Dunstable Snow

Well, I threw in the towel at the beginning of last week but I forgot to put my bins out for collection !. If we get to Wednesday's 12z and the GFS story is replaced across all of the main models with no downgrading of the snow potential I will start to get very interested. For the time being, I am not going to get carried away with excitement as the chances are it will only lead to a big disappointment. Here's hoping winter 2015-16 finally deliverers, the margins for adjustment however on these set ups, particularly with the lack of decent home grown cold pooling or cold immediately to our east Is small...

Well my post of about a week ago set out my reasons for throwing in the towel on decent nationwide winter weather this season. I have however continued to keep a watching brief and I just wanted to congratulate the core of regular posters on here for some excellent and informative posting that continues to keep this thread interesting despite conditions (actual and projected) on the ground. The post from singularity above highlights this but there are a number of you. Well done and keep up the good work. I just wish I had your depth of knowledge and experience.

Well, I'm not interested in putting lipstick on a pig. I can see nothing of any interest unless you live at least 1000ft above sea level in the north of the country all the way out to the middle of February. We will need exceptional synoptics to bring nationwide snow that lasts beyond 10am in the morning once we get into the second half of February . I just cant see it. far too much mobility in the synoptics, frigid cold spilling into the Eastern USA that will just fire up the jet. A minor SSW ( if we are lucky) that will, more than likely displace the PV into an unfavourable position; no strong established cold pool just to our East ( our best/classic winter have always had this) ; a strong and established high pressure belt to our south that has no opportunity to ridge north to a decent latitude, every time it tries it just get squashed by the jet ; An MJO signal that's more dithery than my aged mother.. Do I need to go on.. Please don't get me wrong, I am here because I love cold and snow in winter, I'm not here to celebrate mild wet Atlantic mush or warm and dry February's. I've tried to be positive but I have had enough. I admire those who are staying positive and promising good times are just around the corner. I will continue to keep a watching brief but I am very saddened to say that I am officially throwing in the towel on any hope for meaningful nationwide snow that last a length of time that it can be enjoyed this winter.

I hope I am massively over estimating the CET value for February but I see nothing to suggest anything other than an above average month. Sadly I think this is likely to result in the warmest recorded winter in the UK. My Guess : 6.2c. Very depressing.

Ian Brown didn't make many friends when he used to post on here ... He did however make one point which I think is quite well illustrated on the NH view charts of the 12z GFS this evening. The point - The chances of an Artic High working itself in a position to deliver meaningful sustainable cold to the UK are extremely low. If you go through the run there are plenty of examples illustrating this. I have to say, whenever I see comments referring to a nice artic high that could work in our favour I tend to discount it unless there are really compelling reasons not to do so. This is particularly the case in winters like this one where there is just too much mobility at high latitudes. I was in a grotty mood last night. Today's output hasn't helped a jot...

for the fourteenth time in the last seven days we have a day ten chart showing some interest..... I agree with IDO, the day 10 ECM chart does look interesting. Unfortunately I think we all know what day 9 will look like tomorrow.. I'm fed up and I havn't even had to suffer my football team playing today. Sorry mods if this should be in another thread

Just had a click flick through the 12z GFS NH charts. The chart below is about as good as it gets with regard to a mid atlantic ridge trying to link up with heights to the north. Not surprisingly it is flattened within 24 hours and is heading for its comfortable place of safety in Europe. I had some hopes earlier on this month for at least a decent spell of sustainable nationwide cold but this has now disappeared. There is just far too much west to east energy being generated by a very cold and powerful vortex. As such I can't see beyond south west, west and north westerly flows with perhaps temporary more northerly incursions. None of these will be any good for snow that lasts more than 5 minutes (if we are lucky) anywhere south of the north midlands. I do very much agree with SM's assessment. I also agree with other posts regarding GP's lack of posting and I would also add to that Tamara. Very knowledgeable people and very articulate with their posts. It has to be said though I will be amazed if suggested excitement regarding weather on the ground intimated by their posts earlier this month materialises in February. With a month of winter to go I now feel very confident that we can write off the rest of winter as regards a decent nationwide snow and ice event. I also now consider that the warmest winter on record is 65/70% likely. I havn't seen one winter forecast that even suggested that If I come over as irritable then Its because I am. Three completely crap winters in a row and I am slowly but surely loosing any joy in this hobby. I really do need to emigrate...

The NH view on the ECM at 240 is interesting. Pressure high right across the Artic from Alaska to Siberia and a strong -AO signal. The core of the PV this side of the globe still to the North West of the British Isles leaving us in a Westerly/South westerly flow and pressure high to the south. Can things progress positively from here with the core of the PV relocating to Scandi and western Siberia and low heights draining away from Greenland and NE Canada? This would appear to be the route map outlined by many of the experts including IF and the meto. How long will it take and how far north will the ridging get ? A mid Atlantic ridge that doesnt ridge strongly up into or link with high pressure in the Artic is about as exciting as Sunday tea at my nan's for those of us south of the north midlands (particularly when we get beyond mid winter) I think we all deserve significantly better than that given what we have had to suffer over the last three years. Enjoy your weekend everyone.

well that's a little more encouraging - the signs have been there however :- Strong cold pool just to the East now well established Vortex under pressure and will continue to be so going forward. The strong heights modelled to the South are strongly influenced by forcing from the PV. If this remains under pressure and we can get back into -AO territory these heights will come under pressure. I thought it was very interesting yesterday to read BA's comments re the GFS P runs and most significantly the comments from IF. He doesn't make these sort of comments for the sake of it... A long way to go but lets see where it takes us. End of January/beginning of February is a perfect time for a strong sustained easterly to set in . Do keep in mind that these synoptics are a week or so away - there will be a lot of model pain to go through to land this thing !

Just had a quick look at the 12z GFS and as others have alluded to it is quite an interesting run. Not great for the south but certainly some interest from the North Midlands northwards I would suggest. I remain encouraged by attempt to build heights at high latitudes near Greenland ( I have attached NH view to demonstrate ( appreciate its FI and 10 days away but a characteristic of much of the GFS 12z output for a period of the run. The pattern is just a little bit too far north. If buts and maybe's but 200/300 miles further south would make a significant difference to the outcome for the whole of our little island.

The P.V looks to be under extreme pressure at 240 on tonight's ECM. Very close to a complete split. I remain confident that we will be into a much colder pattern by the end of the second week of January. That's not to say that Steve's brave call earlier won't come to fruition .. I sincerely hope it does. Brave call but very entertaining to read and much more enjoyable than endless pages of red coloured temperate anomaly maps and FI ensemble means... Whatever your weather preferences a very happy, healthy and prosperous 2016 to all at net weather.

As Nick alluded to earlier signs of Azores high dragged west and trying to link north up towards Greenland. Not sure that it will make it but signs at last of the atlantic becoming less active. I remain optimistic that we will eventually see a much colder pattern develop as we move into the second full week of January. Those of us that love cold and snow certainly deserve a break having endured the last two winters and the first month of this one !

I am going to be optimistic and go with 3.1C. Very cold second half of the month. Cheers

I have put the post below in the Winter 2014-15 thread but thought it was relevant for the regional as well. I suspect on my winter index all of us in this region are currently scoring 0 ! It is interesting to read the different perspectives on this winter so far and where it sits against others. It certainly seems that the further north you are, especially with elevation, the more palatable this winter has been. I have a very simple view on whether a winter has been a good one or not for my location sat about 550 ft up in the Chiltern hills. The question I ask myself is this ' Has the winter produced weather that is very highly unlikely to be repeated in any other season ? This, in my view, means the following :- A reasonable number of days ( say minimum 8 of which the snow element to be minimum 4) across the 90 day period of the following weather experiences :- 1) Falling snow that accumulates and then has at least 1 day without any thaw in the shade. 2) A frost that lasts all day in the shade and starts to reform as soon as the sun sets. Although I have experienced a number of days with snow falling and several frosts the sum total for this season is currently 0. Looking at the current charts it seems highly unlikely that the score will get to 1 within the next 10 days and that will leave c 10 days of winter left ! I therefore suspect that I will be assessing this winter as very poor overall. I do appreciate that this winter has been better than what was delivered for the 90 day period from 1st December 2013- 28 February 2014 but quite why anyone would want to compare this winter against that period and use it as a benchmark is beyond me. I can't even bring myself to call it a winter season as to my mind we had an extended autumn that then moved uninterrupted into Spring. No doubt there will be a bit of a post mortem once winter is over. I have to say however that I will be hard pushed to read a better summary of the frustrations surrounding this years non delivery than that posted by Matt Hugo on the Strat thread yesterday. If you have not read it then I suggtest that you take the time to do so. It sums up my views/feelings entirely. I do admire anyone who has taken the time to put together a seasonal winter forecast. So much work goes into so many of them and they all make a lot of sense. It seems to me that there are just so many variables and it seems as though only one needs to work against us for the whole blxxdy cold potential to dissapear and the dial to swing towards mild or cool rather than deep cold. I have to say that when we got to the Christmas period and there was no real sign of a strong and deep cold pool building to our East across Western Russia, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe I was starting to worry. If you look back at a long of the historic cold winters the vast majority had this characteristic in place. The hype back in the late Autumn suggested that this would happen and I was certainly hoping that a strong cold block would establish in aforementioned areas and start to influence Western Europe. It was not to be.... I will be looking for the same characteristics in early winter next year, and again if they do not materialise I will start to worry. Already it seems that the QBO will be West based next year and that will be expected to work against us. Whatever the signals I will be back for another season and will thoroughly enjoy the reading and learning experience. I do hope we have some very late winter and early Spring cold to send us all into the spring and summer period in better spirits.

