next week as the high is centred west of north. ..... now what im thinking is, will this become a dirty high? theres a reasonable chance that cold air in its circulation will track around the high, returning after a path over the sea, collecting moisture. highs at this time of year placed in similar positions do tend to bring in alot of low stratus off the north sea on a slack north/northeasterly as in spring 74.

if this happens the eastern half (at least) of the country could end up cold, dull, dry, with the west being favoured for any sunshine.

so i wouldnt assume that the high will be a clear, sunny by day, frosty by night (as in march 96).

until then theres an easterly of sorts to contend with, whos effects will be felt greatest in the southeast.

at least theres scope for a drying up, much needed.

[Guest bjaykent]

However, with temperatures quite low small gardeners should be very wary of planting tender plants outside or in greenhouses without heat as the risk of frost over the next two weeks look very high.

Thanks Gibby and large gardeners should be wary too

[london-snow]

Its a great outlook once again this morning especially for the south east.

At this point in time i would add that their is a good chance that for those living in the south east you will experience a decent spell of snow contrary to others views i feel that the weather as we head into the back end of the week can produce ~

~ Snow showers turning heavier

~ possible disturbances

~ streamer (Sat & Sun e>ne flow)

For locations such as midlands north i would say that you need to see a decent shift north with the placement of the high to stand a chance of joining in with the potential fun & games. I hope the high trends a bit north to allow others to possibly benefit.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So after the hype last week, by myself included , yet again we are are facing with the realisation that it was nothing more than hype , and getting sucked into the models , along with hope casting , Ian f was right all along , as he , and the met normally are , when ones in hear were having a go regarding forecasts saying it will be mainly dry , we all need to add a touch of reality into our expectations in future , because I have done this hype too many times now I'm sick of myself getting to involved , and getting led up the garden path , only to be let down leading upto the event .

I refuse to do this anymore , it's not worth the stress I put myself through , and rather than go through all this next year , I think il begin to get excited when I see the met o mention a freeze , the met o have done very well in general this year , and called things right several days before the models have watered things down with realism again .

If it wasn't for the jan spell , this year would have had little snow , yes we had a snow to rain event last wkend but in general that's not good enough . This year has been snowy because of the jan spell , but one thing I have definitely learnt is don't put all my eggs in the strat conditions , because it by no means guarantees cold , it just gives us a better chance. But this spell this week as far as I'm concerened has nothing to do with the strat warming back on the 5th jan . I also think that there is stronger drivers than the strat, a combination of several other factors can over ride the strat profile . As we all know a small vortex segment remaining in situ close to Greenland will feed continuous energy into the Atlantic , which in turn stops the NAO going negative.

Iv also saw the MJO remain stubborn in its fases which can prevent what looks like a favourable situation.

Hope you all get one last snow event , but I think in honesty now il look forward to spring and hope for a nice summer , then be back in the autumn, I intend to do some research myself this year to help my own understanding in meteorology for next winter .Along with yet another house move to take me closer to work , some 800ft ASL , obviously with alterior motives !

Take care all of you , have a wonderful year.

[fergieweather]

Great runs so far for cold weather but terrible for snow.. Throughout the GFS run is dry and just unlucky.

So what we have is possible snow flurries end of the week in the south then high pressure blows up and sinks over us keeping us very cold and frosty then a chunk of the high breaks off on the western side of our balloon and then moves over west Greenland(West-NAO) and the rest sinks away towards Europe and we are back in S.Wly weather again suspect.

Indeed. Ensemble flow bias diagnostics have been very consistent over the last 48-72hrs of output, with strong signal for this eventual change which pulls in milder maritime air while also allowing Atlantic weather systems to track closer to the NW. But still some days away....

[Duane S.]

So after the hype last week, by myself included , yet again we are are facing with the realisation that it was nothing more than hype , and getting sucked into the models , along with hope casting , Ian f was right all along , as he , and the met normally are , when ones in hear were having a go regarding forecasts saying it will be mainly dry , we all need to add a touch of reality into our expectations in future , because I have done this hype too many times now I'm sick of myself getting to involved , and getting led up the garden path , only to be let down leading upto the event .

I refuse to do this anymore , it's not worth the stress I put myself through , and rather than go through all this next year , I think il begin to get excited when I see the met o mention a freeze , the met o have done very well in general this year , and called things right several days before the models have watered things down with realism again .

If it wasn't for the jan spell , this year would have had little snow , yes we had a snow to rain event last wkend but in general that's not good enough . This year has been snowy because of the jan spell , but one thing I have definitely learnt is don't put all my eggs in the strat conditions , because it by no means guarantees cold , it just gives us a better chance. But this spell this week as far as I'm concerened has nothing to do with the strat warming back on the 5th jan . I also think that there is stronger drivers than the strat, a combination of several other factors can over ride the strat profile . As we all know a small vortex segment remaining in situ close to Greenland will feed continuous energy into the Atlantic , which in turn stops the NAO going negative.

Iv also saw the MJO remain stubborn in its fases which can prevent what looks like a favourable situation.

Hope you all get one last snow event , but I think in honesty now il look forward to spring and hope for a nice summer , then be back in the autumn, I intend to do some research myself this year to help my own understanding in meteorology for next winter .Along with yet another house move to take me closer to work , some 800ft ASL , obviously with alterior motives !

Take care all of you , have a wonderful year.

For goodnes sake. Every year I have to read these drama queen posts of people beating themselves up as winter draws to an end when potential hasn't been realised (when is true potential ever realised?). This year's winter has been fine, could have been better, not a classic for sure but January decent enough for many on here. And as for the upcoming cold spell, it hasn't even't started yet!?!

We're all (well, most are) guilty of geting too optimistic bordering on blinkered when potential rears its head but as long as we're not hyping up a no-hope situation when the vortex is well formed and raging above us (aka first half of last winter) then how boring and tedious would it be if we were all like certain pragmatic dull members on here drone drone negative negative and are constantly looking for / expecting the worse. I certainly wouldn't bother visiting / posting!

Charts this morning look very cold and yes dry for most (no real change there) but there is still plenty of potential for some fun and games over the next 2+ weeks as the potential remains. Safe to say 1947 and 1963 can rest easy as the main players in the classic winters list but there no reason why 12/13 couldn't be remembered for a very cold and snowy back end to the winter.

[fergieweather]

So to pass the tIme: here's a little exercise for those of you who expressed an interest in forecast profiles and how to use them wIthIn the forum here.... these two tephigram ascents are both for Friday AM. The BLACK one is E side of the Pennines... the RED one for SE England. I'll leave you to consider just what weather type can be expected from both at these locations.... have fun!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A lot of doom and gloom.....again....and we haven't even got into the spell yet. Indeed this spell which was never to come? This spell which was forecast 3 months ago by RJS. I know where my money is, and talk of early return to mild...we'll see as even the MetO do forecasts change back and forth according to model output and as we have seen there's been a lot of ups and downs, to-ing and fro-ing. Model wise January was incredible, BUT the cold and snow did come between 16-22 as anticipated, models getting there in the end and forecasts plumping with it.

Before we doom and gloom, lets look at getting this cold in and worry about developing detail when its under way.

UKMO still very good

GFS good

ECM - could be better.

All hint at at cold prolonging and all to play for...although further N and W you go the drier and sunnier it is likely to be...even the legendary feb 86 was a non snow event for many throughout the month.

BFTP

Edited February 18, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[UV-RAY]

So after the hype last week, by myself included , yet again we are are facing with the realisation that it was nothing more than hype , and getting sucked into the models , along with hope casting , Ian f was right all along , as he , and the met normally are , when ones in hear were having a go regarding forecasts saying it will be mainly dry , we all need to add a touch of reality into our expectations in future , because I have done this hype too many times now I'm sick of myself getting to involved , and getting led up the garden path , only to be let down leading upto the event .

I refuse to do this anymore , it's not worth the stress I put myself through , and rather than go through all this next year , I think il begin to get excited when I see the met o mention a freeze , the met o have done very well in general this year , and called things right several days before the models have watered things down with realism again .

If it wasn't for the jan spell , this year would have had little snow , yes we had a snow to rain event last wkend but in general that's not good enough . This year has been snowy because of the jan spell , but one thing I have definitely learnt is don't put all my eggs in the strat conditions , because it by no means guarantees cold , it just gives us a better chance. But this spell this week as far as I'm concerened has nothing to do with the strat warming back on the 5th jan . I also think that there is stronger drivers than the strat, a combination of several other factors can over ride the strat profile . As we all know a small vortex segment remaining in situ close to Greenland will feed continuous energy into the Atlantic , which in turn stops the NAO going negative.

