Dunstable Snow

Agree totally - that chart would produce a lot snow to central and easten parts. I just cant make sense of the GFS tbh. If i performed like that at work I would have been out of a job by now. Why do we bother ?

one run plus 6 xECM runs and a very strong set of 12z ECM ensembles today ! Just want to see the UKMO on board over the next 24 hours and we can start to look forward to a prolonging of the cold and many more parts of the country enjoying the snow. I have to admit to have been fearing the worst over the last day or so when viewing each ECM run given the debacle last December partciularly given the meto retiscence thus far to really by in to the ECM op solutions but I am feeling quite a bit more confident tonight on a cold and snowy outcome. If the East does win out the developments with the Canadian segment of the PV over the coming weeks and the position of our cold block perfectly placed to move west and an attractive northern latitiude for cold to our shores could well lead to us enjoying a very prolonged cold spell and if that is the case then hats off to RJS/BFP and GP. I really do hope so and I think some of the analysis on here has been excellent (SM in particular) whatever the eventual outcome.

Optimistic that the second half will really deliver. 1.9C for me please

Apologies - just read my post and noticed a few typos etc - I think you all understand the points I was trying to make ! First few glasses of red for several weeks. Anyway outside very heavy snow and laying on cleared paths and cars - moisture content much higher than the recent falls - wet and sticky !

Well, when the wife and I were walking up the hill from the Indian it was light rain. Just looked outside and its now heavy snow. Classic case of evaporate cooling kicking in as the heavier precipitation kicks in and the energy requiredto turn the snow falling from up above ( remember think 850 temps) is not sufficient to turn the rain back to snow or sleet for some of us particularly with elevation ( not a lot required) could mean a significant spell of snow. I for one think this has been a cracking spell of wintry weather. We had our first fall of snow two weeks tomorrow am ( 12.01) around 7.30 and we have had 3 significant snow falls since then , negligable melt and 6- 8 '' of lying snow generally together with a number of minor snow falls and flurry's from synoptics that ( as TEITS as alluded too) have been far from spectacular. Just shows what can be achieved when the atlantic remains active but the jet runs south of the UK - I did say this before the spell kicked off - the atlantic can be our friend in certain situations - far enough north to stay in the cold air, far enough south to benefit from the low pressures and precipitation. I know that the current cold is coming to an end but I remain confident that we will shortly be enjoying more cold and wintry weather. I have given up on the greenland high but I much prefer high pressure to the north east any way for this area. February can be a great month for us but I woild like it to kick in by the 10th at the latest so that we can really its effect. Cheers all - stay positive - plenty more to enjoy I would say ! and good luck to our LTFC friends going to Norwich tomorrow - you will enjoy your day tomorrow far more than I will as a FFC fan at MUFC and that is in no way being disingenouts to out friends in Norwich !

Evaporate cooling ??

Fully agree with your points and this is far froma done deal. There is one major difference now compared with this time last week and thats the raw UKMO output. This time last week it was leading the way with the undercutting low pressure through the English channel. GFS and ECM were firmly in the breakdown to westerly camp and the met office fax significantly modified the UKMO raw IIRC. Over the last couple of days we have seen UKMO raw lead the way again on this breakdown at a time when GFS and ECM have been fluctuating all over the place. In my view we need to see positive changes and quickly with UKMO leading the way if this is not going to happen. I do understand a lot of peoples concerns over where we might end up if the breakdown comes as progged but, as others have stated, some short term pain might well lead to a memorable February ( from say seconfd week onwards) if the blocking set up is right. Lets hope so... In the meantime I am now into my 13th hour of non stop snow within my third major snow event of the last seven days.. Not bad eh ?!

Still moderate snow here on Dunstable Downs. Precipitation at its heaviest so far today within the last half hour. Much better than I was expecting. Went out for a long walk with the wife this afternoon. She took her Nordic Walking sticks ( she hates it when I refer to them as sticks) she normally gets sarcastic comments along the lines of 'expecting snow love' ....today made a nice change for her !

Hopefully the swathe of low pressure will be to the NE and high pressure will fill in the gap left by the vortex over greenland/eastern canada. Lets hope that is what happens and such a set up is not too far west. If that is the case we will finally get our -NAO but a west based one which is unlikely to be good. That said , still lots to be positive about. Lets try and enjoy what we have had and what is to come over the next few days. Do try and cheer up, gievn your current state of mind people would think you are spending too much time thinking about the scottish football and rugby teams !

No expert -far from it but that 240 chart looks like the vortex is on the move from Canada to Siberia. With heights already evident across the pole perhaps we would start to see height rises in the greenland area in the following days. Just hope it doesnt set up too far west. If I have interpreded correctly this does fall in line with what more learned members have been suggesting. Thats about it for positives on the later part of the ECM Im afraid.

moderate snow here in Dunstable now but flakes very small ( wash powder variety). Has deposited a further cm so far. Good luck to everybody today. Snow fall Looks set in for much of day light hours.

I think you will do reasonably well tomorrow - I certainly hope you do.

