Dunstable Snow

Ive had a couple of glasses of red but I am not drawing the same conclusions Im afraid. There are a number of colder T2m options available for De Bilt than the op and control. The colder option for pretty much all of the UK is game on again tonight as a reasonable possibility. The synoptics are fascinating and we will learn a lot from this winter and spring I think. Anybdoy calling where the cold and mild boundary is going to end up is a brave person, but as several have said , somewhere in the UK is going to get a pasting.Personally, I very much hope that we end up with one last big snow event with a slow but gradual warm up through April and a long hot and dry summer. I think this has been a fascinating late October through to March period. I do feel though that we have missed out on some great opportunities for sustained cold and snow. This could have been a really big winter ! Cheers all.

Good luck to you all in the south east of the region. You are will placed for plenty. I am too far north and west to enjoy anything significant certainly from the initial blast but just scyped my son at uni in Canterbury and made him aware of impending conditions for that part of our region. Hope those in Norflok, Suffolk, Essex, Kent, Sussex and Surrey do well out of this. Steve M - Congrats on your 10,000th post - A cracking mix of youthfull enthusiasm and great knowledge very well articulated - well done.

5.4 for me please. Struggling to see a major mild pattern in the foreseable and with significant cold pooling to the north and north east there is a chance that we could encounter some significant cold uppers for a period during the month. I have to say that I have been cr*p at this all winter so I will be amazed if I am close on this one !

I am sure there will be some chopping and changing over the next few runs and whilst the significant cold pool remains to the north and north east there is hope. We are however it seems to me reliant on a high pressure from the artic to significantly aid delivery of a cold spell come second week of march and I have to say that my experience of these beasts delivering for the UK even when all the chips are lined up in a row is not good. I do think we will experience below average temperatures and their might be some brief excitement for the North/North East over the next two weeks but i just cant see a full on blast of cold uppers to give most of us what we desire. I hope I am wrong and if it does deliever then it will be very enjoyable to experience. I love to see snow falling in the early light evening leading to a healthy overnight covering and a white cold/sunny spring morning That said, if it doesn't deliver then I do not sit in the 'if it cant be cold and snowy then lets have the warmth now' camp. I would much rather see a slow and sporadic warm up with cold blasts during spring leading to some sustained warmth/hot with thundery breakdowns come the summer.

I think this is a sensible post. I think there is every chance the boundary between very cold and less cold/mild could well end up over Britain with some significant contrasts in weather being experienced across the country.

Fully agree - to be fair you have highlighted this potential for a few days now. Those of us in the south east have been a little pre-occupied with other matters so to speak...!

Interesting re-inforcement of the pattern alluded to by Crewe Cold and others ( including RJS) on the 18z. Pattern looks to be further east than recent output and would ensure a frigid end to winter and start of the meteorological spring. Let us hope that the ECM starts to seriouly pick up the batton on this over the next 2/3 days. In the meantime the s/e quarter remains firmly in the game for some snow from Thursday through Monday and Kent/Sussex could end up with some significant localised falls in my view. Plenty to keep us interested....

Been out with the wife and had a great night with a few sherberts thrown in. The 18z is on a similar trip. Back to reality with a bumb tomorrow ? ... Seriously This would be wonderful if it verified and actually deliver what much of this winter has promised. I said a while ago that i thought we would have a decent cold spell with retrogression and ultimately a death to the cold resulting from a West based -NAO and this looks more likely given the output over the last couple of days. A strong convective easterly followed by a slider low bringing copious amounts of snow would be a great way to go out. I do think it will be early to mid March before the cold gives up thje ghost over the core of the country.

Well the closing frames of the ECM are dreamy and would give us a great end to winter and a very cold start to spring. The evolution looks plausible and could progress at a faster and less stressful rate were more energy to go South East earlier. As Steve says its going to be a long 5 or 6 days but with clearly such a strong signal for the jet stream to go south and heights to extend to the north of Britian ( evidenced by upper air patterns also) I feel reasonably confident that we will have an evolution that ultimately ends up with high pressure extending west to the north of the UK towards Greenland. The really encouraging thing with these charts is that the PV looks primed to drop into the gap through Eastern Scandy/Western Russia and this would undoubtedly give us the coldest spell of the winter notwithstanding the time of year and TEITS would certainly get his convective Easterly with plenty of snow showers and some brightness between the showers - perfect ! ( as long as the wind doesnt veer too much to the South of East in which case it could be grey and dank . I wouldnt be surprised to see this pattern lock in for a period but ultimately become west based -NAO in line with GP's initial thoughts for February as we go towards mid March. If that does materialise we will all be ready for a decent spring by the time Easter arrives and we can join in with Gavin's enthusiasm for settled and dry ! Cheers

Just to clarify - ( re above) referring to the extended ensembles not the 10 days - these continue to trend strongly cold !

Plenty of mild options as well as cold. Of course the mild could well be the result of a west based - NAO. We get the retrogression but it keeps going west and Western Europe ends up coming under attack from the south and south west. not seen the postage stamps so this may not be the explanation. Would be bloody typical if we ended up with a quick retrogression to this scenario !

Very interesting set of ECM ensembles tonight. Not surprised Gavin has'nt posted them !

Dont worry you will get used to it ! Cold and snow in the UK is never straight forward. The charts can look great 3/4/5 days out and then implode particularly in a situation like this when conditions on the ground are so marginal for snow for many of us. In many respects this adds to the 'charm' of the experience. Its like being in a volatile relationship with a woman you really love.. you can try and predict whats going to happen next ..chances are you will be dissapointed and wrong but every now and then ( and this can be extremely patchy) things work out great..

Normally I would agree but I dont think so tonight - I think many feel the writing is on the wall and TBH it will be a bit of a shock to me if things start to improve significantly for cold and snow down south from hereon in whatever the run/model... Hope I'm wrong though ! I am more interested in what happens mid week because I still feel there is a chance things could improve.

Great explanation - thank you. Wrong angle of approach presumably due to low uppers around greenland and a re-envigorating Azores high Grrrrr

Thanks Roger - Having read that I will soon be pouring my third glass - doesnt sound great for us then ! Pleased for our jolly Dutch friend though.

Agree with your analysis but things can and do change quickly and we could see a flip back to disruption and energy under. It just looks as though the energy from the waning PV is weakening and taking the easiest route in a meandering sort of way and that is north.. Its a bloody pain and just typical of how things work out for the UK. you would think that a declining PV to the north west would work in our favour and the scandi high would march west. It would be great if we could have a technical explanation of why the models are showing this ( in non technical language !). BTW have already succumbed and now on my second glass !

Very underwelming tonight and not how I was expecting things to pan out going forward.Still nothing set in stone at this stage and things could still work out more favourably going forward beyond the weekend. There is just not enough energy modelled to go SE from the atlantic beyond this weekend and this allows the Azores high to have far too much of an influence and ultimately join up with the HP from Scandi. From then on in its a never ending route to boring nothingness. As for the shorter term again underwelming and I am particularly dissapointed that the convective stuff is now looking far less exciting than it was just 36 hours ago. it seems that SM post last night quoting the 2 scenarios for the sunday/monday/tuesday event and suggesting the second least favourable one will be on the money. I have to say its at times like these that we need good quality input from GP/RJS/BFTP to salvage our Friday night - otherwise I am just going to have to hit the red wine !

Yep , fully agree , and where I live now normally does well in these situations ...far enough east to be on the cold side of the low , but far enough west to get decent precipitation , and far enough north with altitude etc .. I just hope for your neck of the woods that the convective NE kicks in and lasts for a reasonable period of time. If it does you will do far better than me out of this ( as will my son in Uni at Canterbury !). Cheers

Fully understand where you are coming from Tamara but , for the reasons I stated earlier I think we will descend reasonably quickly into a prolonged cold spell that will see us through until the end of February (not withstandingt the odd milder day) whilst we get there. Having lived in Folkestone as a child in the mid/late 70's and early 80's I k now what a cracking place that can be for cold and snow when the synpotics are right but it does need to deliver over the next three /four weeks for your part of the world. I am confident it will

Very frustrating for where i am ! half an hour in the car and into a snow fest ! As you say lots of uncertainty and I wouldnt be surpised to see this shifted further east or west dependant upon the strenght of the cold block. Thank you for sharing this with us. You do really add value by sharing with us the latest information that you can from the met office. I am sure you would like to share with us your 'gut feel' but appreciate you could be getting into 'deep watre' for doing so. Cheers

Cracking analysis as usual so thank you... really appreciated. I would say that my team fulham are about as effective again Man utd, Chelseaand Man City as the GFS is when calling the antlantic against a cold block from the north East as modelled now until we get into T48 ? Is my analysis fair ?!

I know that I have been critical of the GFS lately as have many others. There are certainsituations where it performs strongly and it also has a habit of identifying long term changes in synoptic situations but then walking away from them until the mid /.close range ( Particularlycold). This season we have seen scenarioes , as we are seeing now , where the atlantic is coming up against a cold block from the east. In my 9 years of viewing charts and following commentary on the site the GFS has ALWAYS struggled with this scenario. It hardly gets the distribution of energy from a disrupting trough correctly modelled and will invariably send too much energy north and east destroying the block. You only have to view the charts and read the contributions of SM & TEITS ( and others) time and time again this winter.Now is a classic example. IB provides a good balance here with his posts this winter and if the scenario is going to go 'up the spout' he will identify it. My own take on this particular situation is that given the time of year. projected movement of the canadian portion of the vortex , and current position of our cold block we will be very unlucky not to see a protracted cold and, for some, snowy spell. I think GP/BFTP/SM/CH/RJS may well end have having called this right. Time will tell .. but i think the next couple of weeks could be great for us coldies. Cheers

Time will tell - if it continues to show trough disruption to the west of the Uk and Ireland and energy heading south east with an intensifying cold pool over northern europe and scandinavia I am sure it will be popular whatever it is called !

It ask questions and throws out scenario's but unless the answer is straightforward and the norm it hasnt got a clue and will always be a follower. I have worked with a fair few of those over those years.....