South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->

[katemart]

First post for a while, although I have been reading the forum for the past couple of days.

Very hard to believe this is gonna happen: pressure and temps still rising In Soton, 4.7C, windchill about 2deg and dewpoint only -1.3C.

However I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a once in 50 years event and will be staying up late tonight watching the forum working and hope we shall all have some fun and games.

PS. Probably my major concern is the closure of the M27 to the north of Southampton. Traffic in both directions has been diverted through residential roads and of course this is already causing major hold-ups. I believe the motorway was due to re-open at about 05:30 on Monday morning. Now, knowing nothing about tarmac I can't say for sure whether 6in snow, gusts of 40mph and windchill of -12 may hold up the works or not, but my personal recommendation is for people to stay in bed tomorrow morning

Live updates are available here: http://www.dailyecho...E__M27_closure/

Edited March 10, 2013 by katemart

[DanDorsetUK]

Here is a link reminder for those uf us near Poole, This link gives you Live dew points and temps etc! Its very good for nowcasting! http://www.pooleharbourweather.com/weather/

[katemart]

So what it the timescale for this to hit? Is it still midnight roughly onwards for here??

Chances of snow this evening had disappeared earlier but now they've been brought forward to hit Soton by 9pm. Keeping an eye on it as will need to get daughter back to her gaff before it starts to get hairy.

[Hurricane Buckley]

NAVGEM has been a great chart, it hasnt moved from the snow outcome for the SW, now it seems the rest are playing catch up.

[Nights King]

Well that cold air is digging in just nice and with the wind I can feel it sucking that heat from the ground ready for our snow later I hope!

2.0c and a cracking -3.1c dew point

[cerneman]

Just Itsy Bitsy northerly track from that low and could be memorable March snow event for South West,,,,,,,,

[DanDorsetUK]

Still very high dew points in Poole 4.3 Hoping to see that start coming down soon!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well that cold air is digging in just nice and with the wind I can feel it sucking that heat from the ground ready for our snow later I hope!

2.0c and a cracking -3.1c dew point

Is it me is the ppn band now starting to move North .... Slowly as we go , but currently I can see the GFS 6z being bang on for 6pm tonight ...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

[smoggyjester]

this was from a bit earlier dont know if it is something to excited about ?

Tomasz Schafernaker â€@Schafernaker

@fergieweather @carlharlott latest computer model shifts snow slightly north. Could be further north still in reality. watching this space.

[karlos1983]

Still very high dew points in Poole 4.3 Hoping to see that start coming down soon!

I have found that weather station to be very inacuratw of late, I use the one at Bournemouth Airport now.

Or manpantz for example is showing 1.5C dp. Only down the road in wareham.

Edited March 10, 2013 by karlos1983

[Deep Channel low]

just been up on holden moor, snowy sleety mix coming down,nice to see. Hopefully bodes well for later

[divadee]

Still very high dew points in Poole 4.3 Hoping to see that start coming down soon!

I have found that weather station to be very inacuratw of late, I use the one at Bournemouth Airport now.

Or manpantz for example is showing 1.5C dp. Only down the road in wareham.

Dew point of 0.1 here so big differences in the area!

[AWD]

Is it me is the ppn band now starting to move North .... Slowly as we go , but currently I can see the GFS 6z being bang on for 6pm tonight ...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

That's a weakening occlusion ahead of the main depression;

This is forecast to petre out through this afternoon, although giving some sleet/snow to high ground, abd flurries further north before it does so;

Its the next main band of PPN that southern counties should be interested in, tied up in the northern flank of the depression;

Its that, that hopefully the 12z model output can show a shift north with.

Edited March 10, 2013 by AWD

[jessandjon]

The ground is drying nicely here

[Nights King]

Is it me is the ppn band now starting to move North .... Slowly as we go , but currently I can see the GFS 6z being bang on for 6pm tonight ...

http://www.metoffice...ather/uk/radar/

It looks like it is moving north east slowly lets just pray that it doesnt stall 10 miles south and reaches south wales bristol and gloucester areas...

[DanDorsetUK]

Springbourne is showing 1.1 Dew pont

[Mapantz]

If you want an idea what it will be like tomorrow, click Monday ..

http://www.wareham-weather.co.uk/yowindow.html

[snowmadchrisuk]

That's a weakening occlusion ahead of the main depression;

I know but the GFS does not weeken it , you can see on the 6z it has the occlusion over E of our region and still heavy .

[AWD]

I know but the GFS does not weeken it , you can see on the 6z it has the occlusion over E of our region and still heavy .

Lets hope the 06z GFS is right. Would be nice if it had more model support for they evolution though.

[DanDorsetUK]

If you want an idea what it will be like tomorrow, click Monday ..

http://www.wareham-w...k/yowindow.html

LOL thats great almost good a real thing!!

[-uksnow-]

DP Bang on 0

Temp 4.2

Windchill 0.8

[karlos1983]

If you want an idea what it will be like tomorrow, click Monday ..

http://www.wareham-weather.co.uk/yowindow.html

Really like that a lot

[gottolovethisweather]

Just to counter some of the concern (if there truly is any?) or overhyping of the potential in here, the forecast from the professionals is currently for a widespread small covering by morning of 2-4cm, I imagine that would not inconvenience travel whatsoever. A rare event yes, but it is pretty much forecast to be just a typical winter storm, at this stage. Yes, the potential is there for something more threatening to occur but even then, the upper risk level is currently for a fall of only 5-10cm. I am not attempting to pee on people's excitement here because I am lucky forward to receiving SNOW as much as any snow lover.

I copy below the current MetO warning for today, for the Southwest region.

Accumulations of 2-4 cm of snow could occur quite widely over southern counties, with a risk of 5-10 cm for parts of southwest England.

The public are advised to be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

More snow is forecast for tomorrow as well and I believe the main talking point will be the wind and blowing snow, causing a feel of extreme cold.

Edited March 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[jessandjon]

Mum said before I was born maybe 1985?? There was a big snow event only tiny bit forecast ended up with 18 inch!!!! I just want to see it falling!!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Lets hope the 06z GFS is right. Would be nice if it had more model support for they evolution though.

Well to be honest for our area it will be just nice to see some Snow falling , I know it is doubtful that we get a full on dumping , but I honestly didn't think we would see Snow in our area falling again until next winter... Some people have high expectations and rightly so , but some nice flakes falling out the sky over Weston Pier will do me nicely

Edited March 10, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk