South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->

[AWD]

Latest Met Office forecast for the South West isn't without interest still;

Today;

"Rain, heavy in places, will spread east across western parts through the day. By the afternoon, sleet or snow is likely across higher ground, particularly towards the east. Turning colder, accentuated by the strong wind. Maximum temperature 7 °C."

Tonight;

"Rain will readily turn to snow and will fall across many southern areas overnight, giving some accumulations. Drier elsewhere but with isolated snow showers. Bitterly cold with frost and ice. Minimum temperature -3 °C."

Tomorrow;

"Snow will continue to fall across southern parts giving further accumulations before easing by the afternoon. Drier and brighter elsewhere but bitterly cold with a strong to gale force wind. Maximum temperature 3 °C."

Midweek;

"Largely dry and bright with only isolated snow showers. Staying very cold with overnight frost and ice. Slightly less cold by Thursday with rain or snow showers in places."

Can't grumble at that too much, especially considering the latest output.

[Beast of Plympton]

To hungover to post in more detail so here are the snapshots of the various model runs today;

GFS shows snowfall over the SW and south coast Sunday night into Monday;

The UKMO shows some snowfall along the far south coast and Channel Islands;

The NAE shows similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast. Notice the dark purples in north France, that's the real heavy snow that looks like missing us now. Could have been truly something if that hit us;

The GEM similiar to the GFS in that it pushes it that bit further north;

The ECM has it similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast, although perhaps something a little heavier nudging into the extreme south coast;

So overall nothing much as really changed from my post yesterday. The American models more bullish than the Euro's over how far north the system gets. As per yesterday however, you have to favour the Euro's currently with their higher resolution, so only the far south looks like seeing snowfall still currently, something more notable perhaps for the Channel Islands.

I agree with Ian and the poster above, as things stand I give it a 80% - 90% chance of this being a non event, with a 10% - 20% chance of it changing and becoming an event for us.

I like how you consider that post "not much detail!!"

Great post AWD, as always!! Met office have 24 hours of snow over today and tomorrow here. Do you reckon that is right??

The cold air has definitely set in. Currently 1.3c out there.

[liam300]

Met office have now ruled out snow for south central?? Big call maybe

[AWD]

I like how you consider that post "not much detail!!"

Great post AWD, as always!! Met office have 24 hours of snow over today and tomorrow here. Do you reckon that is right??

The cold air has definitely set in. Currently 1.3c out there.

You are in a good location. In the SW and on the South coast of the SW if that makes sense.

I think 24 hours is pushing it, but if anyone is going to see snow, it will be you,

[Beast of Plympton]

You are in a good location. In the SW and on the South coast of the SW if that makes sense.

I think 24 hours is pushing it, but if anyone is going to see snow, it will be you,

Thanks for the reply, I will be sure to keep you updated with some nowcasting!! Anadin, a pint of water and a banana works for me by the way

[AWD]

Met office have now ruled out snow for south central?? Big call maybe

I've posted the latest Met Office regional forecast above mate. Make of it what you will.

[Brad]

Hmmm not confident at all, Met O showing nothing at all for south Central. I fear another disappointment to end another very poor Winter. I stand to be corrected though

Edited March 10, 2013 by Brad

[That ECM]

Met office have now ruled out snow for south central?? Big call maybe

Going by the latest output, you would have to agree. Another near miss I feel. Hey Ho that's the south for you. Channel lows are great when they hit but they are very frustrating as well. To far north and we get cold rain. To far south and we get no PPN. When you consider that we are talking about 50 miles or so in terms of track, then looking for detail beyond t24 is fraught with danger. 2009 dec will long live in the memory with meto having us right in the middle of a warning area only for the snow to make a semi circle around us and places like Basingstoke get plastered. If only the same thing could happen again!!

[karlos1983]

Going to be an interesting radar watch tonight, unless the 12z has another south push. But my meeting tomorrow morning is looking unlikely to be cancelled due to snow :-( ah well!

[karlos1983]

Going by the latest output, you would have to agree. Another near miss I feel. Hey Ho that's the south for you. Channel lows are great when they hit but they are very frustrating as well. To far north and we get cold rain. To far south and we get no PPN. When you consider that we are talking about 50 miles or so in terms of track, then looking for detail beyond t24 is fraught with danger. 2009 dec will long live in the memory with meto having us right in the middle of a warning area only for the snow to make a semi circle around us and places like Basingstoke get plastered. If only the same thing could happen again!!

I remember that we'll, that had to be the most depressing night ever!! Everywhere around us got smashed, not a flake fell in east Dorset ! That's why I'd really love this low to shift north 50-100 miles, be game on then!

[Dunlop Dave]

White out in the Channel Islands !!! Come on !!

[BARRY]

Thanks for the reply, I will be sure to keep you updated with some nowcasting!! Anadin, a pint of water and a banana works for me by the way

should be getting sleety up there now as the temperature is falling here now 3.4c

[karlos1983]

That band of PPN over the south west is expanding quite quickly, was this predicted? Could come into play surely when the cold gets in?

[Beast of Plympton]

should be getting sleety up there now as the temperature is falling here now 3.4c

Getting colder here as well, its 0.6c now.... no sleet yet, shouldn't be long though looking at the PPN on the radar.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[AWD]

Getting colder here as well, its 0.6c now.... no sleet yet, shouldn't be long the looking at the PPN on the radar.

What's your Dewpoint?

[Beast of Plympton]

What's your Dewpoint?

I am ashamed to say I don't know because my weather station doesn't have that!! However, if I look at the weatherstation online based in Postbridge which is a couple of miles down the road, albeit 100m lower down, the temp on that is 1.3c and the dewpoint is 1.3c. So, a wooley estimate would be a dewpoint of 0.6c.

I am going to invest in a better weather station this year, I promise!!

[Coast]

Time for you guys to dig your wellies and snow shovels out for tonight?

Temps:

Dew points:

[Beast of Plympton]

Time for you guys to dig your wellies and snow shovels out for tonight?

Temps:

Dew points:

My word, looks intense!!

[liam300]

Time for you guys to dig your wellies and snow shovels out for tonight?

Temps:

Dew points:

Don't get our hopes up

[philglossop]

I was meant to be working outside tomorrow on a work project. Normally I'm very pessimistic with regards to snow here in Plymouth, but given this project will save my employers thousands, I'm going into work today just in case it does come overnight.

It's looking very likely now for us.

[caz100]

well im tiny bit confused, some say we arnt getting any and then there are pics saying we are.... so in easy talk not weather , whats happening lol..... thanks

[Coast]

Don't get our hopes up

I think it's gone to a different level of probability now (quite high) so you can all be excused a little ramp!!!

[divadee]

well im tiny bit confused, some say we arnt getting any and then there are pics saying we are.... so in easy talk not weather , whats happening lol..... thanks

I am very confused as well! I don't think we will get anything tonight or tomorrow at this rate but who knows. It's giving me a headache that's for sure lol.

[philglossop]

It's actually rather nice to be more optimistic, rather then seeing it miss us and hit Bristol/Somerset.

How many times has it missed us over the years and gone north and east? Not this time. hopefully!!

Edited March 10, 2013 by philglossop

[Hurricane Buckley]

GFS brings it back and again the NAVGEM which has stuck with the snow throughout hasnt shifted and brings between 5-15cm widely across Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset, Sussex and Kent. Areas all to watch.