Dunstable Snow

Its not often you see - 40c T850's modelled and they are modelled on our side of the NH for once. A long way off but I feel more confident of a colder spell in early mid march this morning. The pattern is changing upstream and this could give us a cold zonal flow with potential lee northerly's/North easterlies and toppling cold high pressures. Good for the north and west and potentially other areas. Things could get better from there for cold. We will see,

1st January 1979 following a severe blizzard on New Years Eve 1978. I was growing up in Folkestone at the time. The snow started on Saturday 30th December and became heavy overnight into new years eve. It snowed on and off for much of new years eve but from evening onwards the snow was blizzard like and the heaviest I have seen. The depth was up to my knees ( I was 14 at the time) on new years day and nothing moved. Happy days !

This thread reminds me of December 2015 with Knocker and SS providing 70% of the content and lots of oranges and reds on the anomaly charts. I didn't think for one minute that this February would turn into such a horrendous month for cold and take my mind back to that month! It was an interesting post from Singularity above. I suppose the message is that good background signals for cold can also work against us. Presumably the bad background signals for cold will always be bad ! I have just had a skirt through the GFS 12z NH view. Very little to get excited about based on this output. Just look at the air pressure over Iberia. It never gets below 1024mb throughout the run ! The only positive I could see was that pressure was rising over eastern Canada by the end of this run and the jet was arriving on our shores via a NW/SE trajectory. Its a long way off,certainly colder but not what the coldies amongst us would crave ( cold 850's on the GFS from PM North Westerlies are always overstated) but it may however lead to something better going forward. My gut feel and experience however remains confident of a cold and snowy period at some point during March, but more than likely mid month onwards.

The date for March and April 1975 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/e/k/apr1975.pdf https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/e/f/mar1975.pdf

Great post and a really interesting read. I wasn't old enough in 1970 to remember it but I remember the Spring of 1975 very well. I was 9 years old and living in Surrey at the time. There were a number of snowy episodes. That was a great spring for a number of reasons !

An enjoyable and interesting thread to read and some interesting thoughts to be developed further over the coming months as we try to make sense of this season. It will be very interesting to see what, if anything,comes out from the Met Office by way of a post mortem. As referenced above, they have been much more bullish than they would normally be for much of this season regarding east or north easterly winds and cold and snowy conditions develop within the 16-30 day range. This has only heightened the frustration with what has been delivered !

Your comment forced me to look at the score update. Well done so far to Newport ! Having just scooted through the NH view of the 12z GFS to the 4th March I think there is more chance of Fulham avoiding relegation from the Premier League this season than a significant cold snap at month end. Yes things turn a little colder due to a north westerly created by the north western extremity of the GB/Euro high extending up towards Greenland with support from an artic high, but at no time does it look anything exceptional and pressure remains high throughout western and southern mainland Europe, indeed by the end of the run the vortex lobe in eastern Canada is re-establishing and flattening the pattern. Having said this, I would be very surprised if we don't have a cold and snowy period during March/early April. My guess would be mid March onwards ! I really cant see anything significant before then but I very much hope I am wrong!

I fully agree with TEITS views. The subject matter is complex enough without having to try and decipher a complicated narrative and the likes of Catacol and Singularity have done this excellently and at the same time have tried to provide some explanations as to why the teleconnections based forecasts have by and large gone wrong this year. Furthermore, I am sure there will be more on this subject from them over the coming months and I very much look forward to reading their further thoughts. Whilst I acknowledge that no explanation is required or, indeed, in my view expected from those others that have posted on these matters throughout the season, I for one would appreciate and value their thoughts should they have the time and desire to do so. It will, after all, only add to the learning for us all who partake on this great forum.