Great post ! I lived just outside Folkestone from late 1975 - 1983 and enjoyed some truly memorable snow events. The new year event of 1978-79 will never be forgotten but there were several others and with a number of them we did very very well when many other parts of the country did not. I do miss living in that part of the world but at least being 600ft up in the eastern chilterns gives me half a chance of receiving significant snow events. Good luck for tomorrow to you and all others in the South East who have largely missed out so far . My son is at University in Canterbury and is struggling to understand the fuss about the snow so I fully appreciate how dissapointing its been so far for some of you.

teve Steve - I thoroughly enjoy your posts and respect your knowledge and enthusiasm but I think you are missing the point here. I have to agree with NS that without the initial reaction to the SSW and the reverse of westerlies we would not now be enjoying this cold, and for many snowy spell of weather. If you feel that this is not the case please say so and explain how we have got to where we are now ( and have been for the last week - first snow in Dunstable last Saturday am) given where we were over the Christmas and new year. I think the other thing to consider is that this cold spell has not yet finished and there is much to happen this week. Perhaps the best thing might be for all parties to apologise, move on and undertake an analysis of actual conditions across the UK from 12.01.2013 - 28.02.2013 once we get into March. By then we will know not only the outcome of the initial reaction to the SSW but also the effects of the downswelling , Cheers

Hats off to you for going up to the replay last night. Very pleased to see Richardson score such a crucial goal. Hopefully he can start producing on a regular basis. Agree with your assesment of the Hammersmith End. As somebody who used to stand near to the green pole (sadly no longer in situ) you see a wide variety of life.On the subject of pies - The ones at Norwich are excellent. soyry mods off topic I know. I will depart back to my own thread now !

Afraid not - got family stuff on but I will be keeping a cloe eye on it. Cant see us getting anything there though. Dont get to many games these days due to other commitments but been going regularly for over 40 years. I wouldnt be surprised if the Man City game on Saturday is one of very few matches to go ahead.Cheers

As a fulham fan myself I know that feling all too well !

Sorry ! meant to say eastward extent of atlantic systems ! Thats what model fatgue and a couple of glasses of red do to you !!

Fully agree with both TIETS & BFTP. The 18z is showing great opportunities for extention of the cold and potentially further significant snow. The split in the vortex from East of Greenland through to Scandi as others have said is having a significant affect on the westward extent of these antlantic systems. These really are exciting times for those of us who love the cold and snow so lets try and enjoy. I wouldnt be surprised to see model output increasingly going with the undercutting scenario and areas further south and west benefitting as a result. If that happens BFTP's 16-22 prediction several weeks back will look pretty impressive.Cheers

Another fascinating day with the models. Spent some time catching up after a busy day at work. I have felt very positive about a sustained spell of cold and snow and I normally view these things with a glass half full perspective. I do however get very nervous when I see the upstream pattern being shown by the GFS Op flattening the pattern. We see it time after time and it drives me bl..y mad. I do feel a little better having seen the ECM op and ensembles but my nagging doubts remain. I have this lovely vision of Dunstable Downs being covered in deep snow this time next week with snow piled up several feet high from road clearance in the culdisac outside whilst snow continues to fall and the prospect for yet more snow and top of cold looms after a second channel low has run through dumping a further 8 inches . If however the pattern gets scuppered by upstream developments ala GFS we will be back to mild depressing muck, a quick thaw and further hardwork required notwithstanding the SSW effects to get back to the cold and (for some) snow being enjoyed this weekend. Its been hard enough getting to the point we are at now. It would be a real shame if we got knocked back again next week when the upside could be so good. Thats why I have this horrible feeling in my gut tonight even though my head is telling me it will be fine. Cheers

What an evening of model watching!! I do feel as though its been coming to be honest. Lets enjoy it while it lasts as these moments dont come along very often. Hats off to IB for coming on and facing up. Lets hope it proves to be as special on the ground as these charts are suggesting. Highly unlikely I know but we can dream ! Enjoy......

I read this and just had to laugh ! Still I suppose its much easier to laugh when we have just witnessed a run like that. That run certainly demonstrates how energy from the atlantic can really be our friend if the orientation and strenght of the cold block to the North and East is right as BA referenced earlier. Sat here 600 ft up in the Chilterns I would definately be snowed in for days if not longer. That all said we have had yet another day of model rollercoaster and fluctuating mood swings. I am seeking solace in JH's upper air anomoly charts which continue to show a very encouraging position and trying not to get too worked up by those bl..dy shortwaves notwithstanding the fact that one got us out of a potential hole on this latest run.Keep up the great work everyone. I feel we are in for a very special few weeks of model watching and hopefully enjoying what the actual weather brings us. I think the autopsy on the winter of 2012/13 ( when it finally dies away in early May !) will be a fascinating read. Cheers

Thanks John, Much appreciate the response. Perhaps the next time you see such an example in the model it would be great if you could highlight the potential as the less initiated of us ( me included) can at least see what could potentially happen. I know that you hold a lot of store by this model and I fully understand the reasons why. An additional element in your analysis ( as if you dont contribute enough !) regarding the potential for shortwave development be it negative or positive for cold would be great in my view. Thanks again

I clicked on the link and the internet froze - now I can see why !On a seperate matter I was going to ask JH for his views on the shortwave/upper air pattern debate but see that he has beaten me too it. Whilst JH answer gives the technical response I think the question was about whether or not the modelling at that level would pick up the shortwaves. I would suggest that our recent experience suggests not ! but apologies of I have got this horribly wrong !

Perhaps a little progressive but if we are there by next Wednesday we would be unlucky not to be in the freezer by the following Sunday. I do think developments will move quite quickly to cold once the mods get a final grip on the significant developments now taking place in the strat and MJO. Lets hope so as I am not sure I can cope with another early Decemner episode !