It is interesting to read the different perspectives on this winter so far and where it sits against others. It certainly seems that the further north you are, especially with elevation, the more palatable this winter has been. I have a very simple view on whether a winter has been a good one or not for my location sat about 550 ft up in the Chiltern hills. The question I ask myself is this ' Has the winter produced weather that is very highly unlikely to be repeated in any other season ? This, in my view, means the following :- A reasonable number of days ( say minimum 8 of which the snow element to be minimum 4) across the 90 day period of the following weather experiences :- 1) Falling snow that accumulates and then has at least 1 day without any thaw in the shade. 2) A frost that lasts all day in the shade and starts to reform as soon as the sun sets. Although I have experienced a number of days with snow falling and several frosts the sum total for this season is currently 0. Looking at the current charts it seems highly unlikely that the score will get to 1 within the next 10 days and that will leave c 10 days of winter left ! I therefore suspect that I will be assessing this winter as very poor overall. I do appreciate that this winter has been better than what was delivered for the 90 day period from 1st December 2013- 28 February 2014 but quite why anyone would want to compare this winter against that period and use it as a benchmark is beyond me. I can't even bring myself to call it a winter season as to my mind we had an extended autumn that then moved uninterrupted into Spring. No doubt there will be a bit of a post mortem once winter is over. I have to say however that I will be hard pushed to read a better summary of the frustrations surrounding this years non delivery than that posted by Matt Hugo on the Strat thread yesterday. If you have not read it then I suggtest that you take the time to do so. It sums up my views/feelings entirely. I do admire anyone who has taken the time to put together a seasonal winter forecast. So much work goes into so many of them and they all make a lot of sense. It seems to me that there are just so many variables and it seems as though only one needs to work against us for the whole blxxdy cold potential to dissapear and the dial to swing towards mild or cool rather than deep cold. I have to say that when we got to the Christmas period and there was no real sign of a strong and deep cold pool building to our East across Western Russia, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe I was starting to worry. If you look back at a long of the historic cold winters the vast majority had this characteristic in place. The hype back in the late Autumn suggested that this would happen and I was certainly hoping that a strong cold block would establish in aforementioned areas and start to influence Western Europe. It was not to be.... I will be looking for the same characteristics in early winter next year, and again if they do not materialise I will start to worry. Already it seems that the QBO will be West based next year and that will be expected to work against us. Whatever the signals I will be back for another season and will thoroughly enjoy the reading and learning experience. I do hope we have some very late winter and early Spring cold to send us all into the spring and summer period in better spirits.

Light snow falling in Dunstable. Elevation has certainly helped - c 1.5cm of lying snow. I hope that Kent gets to see some decent snow action later on. I lived in Folkestone for many of my childhood years in the late 70s and early 80s. Experienced some great convective snow events. My sons at Uni in Canterbury so if it does kick off I will be on the phone to him. Have a good day everyone.

You too - we will be slumming it in H4!

