winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[Paul]

What sort of night time temperatures could be achieved with this set up, assuming no snow cover?

You can view the night time temps being progged over on the chart viewer - just select minimum temperatures and choose the time you want to view it for

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[SomeLikeItHot]

A beauty. I'd expect with such pressure and a strengthening sun inland you'd probably see the cloud burn back.

But why are you posting week old model output for this friday? - Edit: PLease ignore no idea what happened but was seeing a completely different chart first time I saw this.

Edited February 19, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Paul]

But why are you posting week old model output for this friday?

He's not - it's a chart from the ecmwf 00z run (the latest one available).

[SomeLikeItHot]

Ok Sorry this is bizzare I was seeing a completely different chart. Sorry.

Edited February 19, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[bradymk]

What ever the out come is its a good one.

GH cold and snowy!

Settled warm and sunny!

Don't see the Atlantic anywhere.

Be careful with the settled warm and sunny thing. This morning's ECM for many areas was not as sunny and warm as you think. A mainly dry outlook yes but maybe not as sunny as some may think. Edited February 19, 2013 by bradythemole

[Tim Bland]

Be careful with the settled warm and sunny thing. This morning's ECM for many areas was not as sunny and warm as you think. A mainly dry outlook yes but maybe not as sunny as some may think.

Agree, low cloud and fog would be associated with this type of high at this time of year,

Re the medium term there is still massive uncertanty which is clear from the ensebles - a 20C split from 1st March. May as well flip a coin at the moment. Hopefully more of a trend emerging in the next few days. Hopefully either settled and warm or the high goew NW and some kind of Northerly sets up. A northerly in March or even April often brings some realy beefy snow showers as solar input is increased. Anything other than a wet southwesterly will do me though

[johnholmes]

Would like it in June but recent year have taught me that having a warmer spring leads to a crap summer.

A normal spring would be nice so its more likely we will get a Decent summer.

absolutely no statistical evidence for that, just the same as there is no statistical evidence, of any practical forecast use, to link any season with any following it.

[offerman]

Did i miss something??? Radio 2 Steve Write just this second said, last nice day today for a while, cloud and rain spreading in with hill snow??? Is he serious, i thought this nice weather would continue albeit a bit cooler with a very small chance of a flurry poss later weekend but nothing much.

Anyone else just hear this to? If so where the hell are they getting info from , met office as they are radio 2 so bbc and bbc get weather from M.O

Same corp but so many different reports, why?

[Chris W]

absolutely no statistical evidence for that, just the same as there is no statistical evidence, of any practical forecast use, to link any season with any following it.

Is that strictly true? If so what is the statistical evidence to prove the opposite hypothesis?

[london-snow]

Going by this mornings output their is still large differences even at T72 hours mark in regards to the placement of the high that can have a big effect on what the southern and eastern half of the uk receive in the coming days.

Hopefully we can see a good step in the right direction as we head into the 12z output.

[summer blizzard]

Would like it in June but recent year have taught me that having a warmer spring leads to a crap summer.

A normal spring would be nice so its more likely we will get a Decent summer.

The recent summers have been caused by very low GLAMM, if we can get close to an El Nino with our +QBO then we are good to go.

What sort of night time temperatures could be achieved with this set up, assuming no snow cover?

With the milder uppers i suspect fog would be a bigger issue than very low minima but i'd expect say -5C in a Scottish valley, perhaps a few degrees below in the Vale of York.

Be careful with the settled warm and sunny thing. This morning's ECM for many areas was not as sunny and warm as you think. A mainly dry outlook yes but maybe not as sunny as some may think.

That's true but at this range the resolution isn't nearly good enough to take the models at the word for cloud amounts. I'd expect there to be more cloud along the east and south of the Midlands but i'd expect inland a lot of places to see the cloud burn back.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Did i miss something??? Radio 2 Steve Write just this second said, last nice day today for a while, cloud and rain spreading in with hill snow??? Is he serious, i thought this nice weather would continue albeit a bit cooler with a very small chance of a flurry poss later weekend but nothing much.

Anyone else just hear this to? If so where the hell are they getting info from , met office as they are radio 2 so bbc and bbc get weather from M.O

Same corp but so many different reports, why?

Depends when he meant. Early tomorrow the met are forecasting light rain showers over some parts before the really cold air moves in.

Met office UK Forecast for Wed.

