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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

It really is heart breaking to be honest I have seen a couple of small flurry but i'm about 1 mile north of it cray.gif

I have a feeling this will be exactly what happens to the main band over night into monday... aggressive.gif

I don't know , but Since the North Sea showers for the East have powered up , our band is hitting a brick wall ... Been around Somerset all day and just can't cross that line ....

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Southward movement on the NAE on the 12z , is usually a sign the GFS is going to shift South as well, I don't know why but I have noticed that over this winter.

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Hurricane Buckley Newbie

Hurricane Buckley

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Southward movement on the NAE on the 12z , is usually a sign the GFS is going to shift South as well, I don't know why but I have noticed that over this winter.

Im ignoring it, its been pretty rubbish, think the GFS will keep it where it is.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

There has been some sferics recorded around the Cherbourg pen ..

post-15177-0-23321500-1362928051_thumb.p

As regards to the NAE, it does match the BBC's thoughts and forecasts so it shouldn't be ignored completely.

Edited by Mapantz
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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Im ignoring it, its been pretty rubbish, think the GFS will keep it where it is.

Hope your right .... Because I really did expect a Northward movement on the NAE not a Southward movement.. Will have to see if Exeter modify it later.

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DanDorsetUK Community Regular

DanDorsetUK

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
Posted (edited)

Think we all need to keep our fingers and toes crossed now! The NAE isnt the best of signs i must admit, but im going to keep the faith! We all know it will go down to nowcasting anyway!

Edited by Rapodo
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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Hope your right .... Because I really did expect a Northward movement on the NAE not a Southward movement.. Will have to see if Exeter modify it later.

ppn has moved north a little we now have moderate snow of a sudden air_kiss.gif not settling though.

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mcweather Aficionado

mcweather

Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
Posted (edited)

some flakes in a sleety mix about an hour ago here at Winfrith, temp about 3°C. Just seen the latest bbc forecast suggest that the Isle of Purbeck could get a real pasting overnight and tomorrow . The forecaster mentioned that extremely heavy snow would be dangerously close to the south coast, so even a very modest northwards adjustment could give a really severe event for say Dorset Hants and the IOW.

Those looking for a little inspiration should take a look at Philip Edens case history of the blizzard of 1881 when the channel low responsible got to the Cherbourg peninsular and then circled north to the Isle of Wight westwards to Lyme bay and then carried on moving east again.

There is nothing to say that our channel low is just going to whizz along in a straight line. A fascinating evening and night let alone tomorrow for coastal Dorset and Hampshire I think.

Edited by mcweather
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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

ppn has moved north a little we now have moderate snow of a sudden air_kiss.gif not settling though.

Thats good to here, as I think that band is the only band that will be as far North as us ... Still in these situations it is always best to expect the unexpected ...

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philglossop Community Regular

philglossop

Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
Posted

Given the bitter December of 2010 only gave us a paltry 1 inch- this "could" give Plymouth the best snowfall since 1994.

It's our turn............ please!

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

afternoon all.

we have a flakes of snow here every now and again.

fromey

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galacticwarrior Rookie

galacticwarrior

Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
Posted (edited)

Light flurry here, now eased off.

Pleasant surprise considering I'm probably not gonna get any snow from the upcoming event :)

Edited by galacticwarrior
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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

First model out is the GME and that actually has it much further North ... Cannon fodder though but still good to see.

gme-0-24.png?12

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divadee Enthusiast

divadee

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole
Posted

I think an afternoon nap is in order after my Mother's Day Sunday lunch. It will help when I'm up all night lamp post watching!

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Mark Parsons Aficionado

Mark Parsons

Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
Posted (edited)

some flakes in a sleety mix about an hour ago here at Winfrith, temp about 3°C. Just seen the latest bbc forecast suggest that the Isle of Purbeck could get a real pasting overnight and tomorrow . The forecaster mentioned that extremely heavy snow would be dangerously close to the south coast, so even a very modest northwards adjustment could give a really severe event for say Dorset Hants and the IOW.

Those looking for a little inspiration should take a look at Philip Edens case history of the blizzard of 1881 when the channel low responsible got to the Cherbourg peninsular and then circled north to the Isle of Wight westwards to Lyme bay and then carried on moving east again.

There is nothing to say that our channel low is just going to whizz along in a straight line. A fascinating evening and night let alone tomorrow for coastal Dorset and Hampshire I think.

Nail biting stuff indeed, wondered where you were Mcweather! Wintery rain here to and 4oC. Edited by Mark Parsons
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-uksnow- Explorer

-uksnow-

Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
Posted

First model out is the GME and that actually has it much further North ... Cannon fodder though but still good to see.

gme-0-24.png?12

Looking at the french view of it i viewed it as a downgrade from its previous run

gmefr-0-30.png?12

I watched it coming out and it was 1mb weaker than its previous run, may not sound like alot but it sure makes a differences to the extent of the northern track...

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DanDorsetUK Community Regular

DanDorsetUK

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
Posted

I have a gut feeling my area is in for a right good covering! You need to look at all the models and then find the average middle ground! It still looks good for Dorset and Hampshire thats for sure! I have a good feeling alot of us will see the snow!

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Fitzwis Enthusiast

Fitzwis

Posted
  • Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted (edited)

There is an eerie resemblance here to the 12 or so hours leading up to the last major snowfall event that I can remember in Jersey way back in 1979. We have a strengthening SE to E wind and the temperature is beginning to fall steadily. There is also a very low grey veil of stratus beginning to engulf our skies and my gut instinct is telling me that we are about to witness an extraordinary weather event not seen here for a long time. This gut instinct is now even more justified by the fact we have code red blizzard warnings out in force across the island:

http://www.channelon...e.asp?ID=504256

http://www.bbc.co.uk...jersey-21733236

Edited by Fitzwis
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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Todays models have south and west Cornwall back in for some possibly significant snowfall tomorrow. Website will be updated this evening.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Author
Posted

First model out is the GME and that actually has it much further North ... Cannon fodder though but still good to see.

gme-0-24.png?12

??.....you sure Chris....look at the exact centre of LP system....looks pretty much the same as the other model output so far today, in fact it's a couple of mb shallower which mean ppn would not be thrown as far north as the 06z GFS run.....but it's just one model

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Snowing now in Shepton Mallet @ 3.1 c. 1006mb

Welcome aboard and please keep the reports coming.

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