Spring Model Discussion 18Z 9/3/13 onwards....

[Cheshire Freeze]

reload?we appear to be struggling to get much snow from-12 uppers, cant see -5delivering. its mid march, not mid winter, the outputs might look wintry but itll be hard to deliver now. but the outlook is cold, below average and unsettled.

of course i might wake up tomorrow and find a countrywide dumping!lol. c'est la vie.

522 thicknesses....it's wintry.

[Isabellesnanny]

All looks pretty dramatic according to posters on here but BBC weather didn't really seem to forecast anything very severe - do the professionals have more information to look at than is available to the general public. There have been an awful lot of times when very severe conditons seem to be forecast on here but the forecasters haven't gone along with these and have been proven correct so wondered what additional information they might have available?

[johnholmes]

its called hopecasting Isabelle, a number enjoy the fun of the chase to find the most wintry chart often way outside any reasonable expectation of it being correct at T+00.

But yes the professional have more data and also an utterly objective professional approach to the weather.

Quite a difference

[Panayiotis]

reload?we appear to be struggling to get much snow from-12 uppers, cant see -5delivering. its mid march, not mid winter, the outputs might look wintry but itll be hard to deliver now. but the outlook is cold, below average and unsettled.

of course i might wake up tomorrow and find a countrywide dumping!lol. c'est la vie.

Thats because there's no precipitation,if we had precipitation we would easily get a dumping!

[SnowObsessor90]

522 thicknesses....it's wintry.

But still a noticeble shift west from the last run. wouldn't surprise me if west based - NAO becomes the form horse again post this weekend if this trend continues which will please the likes of Gavin and the other warm seekers out there I'm sure.

Edited March 10, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[Captain Shortwave]

Thats because there's no precipitation,if we had precipitation we would easily get a dumping!

There is precipitation. Heavy showers down most east facing coasts at the moment including me

Just to answer the points above. Given the situation which is a shower based flow off the sea. The forecast cannot predict how much snow a specific area can get. Some might get a dumping, some just down the road might get nothing. All you can really do is give a general broad brush of how much you would think an area of the country would get. (2-5cm yellow warning down the eastern flank of the uk). If there were organised systems in the flow then they would be shown and warnings would be applied aka the snow over the south potentially.

NASA model looks to be taking the low later this week across south west England heading towards France, and on thursday the -12 isotherm causally crosses the whole of the South East corner.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Hammer]

All looks pretty dramatic according to posters on here but BBC weather didn't really seem to forecast anything very severe - do the professionals have more information to look at than is available to the general public. There have been an awful lot of times when very severe conditons seem to be forecast on here but the forecasters haven't gone along with these and have been proven correct so wondered what additional information they might have available?

Hi weather warnings out to Thursday in Met Office site and its Sunday. BBC and METO can often cover many bases in a forecast. So don't get to caught up that they nail it.

[nick sussex]

I'm sure the UKMO will be relieved once this low in Northern France departs the scene.

Even now I doubt the models will have this accurately modelled in terms of northern extent, the latest variable seems to be a slight pivot and hump of precip extending out of northern France, a lot of heavy snow in the Channel which could either stay there or brush areas like Sussex/Kent more especially.

Then these shower streams could throw up some large totals, but close by there could be very little so overall I think a headache all round for the UKMO.

[Panayiotis]

The CFS is one of a beauty run tonight similar to yesterday cold all the way to 384hrs, also quite a snowy run for the entire country with -8C uppers and lows providing the precipitation.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=354&mode=2&carte=0&run=10

[Blizzardof82]

CFS does get knocked but it has consistently modelled a cold March for some time now.

[Panayiotis]

CFS does get knocked but it has consistently modelled a cold March for some time now.

Yes first one to call it! Long range trends it picks up quite well, its the smaller features/details which it normally gets the 'stick' for.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes first one to call it! Long range trends it picks up quite well, its the smaller features/details which it normally gets the 'stick' for.

See this is where people should realise the purpose of the CFS is not to pick up the finer picture. It's a long range model which is designed to pick up the longwave pattern i.e placement of high and low pressure anomalies. To ask it to be as detailed as an ECM or GFS op is unfair.

[Guest pjl20101]

CFS does get knocked but it has consistently modelled a cold March for some time now.

