Spring Model Discussion 18Z 9/3/13 onwards....

[Captain Shortwave]

With an ensemble mean pressure chart like this at T180

Cold is very close and could possibly come from the North or East at short notice. Good support for a well below average spell to continue though of course at this time of year it will probably mean more rain than snow to low levels.

[Frosty.]

After today's freeze it looks less cold tomorrow with temps nearer the 3-6c range, similar values on wednesday but temps recovering even more on thurs, fri and into the weekend but remaining below average in cool cyclonic conditions with a flabby trough disrupting over the uk, perhaps the far north could remain in colder uppers with a greater risk of wintry ppn but I think it's fair to say this morning's op runs so far are not as wintry as the CFS projections, the trough is further north on the 00z and 06z op which means the uppers will become less cold and we will lose the snow risk apart from the higher hills in the north of the uk from thursday onwards. It's such a shame (from a snow lovers perspective) that the uk mainland has missed out on the severe blizzards raging across the channel islands and northern france today and tonight with 20-40cm of snow being whipped up into deep drifts but at least the far south of england and especially the far southeast looks like being brushed by this major snow event before it clears away. For the north and east of the uk, especially coastal, it looks like wintry showers will continue until late wednesday at least and overnight there will be widespread frosts.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Frosty039

[tom_f123]

Not a good outlook ATM for those wanting warm settled spring like conditions, becoming gradually less cold throughout the week, but remaining cool and unsettled thoroughout, into the weekend and next week.

[picog]

If you don't like/want rain and cool (which I don't), it's looking foul starting as early as this weekend!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[Captain Shortwave]

From my point of view I would like the setup from late next week to take a hike southwards to put us back in the cold air. Not because I like the cold and snow but because frankly we have high pressure completely bossing the Arctic (suppose it's better than during the summer ), mild is not really going to happen with low pressure going through the UK a lot further south than it should. In the end interesting weather first and frankly cool and grotty is no ones preference apart from people who like ducks.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shedhead]

Lack of posts in here pretty much sums up the mood, with 99% of curtain pull backs this morning failing to reveal anything remotely white.. . That said the latest guidance right across the model suite suggests any mild weather is a long way off, let alone anything warm, with northern areas almost certain to see some snowfalls at times though the middle third of March over on high ground in particular. Those bemoaning the fact this could all have been so very different if it were now mid Jan are of course correct, but it isn't and the fact this setup has developed now will hopefully mean the development a pattern more condusive to providing some dry, warm and sunny weather come June-Aug. Let's hope we can finally break the 'right synoptics, wrong time of year' hoodoo as 2013 goes on.

[mushymanrob]

From my point of view I would like the setup from late next week to take a hike southwards to put us back in the cold air. Not because I like the cold and snow but because frankly we have high pressure completely bossing the Arctic (suppose it's better than during the summer ), mild is not really going to happen with low pressure going through the UK a lot further south than it should. In the end interesting weather first and frankly cool and grotty is no ones preference apart from people who like ducks.

id prefer it to be further west, south of west actually, it might then bring some warmth! but no, theres no prospect of anything like average let alone warm, and whilst i think the current outputs are very likely to become reality over the next 5-7 days theres more chances of a colder incursion again then a warmer one....... unfortunately.

ps...had a heavy snowblizzard about an hour ago.... i really liked it! it was great for once to see a proper heavy blowy blizzard as opposed to the weak nothingness we usually get. pity im supposed to be working, pity its in spring.

[Mair Snaw]

id prefer it to be further west, south of west actually, it might then bring some warmth! but no, theres no prospect of anything like average let alone warm, and whilst i think the current outputs are very likely to become reality over the next 5-7 days theres more chances of a colder incursion again then a warmer one....... unfortunately.

ps...had a heavy snowblizzard about an hour ago.... i really liked it! it was great for once to see a proper heavy blowy blizzard as opposed to the weak nothingness we usually get. pity im supposed to be working, pity its in spring.

Just had the same here, didnt last long but was good to see, no sign of anything warm in any output at the moment, not as cold as today but not mild seems to be the way things are going.

[Summer Sun]

The met office probability maps for March have updated today for April to June

850hpa temperature has a 40% chance of been above normal and 20% chance for below normal

Precipitation has a 40% chance of been below normal for the same period

Early days yet but its looking good for a warm summer a 40% and for some in the north a 60% chance of above normal temperatures!

Edited March 11, 2013 by Gavin.