That's a cracking mean chart. With reference to whether GFS or ECM is more likely very often we see a solution that is somewhere in between. That will not be the case for the middle of next week. My head is telling me it will be ECM but we need UKMO to join the party before I relax on this one. Whatever the outcome on the easterly next week the potential is clearly there for a long cold and snowy spell for many. Interestingly Stav D on BBC London Tonight at around 6.55pm specifically referenced the likelihood of easterly winds and sleet and snow for London and the South East from the middle of next week. The beeb would not be making those comments at this stage unless they were pretty confident of the outcome in my experience. Some great content in here again tonight by the way.

Remember this event very well. I was working in Luton at the time and left work around 5.30pm. We had experienced heavy rain but walking to the car it was clear the rain was turning to sleet and wet snow. By the time I go home to Dunstable it was snowing heavily and we ended up with a 6/7 inch covering on the higher ground around the town. If I recall correctly the worst conditions were slightly east of us towards Hitchin. Unfortunately, and typical of many of the events at the time (excluding Feb 1991) the snow cover was gone within a couple of days. Very enjoyable whilst it lasted though !

Yes fully agree, hope, expectation and the desire to be back in here in 3 hours time is fully intact. The good thing about where we are now given the output and background signals is the potential for upgrades is greater than downgrades. Not often we can say that.

Agreed not the best for reasons already discussed but will the high start to build to the North West as the PV transfers East and bring lows on a NW/SE trajectory through the UK ? It could be a lot better but it could also be much worse. As NWS says pressure remains low across Iberia.

Should also have included Nick Sussex in my request list above despite his team ruining my new years day.

Can you see herds of wilder beasts or the hanging gardens of Babylon GP ? Glad to see the GSFP has lightened the mood until the next panic starts. I think we are going to need regular updates from the likes of Glacier Point, Nick F, John H Blue Army Singularity Catacol, BB1962, Carithian and Steve Murr to keep us all fully informed on the ongoing direction of travel. There is just too much information to digest sometimes but updates from these guys should keep us on the straight and narrow.

Could we see upgrades from here ? Day 8 on this evenings ECM. The high sinks a little days 9 and 10 and we loose the easterly feed into the south but still very cold I suspect. The weather on the ground has been mind numbingly boring over the holiday break but model viewing and the commentary from many of the members in here has been absolutely fascinating and this will surely continue over the next few weeks as the SSW and other forcing's play out. Its a great time to be part of a weather forum so thank you and best wishes to everyone for a happy, healthy and snowy 2019 !

Not specifically met office related but felt this was probably the best place to put this. Paul Simons 'Weather Eye' column in the Times this morning specifically references the stratospheric warming event and the expected implications for our weather with bitter easterly winds from later in January through into February. He goes on to raise concerns about the lack of rainfall in the south and east of the country which will not be helped by the dryer than normal conditions that are normally associated with easterlies. It is unusual for him to reference a potential weather event so far in advance with such apparent certainty. The rest of the column talks about the met office predicting that 2019 could well be the second warmest year globally due to global warming and a developing El Nino event. The column is worth a read. I am quite happy with todays update from the met office by the way.

We are showing our age now !

We live on the Whipsnade Hill. I can walk from home to where it used to take place in about 5 minutes. They brought it back a few years ago but I havn't seen it the last 2/3 years. A great place to walk in any weather but particularly good on a summers evening just before the sun sets. If you visit the National Trust Visitor centre on top of the Downs they have pictures of it taking place.

Snowing again in Dunstable. Very little thawing today. Temperature has not got above 2c today and I spent over an hour digging us and my elderly neighbour out this morning. I appreciate we are 600ft up in the Chiltern Hills but pretty exceptional given that we are now in meteorological spring ! Given that they have been talking about greyhound racing on the MOD thread I am going to say what a cracking result for Fulham at Derby today !

