winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[chionomaniac]

Its good to see even this small correction, every little helps! Hopefully this will end up down the line bringing the instability even 100 miles further north could make a big difference to the snow potential.

At T90hrs the northern Med low is a little deeper and certainly a noticeable northwards correction!

Yes any showers that can form will be driven in land that little further - force 3 rather than force 1 ESE airflow for Sat lunchtime across the southern half of the UK

[Weather-history]

I notice on the 12z, there is a squeeze in the isobars over Denmark at 120hrs.

There also seems to be more precipitation around at the weekend

Edited February 19, 2013 by Weather-history

[Tom Jarvis]

looks like the low will go under at 132 hours

[randomwalk]

Look at the precipitation on the gfs approaching from the east; is this the upper trough that the meto/ecm has recently picked up.

[Tim Bland]

Nice little feature in the SE on sub night !!?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=2

[AWD]

I notice on the 12z, there is a squeeze in the isobars over Germany and Denmark at 120hrs.

There also seems to be more precipitation around at the weekend

Yup.

Not to be taken literally of course but you can see below more potential, widespread light shower activity;

[nick sussex]

It will be interesting now to see what happens to any retrogression of the high, can we continue with the positive trend?

[Harsh Climate]

More WAA towards greenland, may allow for heights to build in that area!

If we could get it up the western side of greenland in future runs it would be BINGO.

Edited February 19, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[frosty ground]

Nice little feature in the SE on sub night !!?

http://www.meteociel...&ech=132&mode=2

Mostly rain as the warmer uppers and Dew points come in!

[weather eater]

absolutely no statistical evidence for that, just the same as there is no statistical evidence, of any practical forecast use, to link any season with any following it.

Maybe no statistical evidence John but plenty of on the ground evidence, the last six have all gone that way, personally warm spring, hot summer will do me. However, I take your point; there is no proven correlation between warm springs and wet summers that’s just the way it’s worked out for us for what seems like a terminally long time.

Meanwhile on the model front, small changes again throwing up potential for us, further ahead, based on the operational’s which are my preferred way of looking for trends, a west based NAO still looks to be the clear favourite, leaving the UK in a SWly regime, I never thought we would see a Greenland Block that was going to be of any use to us and I still hold to that view, sad to say.

[randomwalk]

cold pool being throttled by warm air by monday, the pace of this is astounding

[Harsh Climate]

Mostly rain as the warmer uppers and Dew points come in!

I just don't see anything substantial for anywhere towards the end of the week.

Either the precipitation misses us/doesn't develop, or It does but is associated with milder uppers/dew points.

I still stand by any appreciable snow being restricted to say above 200m in the south east..(That's providing there's precipitation.)

Edited February 19, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[randomwalk]

follow the flow the atlantic gets in via gilbraltar, Italy, Germany, low countries and in the back door. What a devious play.

[PolarWarsaw]

Yep dwindling into nothing but 'a couple of chilly nights' this is. Sadly, it looks like any chance of settling snow from this period is non existant for 99% of us.

[frosty ground]

I just don't see anything substantial for anywhere towards the end of the week.

Either the precipitation misses us/doesn't develop, or It does but is associated with milder uppers/dew points.

I still stand by any appreciable snow being restricted to say above 200m in the south east..(That's providing there's precipitation.)

It's just a shame pressure is high over eastern Canada otherwise we would have a more interesting northerly to look forward to!

[fergieweather]

Probably worth adding that Met Office keep that dynamic ppn swinging westward into Sunday out across the Continent anyway, so GFS has been somewhat alone on that story since yesterday. But we'll see.

[phil nw.]

It will be interesting now to see what happens to any retrogression of the high, can we continue with the positive trend?

Yes Nick your famous Genoa low seems to have extended it`s influence a little further north on the 12Z runs

GFS chart showing a developing trough in the flow out to the east?

A little far off but something like this has sprung before from Low pressure down there as we know-so a possibility at this stage for sure.

[nick sussex]

Regarding those warmer dew points its a risk worth taking, this happens because of the pivot of the Euro troughing which could throw some precip nw out of Germany.

At this timeframe theres still uncertainty with that but you need some form of pivot given the set up to increase the instability into the UK.

Better to have that and a chance of some snow than be bone dry, we'll see nearer the time what happens with those dew points and uppers.

[Tim Bland]

A familiar stand off between ECM and GFS in the mid term (240hrs) GFS still dropping the high into Europe with the Atlantic making inroads from the north west. I'd be inclined to side with the ECM after recent performance (high staying over uk) but the GFS is more inline with the meto further outlook

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

This afternoons GFS and UKMO all point to a stagnant spell of weather next week. Although it may be nice and sunny and pleasant in a select few places for anyone that likes interesting weather then next week will be as boring as it gets.

[throwoff]

Kent is STILL on for something this weekend!

[phil nw.]

As we go further into next week the trend continues on the GFS to ease the High south over the UK.Nothing to blow our cold upper pool away under a slack flow,it just gradually mixes out insitu so remaining quite chilly at the surface as will much of W.Europe still with frosts if skies are clear enough.

Notice some real bitter cold coming south further east into Scandinavia and W.Russia in the later HR-nothing to suggest the pattern will bring any of that this way though.

[Neilsouth]

Kent is STILL on for something this weekend!

Certainly looks that way, hints from the met office of a little bit more than a dusting, a little bit more precipitation showing up on the models aswell. The most promising area is certainly kent, however this high being further north would benefit far more!

[Summer Sun]

Well after some possible snow for a few at the weekend next week looks like seeing high pressure continuing to dominate as we leave winter and enter Spring

This pretty much sums up next weeks weather

It will remain chilly at the surface but if we can get some sunshine it will no doubt feel fairly pleasant

Just for fun in FI

Note the time as well lol

Edited February 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[shaky]

Nae 12z once again brings -11 to -12 uppers further north up to about humberside!