winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

That high she be a big mama and she aint going nowhere fast.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some seriously cold air to the north of us here. 18z carries same theme as 12z

Am I allowed a BOOM at 276 hours out? Closer and closer each run from GFS

Edited February 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[london-snow]

you no the mo is poor when "chance"of a thames streamer takes over the thread?.Anyway the 18z looks slightly less progressive regarding the push of low pressure from the south increasing the precipitation,imo

Not totally swfc there is also a high chance of showers as per the chart chino posted.

The great thing about having a cold forecast is that you never know what is around the corner & what keeps this forum ticking over. I guess that's why their is a age old saying ' Get the cold in place & worry about snow later ' well were half way their and plenty of time to see things change for the better if you a glass half full person like myself.

Edited February 18, 2013 by london-snow

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Some seriously cold air to the north of us here. 18z carries same theme as 12z

I predict the HP will get to Greenland in April when no one really wants it there by then

Edited February 18, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[TEITS]

Anyone fancy another shot of cold or will we be sick and chasing cold spells by then and hoping for warmth?

Impressive cold for the time of year.

[Tim Bland]

So will there be a Thames streamer or not?!

Much better run from 18z finaly some not so zzzzzz Synoptics. High sinks, pressure rises in Greenland and we get a cold unstable northerly. Much more interesting than chasing flurries in Kent IMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=276&code=0&mode=0

[Timmytour]

That high she be a big mama and she aint going nowhere fast.

She's gone!

Edited February 18, 2013 by Timmytour

[bradymk]

Is it me or is the GFS west based NAO pattern that has been showing on previous runs now slowly moving more and more east with every run.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Anyone fancy another shot of cold or will we be sick and chasing cold spells by then and hoping for warmth?

http://modeles.meteo...fs-1-276.png?18

Impressive cold for the time of year.

Some very low thicknesses with that cold shot. Unstable.

[Cloud 10]

Is that an arctic streamer?

[frosty ground]

Some seriously cold air to the north of us here. 18z carries same theme as 12z

Am I allowed a BOOM at 276 hours out? Closer and closer each run from GFS

The creep eastward of the Canadian high is very much in evidance again

[swfc]

pv totally east at 240 hrs,fi granted

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is it me or is the GFS west based NAO pattern that has been showing on previous runs now slowly moving more and more east with every run.

Yep, I said last night to watch out for this.

Let's hope this 'semi trend' for heights more centrally over Greenland gains some momentum amongst the other models, just like it has done in the GEFS today.

[Timmytour]

Is that an arctic streamer?

Looks odds on we are going to get a polar low in around 15 days time

Edited February 18, 2013 by Timmytour

[SMU]

Some very low thicknesses with that cold shot. Unstable.

Sub 510 Thicknesses from the North are rare as hens teeth- usually only 510 comes from the beast.

a lot of variation in the theme around the High pressure- the arctic blast will only land if our current high gets enough of a gap to ridge over greenland.

lets hope so.

S

[TEITS]

The GFS runs today have highlighted why I really like early March. You can technically have such mild temps to be comfortable going outside without a coat and yet still see ice days with heavy snow.

Tell you what though I would love to see a bitter airmass like below to hit the UK from the E instead of the N.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3722.png

Edited February 18, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest CFS anomaly still paints an interesting picture for March. Really wants that height anomaly doesn't it

[Captain Shortwave]

Yep, I said last night to watch out for this.

Let's hope this 'semi trend' for heights more centrally over Greenland gains some momentum amongst the other models, just like it has done in the GEFS today.

I will say this, our high is going nowhere, that might be the only way of moving it if we can stop energy trickling over the top of the high then it will move north West, I see no Atlantic breakthrough via the traditional flatten the pattern route, there is no energy there to do that.

two options are

1) High sits over us for weeks giving a very dry/settled spell with hopefully increasing amounts of sunshine with temperatures recovering to normal with night time frosts.

2) slow and steady retrogression of heights allowing very potent a cold snap/spell before west based -nao kicks in (it might last 2 days or maybe we can get sustained heights over Greenland which would be excellent)

[Carlrg]

Even though the Navgem (the new kid on the block) shows a cold Easterly affecting half of the UK at T90+

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

Precipitation is none existent not only at T90+ but all through the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=90&code=0&mode=2&carte=0&archive=0

Still showing cool uppers though From T42+.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

Edited February 18, 2013 by Carlrg

[J10]

It's a pity the Easterly for next week doesn't have the same cold pack over Eastern Scandinavia in Fi to tap into, 850 HPA of -20 to -25c.

Definitely worth watching to see if we can tap into that.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sub 510 Thicknesses from the North are rare as hens teeth- usually only 510 comes from the beast.

S

One day Steve, one day.

[Dunstable Snow]

Interesting re-inforcement of the pattern alluded to by Crewe Cold and others ( including RJS) on the 18z. Pattern looks to be further east than recent output and would ensure a frigid end to winter and start of the meteorological spring. Let us hope that the ECM starts to seriouly pick up the batton on this over the next 2/3 days. In the meantime the s/e quarter remains firmly in the game for some snow from Thursday through Monday and Kent/Sussex could end up with some significant localised falls in my view. Plenty to keep us interested....

[london-snow]

Don't like the northerly shot as it will be to dry here in the south east!

Only joking but now you know why i get frustrated with people saying that the possible easterly is going to be lame & roll on spring ect.

Share the love people & i hope those up north after snow gets buried.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Plenty to keep us interested....

Oh absolutely. It may end up being the case that this easterly is just the starter before the main course.

Excellent opportunities present themselves RE convection if we can get a cold, unstable NE'ly flow via Greenland heights. Thundersnow and some quite potent trough features would arise if thicknesses were low enough.

This is exactly what I have been tracking/keeping tabs on post easterly as such a situation would have far far greater potential for all of the country in contrast to this easterly spell.

[Dunstable Snow]

Oh absolutely. It may end up being the case that this easterly is just the starter before the main course.

Excellent opportunities present themselves RE convection if we can get a cold, unstable NE'ly flow via Greenland heights. Thundersnow and some quite potent trough features would arise if thicknesses were low enough.

This is exactly what I have been tracking/keeping tabs on post easterly as such a situation would have far far greater potential for all of the country in contrast to this easterly spell.

Fully agree - to be fair you have highlighted this potential for a few days now. Those of us in the south east have been a little pre-occupied with other matters so to speak...!