Spring Model Discussion 18Z 6/3/13 onwards....

[Summer Sun]

Little change so far from GFS

[-uksnow-]

UKMO got very little PPN over us by mon lunchtime

Edited March 9, 2013 by -eded-

[-uksnow-]

Did Mr Murr not say to watch out for a Scandi surface high developing within 144-168? Ooooh what we got here at 144!

Also where is everyone!? :o

Edited March 9, 2013 by -eded-

[nick sussex]

UKMO got very little PPN over us by mon lunchtime

Theres still a chance after that point as the trend is an arc of precip extending up from France but its really on a knife edge.

On current trends the low is being modelled a little further south which leaves no margin for error, we've seen this many times before with these lows.

I think we need to see some more deepening of that low to add more ne momentum,certainly there needs to be a northwards correction ASAP.

[shaky]

Did Mr Murr not say to watch out for a Scandi surface high developing within 144-168? Ooooh what we got here at 144!

Also where is everyone!? :o

You wont believe it i was going to say the same thing mate!!this place is absolutely dead out!!where has everyone gone?

[Snowman.]

You wont believe it i was going to say the same thing mate!!this place is absolutely dead out!!where has everyone gone?

I have no idea?

People are still worrying about the NAE. When the radar is your best friend.

I'm wondering what could make this chart better?

Edited March 9, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[shaky]

I have no idea?

People are still worrying about the NAE. When the radar is your best friend.

You are on the ball snowm4n!its defo a radar watching couple of days now!!if you look at the ukmo it looks like there might be a band of snow coming down from the north east into the heart of england between 72-96 hours!!uppers still -8 to -10 around that time aswell!!

[ukpaul]

I have no idea?

People are still worrying about the NAE. When the radar is your best friend.

It's Saturday afternoon, people with a life are probably out doing something interesting.

On subject, the difference between different models already out is not so large apart from the NAE, that really is out on its own it appears.

[Snowman.]

Hmmm heights build NE!

Look above Scandi and you can see it building.

Also Mr murr wont be posting until he can say Heavy Snow.

Edited March 9, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[shaky]

Hmmm heights build NE!

Look above Scandi and you can see it building.

Also Mr murr wont be posting until he can say Heavy Snow.

You can just tell he itching to post something though!!his fingers are at the ready!!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

High pressure over the country, warm and dry.

A cold north easterly just before the start of winter.

[nick sussex]

I have no idea?

People are still worrying about the NAE. When the radar is your best friend.

I'm wondering what could make this chart better?

The high over Scandi about 1000 miles further north! its not great because the western negative NAO is determined to stick troughing to the nw of the UK.

Overall the medium term output looks like ending cold hopes unless that troughing is much further west and south with the Scandi high taking charge .

Theres little chance of troughing getting far enough east and south to get the UK on the cold side of that so unless the Scandi high manages to show its hand then to be honest I think its likely to turn milder.

It would be very unusual to see the UK remain cold with that western based negative NAO so its by far a big longshot.

[Snowman.]

High pressure over the country, warm and dry.

A cold north easterly just before the start of winter.

Bank both

The high over Scandi about 1000 miles further north! its not great because the western negative NAO is determined to stick troughing to the nw of the UK.

Overall the medium term output looks like ending cold hopes unless that troughing is much further west and south with the Scandi high taking charge .

Theres little chance of troughing getting far enough east and south to get the UK on the cold side of that so unless the Scandi high manages to show its hand then to be honest I think its likely to turn milder.

It would be very unusual to see the UK remain cold with that western based negative NAO so its by far a big longshot.

Yup that why I said i struggled to look for a way to make it better.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The high over Scandi about 1000 miles further north! its not great because the western negative NAO is determined to stick troughing to the nw of the UK.

Overall the medium term output looks like ending cold hopes unless that troughing is much further west and south with the Scandi high taking charge .

Theres little chance of troughing getting far enough east and south to get the UK on the cold side of that so unless the Scandi high manages to show its hand then to be honest I think its likely to turn milder.

It would be very unusual to see the UK remain cold with that western based negative NAO so its by far a big longshot.

Yep that high which is too far south was a common theme on the 12z ensembles yesterday. Needs to be much further north for cold to sustain. GFS seems out on its own at 144 though (with the extent of the continental) surface high with UKMO and GEM showing similar thoughts of a weaker, less pronounced high...

[be cause]

Bank both

Yup that why I said i struggled to look for a way to make it better.

amazing . a forecast for November 2013 already .. whats the summer like ??

[Snowman.]

Just for gav

[Summer Sun]

FI is looking good tonight

Thats more like it!

Bank!

Edited March 9, 2013 by Gavin.

[-uksnow-]

Quite a variation in the positioning of the low at just T 60 on the GEFS - ptb 12 would do me nicely, but a worrying number cause the ppn to just scrape the south coast or even miss it all together!

[stratty]

FI is looking good tonight

Thats more like it!

Bank!

It's funny how mother nature has a habit of balancing things out.....don't be too surprised to see this kind of thing after our bitter week

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's funny how mother nature has a habit of balancing things out.....don't be too surprised to see this kind of thing after our bitter week

Aye without wanting to sound too controversial, I'd take a warm late March and April if we were to get a cool summer

[Summer Sun]

It's funny how mother nature has a habit of balancing things out.....don't be too surprised to see this kind of thing after our bitter week

Thats only to be expected really March can be a month of extremes and this is shaping up to be that, Spring at the start, winter for a time next week then spring to end its more than possible the ensembles will be interesting to see if it has any support fingers crossed it does

[Frosty.]

FI is looking good tonight

Thats more like it!

Bank!

No it looks like a cloudy high, pass

[SnowObsessor90]

Thats only to be expected really March can be a month of extremes and this is shaping up to be that, Spring at the start, winter for a time next week then spring to end its more than possible the ensembles will be interesting to see if it has any support fingers crossed it does

I wouldn't get too excited, a repeat of April 2012 looks imminent based on that very last chart lol

[Milhouse]

No it looks like a cloudy high, pass

Cloudy or not, its still a pleasantly warm one. And its not looking that cloudy either until the far reaches of FI.

[Milhouse]

UKMO has winds switching round to a southwesterly by Friday so, although still cold with cold upper air over the UK at first, indicates something milder to come.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Milhouse