Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The UKMO is definitely not having any of the cold and wintryness on tonight's 12z.

I find it very very difficult to believe the GFS when neither the UKMO or the ECM agree with the GFS solution.

I hope you're right. I'll take the slower evolution thank you very much. The GFS can do one as far as I'm concerned

Any slower and it might just arrive in time for Christmas

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM backs GFS on the initial building of heights towards Greenland

T144

I really don't know which way to call this. One or more models have got this massively wrong even at T60. Simple as.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM Backs GFS on the initial building of heights towards Greenland

T144

The issue with this evolution is that it cannot be sustained due to that Azores high sticking its oar in!

[Yarmy]

UKMO and GFS are completely different at t120

GFS

UKMO

Which will be right? my money is on UKMO

Uncertain for the UK; utterly bewildering for Denmark.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Any slower and it might just arrive in time for Christmas

I'd rather have no cold at all than watch it all flood across France and Spain ala GFS. Sinking HP does nowt for me I'm afraid.

[Derecho]

UKMO is poor and wouldn't deliver any noteworthy cold. GFS is so close to something so great but the Azores high ridges across... the only way this can not get in the way is if it ridges behind that little disturbance to the South of Greenland and we send more energy south. Which way will the ECM go? Big differences at such a short range!

[Captain Shortwave]

The issue with this evolution is that it cannot be sustained due to that Azores high sticking its oar in!

Yep we have GFS/GEM showing a two (approx) day toppler and UKMO saying cold doesn't even exist.

No idea what ECM will show, probably the start of a 2 week big freeze probably

Someone usher Shanon out of the building. It's not good for our nerves.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

The UKMO is taking so long to disrupt that troughing with not enough energy going se. It might get there eventually but its really dragging this out.

Given the UKMO update earlier in terms of timing of cold they're obviously not buying their operational runs because I don't see how these raw outputs can deliver what they suggest in the that timeframe.

The GFS isn't as good as its earlier run because it slackens the flow, still some snow and cold temperatures compared to the UKMO which isn't going to sink the block but still hasn't brought the cold in at 144hrs.

I'd still rather take my chance with the GFS because at least the cold is there waiting to move west and it just needs a few small tweeks to be a lot better, the UKMO could have us here till Easter waiting for it to disrupt that troughing.

Either way one model is going to look very silly tomorrow.

[Derecho]

UKMO is poor and wouldn't deliver any noteworthy cold. GFS is so close to something so great but the Azores high ridges across... the only way this can not get in the way is if it ridges behind that little disturbance to the South of Greenland and we send more energy south earlier in the run. Which way will the ECM go? Big differences at such a short range!

If GFS is correct I wouldn't write off the potential of this cold spell as it all depends on where that blasted ridge in the Azores links up but it is a potential major hinderance.

[CWT2012]

Think we can bin the UKMO

GFS has been consistent throughout in its forecasting of this potential snap but UKMO have been flip flopping and dithering

GFS it is

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Think we can bin the UKMO

GFS has been consistent throughout in its forecasting of this potential snap but UKMO have been flip flopping and dithering

GFS it is

I would say that the UKMO has been just as consistent at not showing any cold just as much as the GFS has been consistent at showing cold.

[Man With Beard]

Just above freezing at T144

But feeling quite pleasant by T240

[NickR]

Think we can bin the UKMO

GFS has been consistent throughout in its forecasting of this potential snap but UKMO have been flip flopping and dithering

GFS it is

LOL - half your posts suggest "binning" runs. Either that or calling on COBRA to meet!

As others have said, no reason to "bin" anything - several options are on the table and UKMO has never bought the extreme cold of other models, so it has hardly flipped that much.

Edited March 5, 2013 by NickR

[Mucka]

GFS certainly downgrading the cold today and introducing a toppler scenario, a couple of cold days in the middle of a few cool days if that verifies and much decreased snow chances.

On the plus side the output is all over the place in the mid term across the models so anything could happen but trending the wrong way on GFS today for snow fans and MetO ain't great either.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

I'm not so sure Karl we have really noticed it this year but in fact it’s not a new phenomena, I think it’s an error in the model.

Well the law of averages says it will sometime. As for the Gfs 12z, it's nothing like the latest meto update and the gfs has a blink or miss it cold snap followed by a milder trend, the gfs 12z is similar but worse than the 6z with that same toppling high followed by a flatter pattern.

[LomondSnowstorm]

There were very few solutions in the GFS ensembles that looked anything like the UKMO, and certainly the ECM operational and GFS, while differing from each other significantly, both disrupted the trough much quicker than the UKMO manages. For the moment I'd say some kind of compromise between the ultra-quick GFS and glacial in pace UKMO looks likely, which luckily for us would be better in the longer term than either of those two solutions for cold, but that's bound to change in the coming days.

[SomeLikeItHot]

it is a shame we can't see how the UKMO fits in the MOGREPS suite. The UKMO modifications to it so far suggest that it doesn't sit very well within the set, but that of course could change. The ECM still had quite a cluster (albeit a minority) going for less and/or delayed cold. As I said in an earlier post I find the GEFs strange in that it didn't see any alternatives when the other models could.

Be interested to see if the GFS finds any less cold or delayed solutions on this run.

Edited March 5, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Purga]

A brief wintry toppler then from GFS 12z followed by a dreadful mild highjack in FI

UKMO is a shocker to:

Oh dear... Let's hope ECM brings more cheer!

Edited March 5, 2013 by Purga

[AWD]

A brief wintry toppler then from GFS 12z followed by a dreadful mild highjack in FI

Oh dear... Let's hope ECM brings more cheer!

If that high was a smidgen further SE we could be looking at some decent convection and maybe the first spring storms of the season.

Anyway, all irrelevant at that timescale but that would certainly be interesting for other sorts of weather aside from cold.

[Frosty.]

It just shows that even though the metoffice have produced a stonking update this afternoon between days 6-15, the 12z op runs are not backing that update up whatsoever, so something is wrong somewhere. This morning's Ecm 00z was stellar with a sustained arctic outbreak but it's anyones guess what the 12z will show @ T+240 in 2 hours from now, boom or bust?

[Tim Bland]

What looked like a historic march cold spell is quickly being watered down into a brief toppler. If the ECM backs down as well its game over IMO. Typical of this winter ...so near but so far

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

A brief wintry toppler then from GFS 12z followed by a dreadful mild highjack in FI

UKMO is a shocker to:

Oh dear... Let's hope ECM brings more cheer!

It's hardly a hijack. It would be late March if this were to verify and it is Spring now after all.

[mushymanrob]

A brief wintry toppler then from GFS 12z followed by a dreadful mild highjack in FI

UKMO is a shocker to:

Oh dear... Let's hope ECM brings more cheer!

what do you expect? its march!

the gfs's short sharp suggested cold snap is about as 'good' as it can get for cold, (snowy cold anyway). i cannot recall any significant snowfall in march, onwards, that wasnt a breif spell. looking for or expecting a lengthy snow/freeze now has the odds heavily stacked against you. of course raw, grey, cold days are easier to come by, but i suspect that that nothingness isnt what people would like.

slight though the chances are of the ukmo nailing it, it is still a possible solution, and would be foolish to ignore it.

[MR EXTREMES]

im very intrigued by the ukmo charts they seem rather out on its own gfs and ecm still bring something exciting.

still more time needed i think.

[mushymanrob]

What looked like a historic march cold spell is quickly being watered down into a brief toppler. If the ECM backs down as well its game over IMO. Typical of this winter ...so near but so far

...but it was always in fi, and still is, as the three major models cannot agree on its evolution.