South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->

[mbrothers]

A GORGEOUS Day in Falmouth today. Just been involved in the Falmouth Spring Clean. The sun is shining, its warm and a little light breeze. People are happy and the high street is buzzing. Brilliant day.

lovely here in newquay too. looks like our chance of snow has been sunk too. Edited March 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather
removed potentially offensive (?) remark. If said in jest, please use appropriate emoticons.

[Costa Del Fal]

?

Erm well there were showers this morning and some have recently left east Cornwall as i hinted would be the focus of activity for cornwall. There have been less than expected though.

Edited March 9, 2013 by gottolovethisweather
whilst I thought the original comment was unnecessary, I have part deleted your reply to save any further backlash. Please reply by PM or use the report button where at all possible. Consequently, removed original comment.

[-uksnow-]

Could it be badly out at this range? Or are we clutching straws now?

Not clutching straws at all - it will change right up to the actual event, NAE has been out done by GFS ppn charts in the past, i say wait till fergie tells us MO's view on it later

[Hurricane Buckley]

NAE is a shocker, lets hope the GFS brings us some hope. Kinda feel this will even put the final nail in the coffin or bring us hope..

[Nights King]

NAE is a shocker, lets hope the GFS brings us some hope. Kinda feel this will even put the final nail in the coffin or bring us hope..

I can just see smartie sitting there with his 95% southwards corection thinking I told you so..

[Blizzardof82]

Ref your point about ground temperatures I asked the following in the gardening thread but nobody has responded, can you help or anyone else on here help?

"Anyone know who best to ask about ground frost penetration? Is it down to how low the temperatures get or is it down to constantly low temperatures over a period of time?

Just thinking about my tiddies! (spuds)"

Put a layer of straw or leaves over them or horticulture fleece if you have it

Current temp 8.2c, dew point 6.4c, humidity 88%, wind East and pressure 1002.

[-uksnow-]

Currently temp 12.4, DP 8.1, Humidity 69%, Pressure 997.9, Wind East

[Frosty_wsm]

I can just see smartie sitting there with his 95% southwards corection thinking I told you so..

You called lol

[Costa Del Fal]

Weather watch has been updated to remove all of South Cornwall from the watch, leaving just the Channel Islands included. http://cornwallweather.moonfruit.com/#/warnings/4573724904

[Mapantz]

We all know what the NAE is like .. in fact, it turned out to be completely wrong about yesterday's heavy rainfall, (regarding certain areas) and it was less than 24hrs out.

[Hurricane Buckley]

Weather watch has been updated to remove all of South Cornwall from the watch, leaving just the Channel Islands included. http://cornwallweath...ings/4573724904

I would say thats jumping the gun a bit, reacting to one run?

[Hurricane Buckley]

GFS seems better to me already...

[Staffordshire]

GFS looks like an upgrade from what i can see so far for you guys on the S coast.. things further north.

[Neilsouth]

We all know what the NAE is like .. in fact, it turned out to be completely wrong about yesterday's heavy rainfall, (regarding certain areas) and it was less than 24hrs out.

Truth, it's a pretty awful perfoming model

[AWD]

Latest GFS run wants to give us all a headache, showing more in the way of snowfall for parts of the region compared to the NAE;

Edited March 9, 2013 by AWD

[Costa Del Fal]

I would say thats jumping the gun a bit, reacting to one run?

Not one run, im factoring in other models like the GFS, NMM which are all shifting things south. Please read the warning below the map because I make it clear there will be some snow but not enough to warrant concern imo especially wrt settling snow.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Blizzards

[SunnySouthCoast]

I have a feeling that this is going to turn into a non event for us on the south coast - once again. We should know from how rare snow is down here & how many times in the past we have been near yet so far. If we do get some great, if not them I'm really not expecting any anyway. I would much rather just look forward to warmth & sunshine now as this winter has yet again failed to deliver for us coasties

[Mapantz]

Truth, it's a pretty awful perfoming model

I agree, sometimes it's terrible! I prefer the HIRLAM to the NAE but i cannot find working charts for it anymore as i used to look on lightningwizard.

This was what the NAE was projecting on Thursday (for yesterday)

Rain lasting right into the evening time.. truth is, it was much further East, only 4mm fell here, it stopped at around 1pm and it brightened up.

I wouldn't worry too much about the NAE.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Mapantz

[Nights King]

Latest GFS run wants to give us all a headache, showing more in the way of snowfall for parts of the region compared to the NAE;

There we have it the GFS has given us all a straw to clutch! I was woried that gfs would back latest NAE but as it stands NAE could well be a one off glitched run...

[AWD]

I agree, sometimes it's terrible! I prefer the HIRLAM to the NAE but i cannot find working charts for it anymore as i used to look on lightningwizard.

This site contains some HIRLAM PPN charts;

http://www.aemet.es/en/eltiempo/prediccion/modelosnumericos/hirlam?opc2=sup&opc3=pr

[Hurricane Buckley]

I still think the SW will see some nice snowfall, whether it sticks or causes problems is another thing, but thank god the GFS has put the nails away for now..

[AWD]

UKMO has it further south than the GFS, just about hugging the extreme south coast and Cornwall;

GFS has some appreciable accumulations over Devon and Dorset by Monday lunchtime;

On its own currently though unfortunetly.

[Nights King]

UKMO has it further south than the GFS, just about hugging the extreme south coast and Cornwall;

That is still very close though and if you take a margin of error of say 20 - 50 miles it could easily be a substantial south west event, so close and I wouldnt like to be the one to draw the boundarys on a forecast...

[AWD]

Both the GFS and UKMO showing an ice day for some of us on Monday however;

That is still very close though and if you take a margin of error of say 20 - 50 miles it could easily be a substantial south west event, so close and I wouldnt like to be the one to draw the boundarys on a forecast...

Have you been on the happy pills? Its not like you to be so positive?

[AWD]

GFS high res charts showing what I think is the best case scenario, and currently the outside chance for us Sunday night into Monday morning currently;