[edg]

It's remarkable how badly the NAE has performed vis-a-vis this event. It's consistently wanted to model the snow further south than it is (on each consecutive run a correction has been made at the 3h mark only for the model to push the precipitation south again at 6h) . Does anyone know why that might be?

[Tim Bland]

It's remarkable how badly the NAE has performed vis-a-vis this event. It's consistently wanted to model the snow further south than it is (on each consecutive run a correction has been made at the 3h mark only for the model to push the precipitation south again at 6h) . Does anyone know why that might be?

If you check the radar though the precip in the south is showers pushing from NE. These showers are being fed by the low to our south. The frontal snow is in the channel pushing west to east

[stodge]

Afternoon all

As no one seems interested, let me offer an early interpretation of the Operational output;

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013031112/UW144-21.GIF?11-17

UKM at T+144 - not quite deja vu but that's not a warm-looking chart by any stretch. That said, I don't think the lowland south will get snow from that. Higher ground, however, could well get some further accumulations.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013031112/gfs-0-144.png?12

Modelled further north and more intense on GFS - cold rain for southern England I'm certain but plenty for those on higher ground.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013031112/gfs-1-144.png?12?12

The 850s suggest that - rain for the majority but I would guess higher elevations could support snowfall.

GFS trends warmer into FI as the trough over the British Isles withdraws west though the T+384 is a little tease in its own right.

GEM aligns the LP into a more complex feature but draws warm air up the SE flank so it would be much warmer in the SE though (I would argue) unsettled with rain or showers. Higher ground to the N and NW still sits under some cold air.

The moidelling of this storm from the NW for next weekend/this time next week remains (as you'd expect) up for debate. UKMO doesn't suggest anything overly warm before then and the GFS, while warming from today's extraordinarily low values (and suggests another ice day in the SE tomorrow) doesn't pull us back to double figures.

[Gustywind]

The alignment of the trough is all wrong on Friday for bulk of uk on GFS as it pulls in mild south westerlies ahead of the front, so rain for all I'd imagine. Remarkable northern blocking then in FI, with a sea of high pressure from Scandi to Greenland, the uk manages to stay mild though as a front parks itself to our west with nowhere to go. Still remarkable charts and plenty of time for a different outcome.

[picog]

The alignment of the trough is all wrong on Friday for bulk of uk on GFS as it pulls in mild south westerlies ahead of the front, so rain for all I'd imagine. Remarkable northern blocking then in FI, with a sea of high pressure from Scandi to Greenland, the uk manages to stay mild though as a front parks itself to our west with nowhere to go. Still remarkable charts and plenty of time for a different outcome.

Getting ready for summer perhaps? Hopefully not.

[Summer Sun]

GFS, ECM & UKMO all go there own way at t120 take your pick as to which will be right

UKMO

GFS

ECM

I prefer ECM's route as the high up north isn't as strong as it is on GFS

Edited March 11, 2013 by Gavin.

[Panayiotis]

Lovely omega block on the ECM at 144hrs!

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM at 144 is cold. Uppers at -5 or -6 and thicknesses relatively low. Marginal snow event likely by that chart, especially during overnight period where snow could fall to lower levels

Same story at 168

Edited March 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

With the uppers not so low at t168 snow is likely to be more marginal to lower levels especially for those in the south

[Cheshire Freeze]

With the uppers not so low at t168 snow is likely to be more marginal to lower levels especially for those in the south

Uppers at -5 or -6 and relatively low thicknesses will support snow after sunset until dawn, even for low levels in the N. Definitely marginal though

Edited March 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[Panayiotis]

Look at this pattern for mid March!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Heavy wintry showers developing during the day. Pleasant in sunshine, temperatures plummet during showers with uppers at -6

[nick sussex]

Some great northern blocking shown across the models shame its March and not January.

I think for northern areas especially higher ground the ECM does show further chances for snow but todays events are very unlikely to be repeated given that was an exceptional cold pool for the time of year.

Still doubts as to how far south any troughing will get but the models seem to be edging away from any early spring warmth.

[Cheshire Freeze]

At 216 we lose the uppers supportive of snow as the low heads west

This is a STUNNER of a chart though.....oh to have had this in Jan!

Edited March 11, 2013 by CreweCold

[Cheese Rice]

Does anyone have the link to archived charts?

[Summer Sun]

Does anyone have the link to archived charts?

GFS

http://translate.goo...PMG73jFY737971g

ECM

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php%3Fech%3D72%26mode%3D1%26map%3D0%26archive%3D1&usg=ALkJrhg1Cu15LeLMQxX0PezPA0q8X0TK6Q

Edited March 11, 2013 by Gavin.