Dunstable Snow

I’ve been following and reading all the posts over the last few weeks. It’s been terrific to follow and a lot of the contributions have been of a really high quality. Things don’t appear to have fallen our way and if you go back and read the threads there have been some key moments which have highlighted the fact that we could well end up and indeed were likely to be disappointed not withstanding deterministic outputs. We will end up with two weeks of cool, cold and very cold weather pretty much looking at the latest models and that has been very well signposted by knowledgeable, experienced posters on here. The situation can and does change quickly and I am very hopeful that the next chase will be underway by this time next week. it’s a bit like Fulham getting into the top eight of the Premier League. Unlikely to happen and if it does it’s fleeting and to be enjoyed because the inevitable knock backs and return to normal soon follow.

My condolences to you and your family. It is a horrible disease that impacts massively on everyone close to the person suffering from the disease. My wife passed away from frontal temporal dementia at the age of 56 last year so I know and understand your pain and that of everyone else who has somebody close who has suffered from or is suffering with the disease. I am very relieved that the suffering for her has gone, as you are for your mum and I do my best to remember all the good times and my beautiful, loving, caring wife when she was well. I’m sure you have many such memories of your mum that will give you joy and comfort in the weeks, months and years to come..

Met office temperatures for Fulham, West London, don’t get above 30c between now and next Friday. Not sure anything beyond that is in the reliable. For Dunstable the top temperature is 28c for the same period. if anyone can see a met office prediction above 35c between now and the end of next week please post with screen shot. I will be surprised.

I agree - total shambles of a winter - roll on some warmth and dry weather. A strong easterly will probably sinch spot on with a nuclear episode in Ukraine- god forbid that happens.

We needed the low to be shallower and come South - give the midlands and the south a decent snow event with no structural damage to infrastructure and those planning to travel on Friday- snow would have been much more manageable- anyway not happening of course - usual crap for this country I’m afraid.

Was it the 2004/5 winter where December/January and the first part of February were very poor for Snow, a number of posters on this channel were saying that winter was over and one for the bin and then the winds turned easterly for the last 2 weeks of February and first 10 days of March. Unfortunately there was, relatively speaking, very little really cold upper air at that time to tap into. I was living in Lincolnshire at the time. We had lots of heavy snow showers on many days but lying snow was at a premium and generally temporary.

Agree - there is a great post up the page that talks about -8 850s being watered down to -5/-6 as day 10 becomes day 1. This will I’m sure be another example.

You will be wrapped up in your bobble hat, scarf and gloves at Grace Road come mid April. Drinks for the players will be hot tea and chocolate !

It certainly feels like that doesn’t it - very frustrating!

You can see the improvements in the UKM 12z output when compared with the 0z just by looking at the position and tilt of the low over NE Canada. Definitely a move to gfs. Some sort of middle ground now being achieved ?

Complete waste of time even reading these long range forecasts. How anybody can make a worthwhile prediction more than 7 days ahead for our little island god alone knows.

It would be interesting to know why those who have written off January and the script for February have done so and what they feel about the model output tonight - is it an over reaction to a teleconnection or is it as I feel and have said several times an assessment of the tpv and the very random responses which will lead to regular opportunities for cold.

Cummon Don you know you want too !

Great post - this together with Singularitys post above articulate exactly how I feel about these charts.

Feb - your a pretty good interpreter of charts IMO and we all know how challenging it is calling the uk weather 7/10 days ahead. I might consider EC46 up to week two but unlikely and I certainly wouldn’t beyond that. There are far too many people writing off this winter already. I live 30 miles NW of London- I’ve had 2 snowfalls already this winter and expect another tomorrow and potentially Thursday/Friday - I appreciate I am 600ft up but even so. To read in here would suggest something very different- I have already posted my thoughts on might potentially happen going forward.

I can’t disagree with that I’m afraid. I think there is the potential for more of that unfortunately but also potentially extreme cold as the winter goes on.

It’s where it is because of the position of the TPV which I fully understand you will appreciate. A high is SE Europe is more indicative of a west based - NAO I would have thought - with low pressure developing in and to the SW of Europe out into the Azores. Can be good for us but more often than not pretty rubbish.

Let’s see in 4 weeks time shall we - personally I think it’s a complete an utter waste of time. If it was showing griceland blocking and Low pressure across the med I wouldn’t give it 5 seconds attention.

I think it’s perfectly legitimate to talk about a lack of opportunity for cold in this thread in a realistic and professional manner. It’s all relevant. It’s pretty obvious though that the vast majority in here are desperate to see proper, severe cold that will properly deliver snow to low lying areas across our country. The posts that speculate and consider those opportunities, however far fetched they may appear, are always going to receive the most interest in this thread. I said a few days ago that I think it is very difficult to pin down the direction of travel in the medium to long term when we have a trop led PV that has regularly provided meridional patterns. We have been on the very warm side in the run up too and over the new year. We are on the colder side for a few days and we will have more opportunities for cold, perhaps severally cold, if these patterns persist, as well as exceptional warmth I’m afraid. I don’t think either will persist for very long until the underlying pattern changes.

ECM never bought into it and is not overly enthusiastic now to be fair .. I have several drinks since though so might not be as accurate as it should be. happy new year to everyone- I know for some of us that might be quite difficult given what we are facing but we have to face the best of what we have. Take care x

Great diary notes - I travelled up from Dunstable to Huddersfield on that Friday night - heavy snow all the way up the M1 but I didn’t hit problems until the turn off at Barnsley anD journey from their to Huddersfield- complete white out on a crossroads - went straight across when should have tuned left - didn’t even realise it was a crossroads ! We went to a pub just outside Halifax on Saturday lunchtime but by early afternoon it was snowing heavily - snowed all night as I remember. Happy days - look back on them very fondly.

Thank you for sharing- I was visiting my girlfriend (now my wife - but end of life with frontal temporal dementia) who was at Huddersfield polytechnic. Went up there two or three times in February and early March - very snowy and freezing cold - wearing socks and gloves in bed together- happy days - loved visiting West Yorkshire from 1984 - 1987. my worst experience was driving up on a Friday night first weekend in March 1987 - heavy snow and really poor visibility- by the grace of god I am still here !

Does anybody else feel as though the state of the PV is making it extremely difficult to predict what will happen- it’s all over the place and if the trop continues to drive the pattern as a result of the disconnect with the strat my gut feel is that there will be no locked in cold or warm but that we will continue to enjoy transient cold spells - there is a lot of cold to our north/north west and north east.

4.8c and 92mm. Thank you.

Agree - the GFS operational is quite a chilly run with hope for those with elevation and further north and north west. The ECM is a lot better for early next week than it was this time yesterday and is trending chillier by the end of next week and the PV on the final frame looks to be under some stress. It could be worse and my gut is telling me there could be some pleasant surprises for those who like more seasonal weather over the next two weeks.