I very much doubt that any of the models has got this 100% right at this range, including the ECM.A blending of the options would provide a very good event for many parts of the country. I wouldn't get too hung up on any one output, either positive or negative at this stage as long as the trends remain broadly the same. As others have alluded too, including some of the most technically gifted on here, this is a very different situation to the norm so I would not be expecting normal outcomes for the UK from this forthcoming episode of weather. I have in my post on Saturday morning nailed my flag to the mast in terms of what I think will be a likely outcome. Not a lot has changed in terms of my thinking. I therefore rather boldy in a senior managers meeting this morning warned my colleagues of the potential weather event and the disruption that it could have to our business. I gave the likelihood of severe disruption at around 40% ( we are based in the Chilterns) and recommended that we keep a very close eye on the situation and make sure we are prepared in terms of our staffing and customer communications, implementation of bad weather policy, plenty of grit etc. I hope the met office get it out there to businesses as soon as it is practical to do so. Not every business has a weather geek in their senior management team !

The chart below is the one that cheered me up more than anything else I have seen this morning. My one concern last night was the UKMET output so I am delighted to see this chart just 5 days away. At first glance it doesn't look snow laden but what will follow is not your normal firing up of the northern jet fuelled by a rampant Canadian/Greenland vortex. This is on its last legs as a result of the further warming's taking place up top and we see clear indications from the modelling of a retrogression pattern to Greenland in week 2 and possibly beyond, with a mass of frigid air out to our east and north that will continue to be topped up by the pattern. I think we are on the verge of something very memorable. As TT says above. These are once in a blue moon opportunities. He is right in my view ... I will be very surprised if the vast majority of the country does not see significant snow over the next two weeks. FWIW I think the debate in here this morning has been a good read. Many on here invest a significant amount of time, effort and emotion. Lets not be too critical if the emotion takes over a little too much some times. Its understandable at the moment. Direction of travel then... After a mild start an increasingly cold but mainly dry week as Easterly winds slowly establish themselves. Light snow flurry's into the east and south east by the end of the week , gradually turning more persistent and heavy by the end of the weekend and moving west. Heavy persistent snow for many at the start of the following week... beyond then, remaining bitterly cold with sharp frosts and occasional snow until the end of week 2... Enjoy your Saturday... COYW

Having seen the UKMET 12z from yesterday (including extended) and Oz today together with the Met Office published outlooks I fully expect us to be in an easterly flow by this time next week. Perhaps I am being overly bullish about this but don't be surprised to see GFS and ECM move towards this outcome by 12z tomorrow !

Yes I would be great to be travelling back up the M4 with 3 points and hitting light persistent snow moving west at say somewhere like Reading.... I will never forget going to see Fulham play Luton on 30 December 1978 and travelling back to Folkestone which was home at the time on that evening (I was 13 at the time) . Light persistent snow all the way back home on top of 2 points for FFC ( it was 2 points for a win then - Gordon Davies scored the winner). What followed was the snowiest spell of weather I can ever remember, snowier than 1987 and 1991 but I was probably living in the sweet spot down in South East Kent. Back to the models.... Although I remain confident that we will get an easterly, and it will appear at short notice, I do share NS and others reservations re the ops v ens. I seem to remember back in February 2009 we were in a cold and snowy spell which was scuppered by the effects of a downwelling SSW. The ensembles were resolutely cold for what seemed like an age beyond the operational's walking away from cold. We ended with a spring like second half to that month when all the indications for days one end were for a continuation of the cold. We need the ops to revert to cold and snowy asap..time is ticking !

It was always going to be a tortuous journey... A really encouraging UKMO 168. I know its a long time since we had a proper easterly but I have been following this forum and the snow watch before hand for many years and I don't ever remember one being counted down smoothly from day 10. Perhaps the closest we got to that was December 2010. I am still of the opinion that if we are going to get our Easterly it will suddenly appear at day 5/6 in the major model operational's and then the stress will be all about orientation of the high, the strength of the flow and depth of the incoming cold. The cold lovers amongst us deserve a break before winters end ....

Lots of very measured and sensible posts tonight. My Cricket Club planned outdoor nets from the beginning of March at the last meeting in January. I did say at the time that I felt they were being a tad ambitious and not to be fooled by the very mild winter thus far. I will be surprised if that is a warm and pleasant experience much before the middle of April at the very earliest...