Spring Model Discussion 18Z 6/3/13 onwards....

[cooling climate]

Although I can not grumble with what we have seen here in Herts this winter compared to

other regions with regard to laying and falling snow it is a shame ( there is still an outside

chance) that given the projected uppers over the next 72 they would support an all snow

event even if the low were to travel signifcantly further north along the channel introducing

the heavier snow and snowfall totals.

Looking at the figures that Ian F has recently posted I would take my chances with

convective snowfall although as we all know nothing is set in stone yet.

Looking further ahead and I would not jump the gun with a return to much milder weather

just yet as I would not be surprised to see a big flip towards cold from t168-192 onwards.

[chionomaniac]

New thread coming soon, please finish up in here.

[nick sussex]

maybe its more to do with this nick - the ecm ens mean has been keen to drop the trough across the uk in fi and on both the 00z and 12z its a direct hit. whilst a snow fest in dec/jan/feb, it will not be so in march. i think the 12z op is too progressive with the souwester and that the warmer uppers will pass to our se as the low heights drop in. staying cold but not quite cold enough for settling snow away from the higher ground and scotland/north england.

Yes I looked at the mean and that eventually edges the trough across, so yes it might turn a bit colder again but the UKMO omitted the milder interlude in their update, reading that one would have thought it was just cold all the way till the following week.

To be honest I'd rather drier pleasant weather than cold rain but a chance that the mountains of Scotland might do okay.

[fergieweather]

maybe its more to do with this nick - the ecm ens mean has been keen to drop the trough across the uk in fi and on both the 00z and 12z its a direct hit. whilst a snow fest in dec/jan/feb, it will not be so in march. i think the 12z op is too progressive with the souwester and that the warmer uppers will pass to our se as the low heights drop in. staying cold but not quite cold enough for settling snow away from the higher ground and scotland/north england.

The UKMO update briefing last issued (1100z, based on 00z output) says (of 10-15d period) "...there then remains signs of a less cold W/SW influence returning as Atlantic fronts make incursions...". Next update due later tonight.

[Methuselah]

Although I can not grumble with what we have seen here in Herts this winter compared to

other regions with regard to laying and falling snow it is a shame ( there is still an outside

chance) that given the projected uppers over the next 72 they would support an all snow

event even if the low were to travel signifcantly further north along the channel introducing

the heavier snow and snowfall totals.

Looking at the figures that Ian F has recently posted I would to take my chances with

convective snowfall although as we all know nothing is set in stone yet.

Looking further ahead and I would not jump the gun with a return to much milder weather

just yet as I would not be surprised to see a big flip towards cold from t168-192 onwards.

I'm enjoying today's snow, CC; I'm also counting-down-the-days until the first big thunderstorm!

The UKMO update briefing last issued (1100z, based on 00z output) says (of 10-15d period) "...there then remains signs of a less cold W/SW influence returning as Atlantic fronts make incursions...". Next update due later tonight.

Thanks Ian...

[Frosty.]

But what if the GFS is not 'onto something'?

But what if the GFS is on something maybe it's taking medication to correct it's eastward bias, it seems to be a flaw which is built into this model though so perhaps medication won't work, a factory reset then?

[chionomaniac]

New thread here, closing this now.