Iv also saw the MJO remain stubborn in its fases which can prevent what looks like a favourable situation.

Hope you all get one last snow event , but I think in honesty now il look forward to spring and hope for a nice summer , then be back in the autumn, I intend to do some research myself this year to help my own understanding in meteorology for next winter .Along with yet another house move to take me closer to work , some 800ft ASL , obviously with alterior motives !

Take care all of you , have a wonderful year.

I use to be exactly the same SSIB but now until those magic words cold and snow are mentioned by the MetO, then there is little point in believing some of the more excited forecasts we get on here. Back to the models and the dry theme continues for the next 7 days at least, with the first signs of breakdown coming in from the Atlantic thereafter. Fantastic weather at the moment, this is the third day of wall to wall sunshine following an overnight frost, I've now recorded more frost than the last cold spell, Lol.

[Average Joe]

So after the hype last week, by myself included , yet again we are are facing with the realisation that it was nothing more than hype , and getting sucked into the models , along with hope casting , Ian f was right all along , as he , and the met normally are , when ones in hear were having a go regarding forecasts saying it will be mainly dry , we all need to add a touch of reality into our expectations in future , because I have done this hype too many times now I'm sick of myself getting to involved , and getting led up the garden path , only to be let down leading upto the event .

I refuse to do this anymore , it's not worth the stress I put myself through , and rather than go through all this next year , I think il begin to get excited when I see the met o mention a freeze , the met o have done very well in general this year , and called things right several days before the models have watered things down with realism again .

If it wasn't for the jan spell , this year would have had little snow , yes we had a snow to rain event last wkend but in general that's not good enough . This year has been snowy because of the jan spell , but one thing I have definitely learnt is don't put all my eggs in the strat conditions , because it by no means guarantees cold , it just gives us a better chance. But this spell this week as far as I'm concerened has nothing to do with the strat warming back on the 5th jan . I also think that there is stronger drivers than the strat, a combination of several other factors can over ride the strat profile . As we all know a small vortex segment remaining in situ close to Greenland will feed continuous energy into the Atlantic , which in turn stops the NAO going negative.

Iv also saw the MJO remain stubborn in its fases which can prevent what looks like a favourable situation.

Hope you all get one last snow event , but I think in honesty now il look forward to spring and hope for a nice summer , then be back in the autumn, I intend to do some research myself this year to help my own understanding in meteorology for next winter .Along with yet another house move to take me closer to work , some 800ft ASL , obviously with alterior motives !

Take care all of you , have a wonderful year.

Have to say I thought this was a terrific post, even for someone like myself who's at the opposite end of the snow loving spectrum!

Having walked through Richmond Park in the late winter sunshine yesterday, I always find it bizarre that grey skies and snow would be preferred to bright sunshine and clear skies, however that said the sentiments in this post are very kind I thought!

[kev238]

Couldn't agree more with the previous post. It's the weather for goodness sake, if it causes this much angst as to whether it is going to snow or not, then that's worrying!!!

Generally the met office have been excellent this winter, with very challenging Synoptics and marginal snow events; the clear message is that unless they start mentioning widespread snow, don't believe it, regardless of what posters on here say.

[UV-RAY]

So to pass the tIme: here's a little exercise for those of you who expressed an interest in forecast profiles and how to use them wIthIn the forum here.... these two tephigram ascents are both for Friday AM. The BLACK one is E side of the Pennines... the RED one for SE England. I'll leave you to consider just what weather type can be expected from both at these locations.... have fun!

It looks like my ordnance survey maps Ian!

[TEITS]

So after the hype last week, by myself included , yet again we are are facing with the realisation that it was nothing more than hype , and getting sucked into the models , along with hope casting , Ian f was right all along , as he , and the met normally are , when ones in hear were having a go regarding forecasts saying it will be mainly dry , we all need to add a touch of reality into our expectations in future ,

What you mean by the forecast of a front approaching the SW this weekend and moving N?

I disagreed many days ago and there is no sign of this occurring in the model output and to be honest it never did look likely.

Little early to be presuming the Met O are correct for this week/weekend. Lets wait and see if Kent only see a few flurries. If the output remains the same then that will be an incorrect forecast for Kent!

Edited February 18, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Summer Sun]

I noticed this last night with ECM and its the same this morning milder air filtering down from the north, that must be rare?

The ensemble run gives its support for milder air to build from t192 as well