winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[shaky]

yes a shaky post indeed

Lol!!

[chris55]

There is a definite kink on the ECM 12z for Sat, will have to await the ppn charts later to see how active, or not, it may be.

[phil nw.]

As expected the models are all settling on the placement of the surface features now wrt easterly setup.

No real surprises on the ECM to T120hrs.The period Fri-Sun appear to be when anything more than light snow showers may develop within the flow from the east.After that thicknesses start to rise as the Continental low starts to fill and lose any influence over the UK.

As Crewe said it looks quite cold around the weekend with uppers -6 to -8C but the question still to be answered is how much precipitation will be around.

[chris55]

Hard to judge, but looks as though a little more energy could be heading south east on the EC 144? We'll just have to see where it goes.

[PB22]

The cold uppers have gone by T+144 on the 12z ECM, but I'd wager that north-east wind will be pretty sharp still in the south:

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hard to judge, but looks as though a little more energy could be heading south east on the EC 144? We'll just have to see where it goes.

It had been noted! Not saying anything yet

[SE Blizzards]

I wonder if the ECM will wander off in this direction in its later stages. Soon to find out....

Certainly something to keep an eye out for.

If it doesn't make it on this run then maybe over the next day or 2.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It had been noted! Not saying anything yet

Think Monday looking like a wet day for midlands, hope it shifts south, Manchester northwards dry maybe sunny as it stands on this 12Z

[bluearmy]

Think Monday looking like a wet day for midlands, hope it shifts south, Manchester northwards dry maybe sunny as it stands on this 12Z

which monday are you looking at ??

[chris55]

Where is the Low headed?? (the one to the far south west, will probably trend north east.

Edited February 19, 2013 by chris55

[shaky]

Think Monday looking like a wet day for midlands, hope it shifts south, Manchester northwards dry maybe sunny as it stands on this 12Z

A quick one!!can we ever get snow from the east with surface cold embedded already for 2 or 3 days and 850s of 0

[nick sussex]

The cold uppers have gone by T+144 on the 12z ECM, but I'd wager that north-east wind will be pretty sharp still in the south:

I think once any snow potential recedes its better to have a more ese flow for those hoping to hang onto any snow that might have fallen, lower dew points and the continent even with that uptick in the uppers would still be cold.

Still a lot of uncertainty with any snow potential though but at least there is some potential, perhaps one or two surprises might pop up, the Euro troughing is close enough to not rule out a decent covering in some favoured areas.

[bluearmy]

A quick one!!can we ever get snow from the east with surface cold embedded already for 2 or 3 days and 850s of 0

of course. but i suggest you would need a continental feed (or at least a strong flow with a short sea track) ahead of the precip or an onshore flow may well bring dp's too high given the precarious level of the uppers.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

A quick one!!can we ever get snow from the east with surface cold embedded already for 2 or 3 days and 850s of 0

Dont think so under 200m, as flow modified by north sea, had snow off -0.2C uppers on 25th Jan, but that setup completely different

[chris55]

Lower heights "underneath" the high, Low to the west stalled with some better vertical WAA. (than the 00z)

[Tim Bland]

Lower heights "underneath" the high, Low to the west stalled with some better vertical WAA. (than the 00z)

Not sure what straw people are clutching here. It's not going to retrogress with that low pressure over Greenland. It may as well sink away so we can reset and hope for something better

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteo...-1-1-216.png?12

This is where we want the high to die in situ- as as the murr sausage.

Expecting between 1 & 5cm here this week- hopefully one last sledge run Sunday.

S

I would love the control to varify

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-384.png?12

T400 would be EPIC snow.

Edited February 19, 2013 by Steve Murr

[chris55]

Less energy over the top than the 00z. Nothing that interesting at present, but trends are interestin.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Not sure what straw people are clutching here. It's not going to retrogress with that low pressure over Greenland. It may as well sink away so we can reset and hope for something better

I think were a little late in the season to be hoping for a reset... A lot of run's show that energy over Greenland further East with the P/V over Siberia.. Time will tell but the Atlantic still looks pretty dead to me .

[chris55]

Not sure what straw people are clutching here. It's not going to retrogress with that low pressure over Greenland. It may as well sink away so we can reset and hope for something better

No straws Tim, just having a little fun looking out for the impossible.

[Tim Bland]

No straws Tim, just having a little fun looking out for the impossible.

Thats fair enough, What Is the dream scenario here? Are you thinking there is a remote possibility of getting that high into Greenland ?

[pip22]

Is the models have any signs of proper warmer weather on its way?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?19-0

not the best chart

but upstream over the US- the jet is VERY amplified & I think the 264 chart would reveal some more oft he fat ladies underwear....

Lets get the snow period out of the way & see where it goes from there-

ECM thins out the cold slowley over england- so a gentle thaw of the 2cms...

S

Edited February 19, 2013 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

I think retrogression of the high to allow a northerly is looking very long odds. Theres just no clear signal for this and those low heights in Greenland just won't relent.

Although you've still got some energy heading se the highs got nowhere to go and eventually it has to start sinking, still some time to play with but I think we have to be realistic and say its a longshot.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

http://modeles.meteo...-1-1-216.png?12

This is where we want the high to die in situ- as as the murr sausage.

Expecting between 1 & 5cm here this week- hopefully one last sledge run Sunday.

S

I would love the control to varify

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-384.png?12

T400 would be EPIC snow.

Lets be honest though Steve , are you really resorting to chasing snow t400 hrs away ? Yes you will see a bit of light snow this week into the weekend , but not amounting to anything significant , if someone had offered me this cold spell in advance as a choice , I think I would of left it in the continent , dull , very cold , mainly dry days don't cut it for me , and although it can snow well into march , we're doing the thing we have done all winter , which is chase potential set ups and watch them disapear a few days later.

Good 10 days of snowy weather in jan . So all in all not a bad winter with some additional wet snow either side of the spell in jan .

But I for one certainly haven't got the energy to go chasing something in la la land. This easterly is nothing to write to home about, the main action as always is in Europe .

Don't go biting my head off guys like the other day , this isn't a doom and gloom post guys, I'm more than satisfied with the snow Iv had , just a bit tired of chasing tales and looking at things 3 wks away which in all honesty won't happen.

In the mean time a cold 5 days or so to come , with a biting wind , but not much other than a cm or 2 of snow for anybody . If people get excited about that , then fair enough , but I don't.

Regards

Shaun

Edited February 19, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast