Dunstable Snow

He talked about developmenmts high up (pointed up to re-inforce the message !) in the atmosphere having a major effect on our weather in the latter part of January. Did not mention cold specifically but suggested that viewers stay tuned. The overiding impression was one of excitement at a major development that we could potentially all feel on the ground. Lets hope so !

Interesting reading comments about not mentioning the potential cold spell arising from SSW ! Its a bit like Bazil Fawlty's dont mention the war sketch ! Anyway, I jumped in with both size 9's at a new years eve party. At around 1am we were asked by the host to come up with an interesting fact. I was second one in and the first participant is an IT geek so you can guess what his example was like... anyway, having consumed 2 bottles of red by this point i jumped in with my SSW fact to be followed up by a second 'canadian based' warming ( their was a canadian present so thought topicle) and potentially further warmingleading to severecold at mid latitudes. Unfortunately I didnt dwell too much on the fact that no guarantees for cold ! It was interesting to see how all 11 present got very excited about the prospect of snow and cold bar my wife who cant stand the stuff ! I hope that I m not going to be eating humble pie with this but I suspect most there were to drunk to remember. FWIW I think we will have some tooing and frowing over the nextcouple of days and then the moddles will pick up on a quick route to cold (within 168) which will then be sustained (with the normal waxing and waning) over the following weeks through to mid February. Great analysis on here tonight by the way. Good to see SM back on form and the input from IF, together with CH JH and GP and others much appreciated. Cheers Cheers

An optimistic 2.8c for me please. Happy new year to everyone Cheers

Oh well at least its Christmas.... The last time I posted there looked ot be a real possibility of a west based negative NAO setting up. Whilst I doubt that would have delivered anything worthwhile from a coldies perspective we are now faced with the atlantic conveyor belt and donwstream pressure rises over Western Europe. Perhaps thats what we deserved when we started to wish away the Russian high ! At least most of continental Europe was in the freezer now it looks as though these same areas will also turn very mild for the time of year. Not good I suspect for our long term prospects for winter cold. The charts at the moment and my football teams (Fulham) rapid descent towards the premier league relegation zone are leaving me a little disheartened this evening. That said I would like to wish everybody on this great site a great Christmas break. Hopefully by this time next week things will be looking up on both fronts but I wont be putting any money on it ! Cheers

Quick question Dunstable are you the legend that is Philip Eden? I am not I'm afraid ! Wish I had his weather knowledge and experience to bring to this forum ! I know that he used to live in Luton. Not sure where he resides these days.

I will drink to that ! Cheers

Agree - So far this winter there has been too much energy in the North Atlantic and this has prevented heights to our North East being able to move far enough West to positively affect our weather from a cold perspective. I am very nervous about the re set and where it may leave us but with the PV and projected strat state as it is I do believe we will ultimately have a 'good spell' so too speak. Not too worried about xmas day as we have to travel but would love a really cold spell to set in between Christmas and new year ! Note you are in Surrey - although I spent much of my childhood in Kent ( Folkestone) I spent my early childhood in Sutton and my dads family are from Fulham so I know your part of the world pretty well. I can only remember a couple of snowy spells from my time in Surrey but Kent was a very different ball game when the wind was in the right direction ! Cheers

Enjoyed looking at the ramp charts - if only ! Its been a very strange winter on the model thread not replicated by conditions on the ground. Its about time some cards were dealt in our favour but I suspect we will be dissapointed. I can see some potential for the North West of the UK in the latest charts. Wish I could see the low heights digging further south and East but we just know that heights to the south or SW's will develop in the flow and ruin our chances. I am also fearful that a west based negative NAO will set up as we proceed into the new year leaving us feeling pretty downcast and frustrated. I am confident that we will utlimately see a good spell of cold and wintry weather but suspect this will not arrive on our shores until the last third of January. I just wish that the displaced Russain high had delivered. Having lived much of my childhood in Kent I know just how well they and the Scandinain high can deliver for the South East. Even here in Dunstable we did very well out of the cold spell last February with two significant snow falls and snow lying for around 10 days. In the meantime I can hear the rain falling heavily on the conservatory. Very glad that I am nearly 600ft above see level near the top of Whipsnade hill. I can only sympathise with those in the high flood risk areas and hope that they do not encounter again what they had to suffer last month. Cheers

Sorry just re-read my post and should have said west based negative NAO route - apologies - too much red wine tonight !

Not posted for a while but tried to keep up with this thread in between very busy work commitments. Fully agree with Nick S assesment and those of a couple of other learned members earlier. Perhaps our start point given the experience of the last few weeks should be to assess what can and is likely to go wrong when we see a set of encouraging charts ( as per 18Z tonight) before we assess the positives . At least then if things stay the same or upgrade the mood can only lighten as we go forward ! I have to say that I am very nervous about proceeding down the west based NAO route. If this is the road we start to journey down as we proceed into the new year I fear for the mood on this thread. My teenage sons keep telling me what a miserable old man I am ( I'm not that old by the way !) and the above comments suggest they may be right. I am going to end on a positive however :- The North West will I feel do quite well out of this set up next week and developments within the stratosphere and the continued pressure placed on the polar vortex will, I believe, utlimately lead to a cold and wintry outbreak. I suspect that this may not arrive until last week of January however, but I believe will be long lasting- up to 3 weeks - .We are, I suspect, going to endure some pain before hand. Cheers.

Just watched the video through. Great job with this. Very easy to follow and understand. Not drowned in detail just key headlines which makes it easy for a novice like me to follow the key messages. Lets hope the NAO in Feb doesn't get too far west although we may need a relief from the cold by then if severest case scenario pans out ! Cheers

I know that you are not and you are a poster who I respect and enjoy reading. I remember well your battle with Ian last January and respected you quality of input. You were right then , but so was he to a fashion but it took 17/18 days for what you were saying to materialise and it certainly did in the SE midlands. That may well be the case this time round for cold as we know that cold more often than not takes a protracted route to these shores. I just get a feeling this time round that there is the potential for things to change at short notice to cold and stay there. Its not the preferred option but it could happen and that is the point I was trying to make - 14 days is a long time in poltics and meteorology !

CC has made his decision - no significant cold and snow for the next 14 days - see above !! Myself and a couple of others are saying that its not so clear cut and we would not want to call it yet - I have read through the post and that is my understanding ! Fully respect peoples views but some have already called it - CC being one !

I fully understand where you are coming from CC but your earlier post refers to a 14 day timescale. What I do see during that period is the potential for snow for many, frequent frosts and temperatures well below average. Perhaps the issue here is the definition of widespread snow - The far south may well miss out but from the South Midlands northwards I think there is a real opportunity for snow, frost and temperatures well below average. The potential is also there for a trigger low setting up an easterly - this could happen and then the far south becomes a player, maybe a major player. I just feel that you have dimissed the chances out of hand based on the current model output without considering the picture picture, which to be honest is most unlike you. If we had a flat zonal pattern and a firing up northern jet then yes. I dont quite see that at the moment and I think that is the point Z is making also. If the northern jet does fire up then yes it is probably good night for 2/3 weeks but we are not there yet in my view. Lets see whwere we are come the middle of December !

I agree with this assesment. I fully respect CCs view of the situation but i sense that he is being a little one sided in his assesment of the current sitiation. I would say it is 60/40 that he has accurately assessed the current outcome but the above post clearly outlines the differences we are seeing as we go into this winter season. I suspect he may have met up with Ian for a coffee !

Evening everyone, Lets try to stay positive and not over react to each model run ( good or bad) and lets try and keep the big picture in focus. I remain very encouraged by the continuing disruption of the PV, troughing over Europe and the build up of cold in the key areas. We are about to the enter the start of winter and the overall prospects for this winter for cold and snow remain as good as I can remember. To use a football analogy we are creating plenty of chances - sooner or later there is a great chance we will start scoring goals. This time last year we were penned deep in our own half without possession. Cheers

Been very much on catch up through this and the preceeding threads over the last few days. The pick up in activity is hardly surprising given the terrific synoptics being thrown up in the short, medium and longer term. I do feel that the last few days will prove to be a great learning experience for those of us who do not have the knowledge and experience of our more learned colleagues and to have this experience right at the start of winter is even better. Lets hope we are able to continue to draw on this experience throughout the next three months and into early Spring. When I last posted in here about a week ago I said that I felt we would have an outcome as to the first bout of cold by close of play on Tuesday and then be looking very closely at the onset of a second wave. I think events up to the weekend are now pretty much nailed but their is the potential for many part of the UK to enjoy some snow and stay cold should the late weekend slider low slip further south and west. Beyond that and things look very interesting again from mid/late next week. What I am particularly encouraged about is the building cold pool to our East and North East. If you read the book 'Frozen In Time' it specifically refers to the importance of a deepening and expanding cold pool out to the East and North becoming a major player in our most memorable cold winters ( 47/ 62/63 & 78/79). I hope to see that trend continue over the coming weeks and then hopefully we can enjoy some sustained and frequent cold into January and February rather than the disintergation of cold which we saw in the 2010/11 winter. Cheers

Been wrestling with this for a day or two . Mild looks to be a long way from home. I also believe we will see snow cover from early on in the month and this could lead to some very low night time minima. Going for 1.4c .

Agree with this and Ians comments above. Not sure we will know where we are finally going with this until Monday/Tuesday and then we will be starting to restle with the 'second phase' of cold - hopefully !

Agree that some of the output tonight is not what we would ideally want but this is all part of the experience of watching/interpreting and commenting on the models. This was never going to be a straightforward process and now that we are within timescales where shortwaves are modelled into the synoptic output the roller coaster of emotions are heightened. My preference for charts becoming reality would definately be the BOM output but somehow I just cant see that happening. It looks far too clean and straightforward. Would be a great way to start the winter though ! I actually think the comment on here has by and large been balanced, mature and humorous, certainly more so than I have seen in the past. This makes the thread a much more pleasant read and helps to keep expectations at realistic levels. Cheers.

Agree fully with this. Nick Sussex often refers to model watching like being on a roller coaster and therefore far from straight forward. The only time things seem simple and easy to follow is when we have a zonal flow from West to East with a roaring Polar Vortex and limpet highs to the South. I have to say in that scenario I rapidly loose interest. Lets enjoy what we have at the minute despite the confusion and conflicting signals. it could be a lot worse !

Just a quick note to say how much I have enjoyed reading this thread over the last couple of days. The educational content for somebody with my level of knowledge has been excellent and I really appreciate it. I have particularly enjoyed the posts regarding the importance of the upstream pattern and southerly extending troughing down the Eastern Seaboard as a pre-curser for cold in the UK; the importance of reviewing and analysing the upper air profile through the 500mb charts to indicate what is likely to be happening at the ground; the significance of negatively tilted troughing in taking upstream energy into the southern arm of the jet. All sounds fairly fundamental but the quality and simplicity of the explanations is to be applauded and I will be looking out for or at these features regularly going forward. So are we going to taste some real winter sometime soon ? What I do think is that the current and projected state of the Polar Vortex and potential developments in the strat will lead to cold and possibly snowy outbreaks somehwere across the mid lattitudes by early December. Will we join the party ? Certainly the big hitters on here have supported and continue to support potential prospects of cold from either the North West, North, North East or East so I think we will be unlucky to miss out. If we do, then my gut feel is that we will enjoy a mid lattitude with some home grown cold with frost and fog. Coming from the South East my personal preference would be for a sustained and increasingly bitter easterly flow, occasionally backing North East, then North and back again. As Steve and others have said there is massive potential in the later ECM charts that could well lead to worthwhile Easterly flow. I suspect my wishes however may well be a wish too far ! Finally, reading Weather Eaters first post this afternoon brought home to me just how unimportant the chase for cold and snow is in the overall scheme of things. That said, his post also highlighted the importance of having such a diverse and interesting hobby as the weather to follow in helping to kee body and soul together. I hope you make a full and speedy recovery aided by the enjoyment of great charts for cold and snow which become reality !

Thanks Steve for a top quality post that is easy to follow and very well illustrated with frequent but wholly relevant references to charts. Your post highlights the potential for cold from the East and then North whilst acknowledging that the journey will be a bumpy one .Ultimately we may not reach the desired destination for cold and snow but I dont think anyone can discount that there is currently a not insignificant opportunity for cold arriving on our shores withion the next 15-20 days ( perhaps sooner). Thanks again for an excellent read.

Hi everyone, Been lurking for a long while and decided to take the plunge and post. Thoroughly enjoyed the video. Congratulations for making a content full of technical aspects relatively easy for me to follow. I think those of us who like cold and snow will be encouraged by Stwarts current assesment of forthcoming winter prospects. Thanks again.