Wednesday:

Cloudier and colder than Tuesday, with the best of any brightness generally towards the west. Patchy rain and occasional hill snow dying out during the day.

Edited February 19, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Depends when he meant. Early tomorrow the met are forecasting light rain showers over some parts before the really cold air moves in.

Met office UK Forecast for Wed.

Wednesday:

Cloudier and colder than Tuesday, with the best of any brightness generally towards the west. Patchy rain and occasional hill snow dying out during the day.

There is a weak front moving in from the East tonight, probably what they are referring to.

[johnholmes]

Is that strictly true? If so what is the statistical evidence to prove the opposite hypothesis?

an interesting question, but in 50 years weather watching, professional and amateur, I have yet to see anything that has any forecast use. Sorry not got the evidence you ask for.

Over many years, purely for my own interest in quiet night duties, I would peruse Met O data to try and prove one thing or another. I never did manage it and if you search through Met Soc Quarterly Journals or ask UK Met for any data I am certain you will get a nothing found but I am happy to apologise if anything is found.

[R.P. McMurphy]

absolutely no statistical evidence for that, just the same as there is no statistical evidence, of any practical forecast use, to link any season with any following it.

Maybe there is, maybe there isn't - I have not looked. But for me the past 3 summers have been the exact same pattern. Hot springs, crap summers. It wont matter who I ask the question to, they all say the same thing, it's like the seasons have changed in terms of summer and spring.

[johnholmes]

Did i miss something??? Radio 2 Steve Write just this second said, last nice day today for a while, cloud and rain spreading in with hill snow??? Is he serious, i thought this nice weather would continue albeit a bit cooler with a very small chance of a flurry poss later weekend but nothing much.

Anyone else just hear this to? If so where the hell are they getting info from , met office as they are radio 2 so bbc and bbc get weather from M.O

Same corp but so many different reports, why?

Have you been on another planet and missed all the toing and froing on this thread about will it snow won't it, yes it will, no it wont and how long is the cold spell going to last?

Yes there is a weak front arriving in the east overnight and spreading west with POSSIBLY a little light rain/drizzle and a few flakes for the hills as it does so.

[johnholmes]

Maybe there is, maybe there isn't - I have not looked. But for me the past 3 summers have been the exact same pattern. Hot springs, crap summers. It wont matter who I ask the question to, they all say the same thing, it's like the seasons have changed in terms of summer and spring.

3 poor summers do not make statistical evidence I'm afraid.

I do suspect that the term 3 crap summers is not that accurate country wide either, certainly not for this part of the country. Not great but not as you describe them.

Maybe there is, maybe there isn't - I have not looked. But for me the past 3 summers have been the exact same pattern. Hot springs, crap summers. It wont matter who I ask the question to, they all say the same thing, it's like the seasons have changed in terms of summer and spring.

It might also be an idea to ask our weather guru from Manchester what his figures are for the Manchester area. The system he uses does work very well?

[Tim Bland]

NAE shows the cold front well starting the cold cloudy spell with the hunt for flurries

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[nick sussex]

Every mile counts here so we see a little northwards correction in the GFS at T54hrs, the UKMO at T48hrs is a smidge further north.

[chionomaniac]

Every mile counts here so we see a little northwards correction in the GFS at T54hrs, the UKMO at T48hrs is a smidge further north.

Just about to comment the same Nick. 850 temps a little better already in both the GFS and UKMO regarding northerly extent and earlier timeframe.

[Tom Jarvis]

more energy going underneath as well

[nick sussex]

Just about to comment the same Nick. 850 temps a little better already in both the GFS and UKMO regarding northerly extent and earlier timeframe.

Its good to see even this small correction, every little helps! Hopefully this will end up down the line bringing the instability even 100 miles further north could make a big difference to the snow potential.

At T90hrs the northern Med low is a little deeper and certainly a noticeable northwards correction!

Edited February 19, 2013 by nick sussex

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It's been more than 3 bad summers. Since 2007 we have had long periods of cold winter weather, warm spring weather and wet or occasionally very dry (2011) summer weather and until this pattern changes I think we are now permanently in a new climatic era of weakened jet stream and I fully expect this to continue this spring and summer. Come back in the Autumn and tell me I was wrong.

[CWT2012]

Significant upgrades in 12z both in snow potential and the areas that will see snowfall

[chionomaniac]

Reminder - please discuss how bad summers have been elsewhere - any more on the subject will be subject to a vanishing act.