Yes, off shortly to Fulham tonight with the wife ( I take her to all the best places) If we do get a repeat of last night the journey back to Dunstable after the game could be interesting. My perfect night - Good journey down to Fulham - a pint in the crabtree before the game, Fulham to win 3-0 and a journey home in light snow become moderate/heavy as we walk through the front door !

Snowing heavily on Dunstable Downs. Snow readily accumulating. Hope everyone gets their fair share over the next few days. I am quite excited by prospects for our region over the next few days. For those in South and East Kent remember that you will still be receiving snow showers at the end of the week when Bedfordshire has turned bone dry !

Lets be positive - 3.8 for me - Poor first 10/15 days - something much more seasonal in the second half of the month.

Well back on Saturday after the 12z I expressed some optimism regarding what the ECM was showing in its later stages given the other much touted background signals. Sad to say that this optimism has dissipated rather rapidly for now ! Certainly not giving up on the rest of January let alone winter but I am struggling to stomach the MOD output at the present time ( I have tried laughing at it but it just doesn't work for me I'm afraid !). Its a shame because when the models get into a run like this the life and excitement within this forum drains away very quickly. The lack of postings from many of the big hitters is a clear evidence of this but hats off to those who continue to post despite finding the whole situation rather frustrating. Time for me to take a break from viewing the ops and ensembles. I will keep an eye on the strat output and the METO 16-30 day and tentatively come back to the ops if things look like taking a turn for the better. Happy new year to one and all.

Just catching up. Light/moderate snow showers earlier in Dunstable when out for a run. Having not seen a single flake last winter it made me feel good to be alive and put an extra spring in my step ! Liked the look of the ECM12z - some encouraging signs regarding pressure patterns over the artic. A long way to go but the potential for severe cold in our part of the world second/third week of January is very much alive.

Having fully agreed with Crewe's post earlier I confess to being a little encouraged by tonight's ECM run. The run sort of makes sense given what is happening ( and projected to happen) in the stratosphere together with the other 'key drivers' outlined within Tamar's post and highlights the potential for some significant cold in North Western Europe from end of week 2 of January. still lots to fall into place beyond this frame and of course it could all go frustratingly wrong but it does highlight the fact that there are drivers working for us this winter. It will be interesting to see what the extended ECM ensembles have to show later. My gut feel is that we will get there eventually but it might need another attempt - perhaps 3rd/4th week of January. Once it does set in however I do think it will be long lasting. I liked swilliam post above re January 2013 as it highlighted how shallow higher heights perfectly positioned to the North of the UK drove the advancing atlantic depressions to take a more southerly route than normal and provided a number of significant snow events for large swathes of the country including the south. Here in Dunstable we had two significant falls between the 18th-20th January. This set up was much more effective for UK wide snow than the huge Russian/Siberian high in place the previous year which brought significant cold and snow to much of Europe but the UK was very much on the western edge of the severe cold.

It has to be 1978 for me. I was 13 at the time and living on the northern edge of Folkestone in Kent. If I recall correctly the weather was mild and wet on Christmas and Boxing Day but by the 28th very cold air to the North of the UK was starting to spread south. Many parts of the country were suffering with floods and the rain was now turning to snow ( I recall a report on the BBC showing severe flooding in York with the streets covered in flood water but the roofs covered in thick snow). By the 30th the cold air had reached us on the south coast and I recall going to London with my dad and brother to watch Fulham v Luton (Fulham won 1-0). There were light snow flurries and it was bitterly cold during the game. I remember the crowds on the terraces huddling close together on the Hammersmith end terrace just to keep warm ! Light snow fell for much of the journey home and by the time we got back home to Folkestone the snow flakes were small but persistent and being blown about in a very strong easterly wind and penetrating the window sills in many of the bedrooms. On the 31st it snowed on and off for much of the day and on the night of new years eve we had persistent very heavy snowfall which left depths of 10-12 inches. The rest of that winter was predominantly cold and snowy and I remember a particularly snow spell for our part of the world later in January and again in February. Happy days - I always loved snowfall but the memory of that fall and the winter that followed will stay with me for the rest of my days. Sorry for my rambling reminiscing but I suppose this is what this thread is all about. Have a great Christmas everyone and lets hope that the upgrades seen on the models this evening continue and we all get to see some decent falls of snow.

An optimistic 3.1c