I still say the Jamstec IOD and the Bejing Climate Center are better, in actual fact the Global Seasonal model on the met office site is another one I'd recommend you guys to look at. Meanwhile the CFS did model a March with above average heights towards the north, and were correct to be suspicious about this month. The problem is the negative NAO, even Gavin p noticed that we would have a cool spring as he identified from the Bejing Climate Center and Global Seasonal ensemble model and so far is doing a great job. It is verifying.

[Weather-history]

Looks after Wednesday, cool, chilly or cold cyclonic sums it up and past next weekend. Looks as though it could be a great Easter for the Scottish ski resorts.

Easter is almost within range of GFS now.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Weather-history

[Weather-history]

An impressive Arctic High on ECM 0Z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

[winterof79]

For those not joining in the action today,there are plenty of chances this week to be had and right through next weekend too

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=66&mode=2 Tues/Wed

ECM and UKMO not quite together at 144 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013031100/ECH1-144.GIF?11-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013031100/UN144-21.GIF?11-06

with the former filling the low at this time scale and then pulling it away to drag in another easterly feed for northern Britain http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013031100/ECH1-192.GIF?11-12

GFS fills it at 144 and has it a little too far north for any real action at present http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013031100/gfsnh-0-156.png?0

[bluearmy]

Just a note that any undercutting flow off northern france later in the week will, of course, be over snowfields.

[IDO]

From the GFS 0z it is the last rites of Winter for most these next few days. The exception being hills and mountains and possibly a transitional event on Friday from the low moving SE. The GEFS suggests 7/10 days of the UK under a trough with a low in close situ to the UK:

D5: D8:

D10: D13:

Nothing Springlike, cool and wet and dull for many:

Strong support with the op, control and mean closely aligned. Not till the end of FI that the temps near average:

These are south centric so cooler further north. The ECM this morning also similar synoptics but in its latter stages the trough edges further west than the GFS.

The seagulls in the Channel should get a pasting from the Channel Low, as should the Channel Isles and Sussex:

(snow depth): A very localised event.

But just too south for most, The streamers in the next 36 hours are going to be hit and miss as you can see from the current radar, very narrow bands (as of 7am): Very cold today obviously.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My god its cold out in that wind.....Snowing here which wasn't forcast by the SE BBC. Impressive ECM...Oh for it to be the 16-22 period of Jan!!

BFTP

[Tim Bland]

Does anyone know how well the new NASA GEOS5 model is performing? It was touted as the new kid on the Block due to its high resolution etc.

It has the end of the week low much further south increasing the chances of everyone seeing snow.. ECM and GFS has more of a cold rain or sleet event away from northern hills and Scotland

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geose_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&carte=0

[mushymanrob]

522 thicknesses....it's wintry.

it is, but its in fi and probably wont varify, if it does then yes its possible to get more wintriness.

its called hopecasting Isabelle, a number enjoy the fun of the chase to find the most wintry chart often way outside any reasonable expectation of it being correct at T+00.

But yes the professional have more data and also an utterly objective professional approach to the weather.

Quite a difference

you sound as frustrated as me john :lol:

Thats because there's no precipitation,if we had precipitation we would easily get a dumping!

indeed, but somehow precip off the northeast at this time of the year appears to be hard to come by. we often get a north sea airflow which in spring usually delivers low grey stratus not the snowshowers in clear skies that we seem to get in winter under similar synoptics. im sure theres some technical physical reason for this.

well dispite the coldest synoptics of the winter with remarkably low uppers (and the ramping ), snowmaggedon hasnt happened. but it is a remarkable cold snap for mid march, damaging wildlife (which isnt good) and a severe frost to come tonight.

things are set to calm down as the week progresses, temps slowly recover towards average (but never getting there). a trough later this week might provide snow for higher ground, but the outlook in general terms is for cool, unsettled, weather with periods of rain or showers, some of which could be wintry in nature. theres no sign of anything settled or warm.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It looks like this week will remain cold for many places but at the same time gradually turn less cold. The end of this weeks herald's in a unsettled spell of weather for most. temperatures will remain slightly below average and any snow will be reserved for the mountains based on current output.

Edited March 11, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Gibby]

Good morning folks. Here is this mornings report on the 00zs from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Monday March 11th 2013.

All models show Low pressure over Northern France with a biting and bitterly cold NE flow over the whole of the UK. Through the coming days the Low to the South is shown to move away East as High pressure slips South to the West of the UK. Winds back through North towards the West by the middle of the week as well as decrease considerably. Snow showers will plague Eastern areas throughout this spell with some more prolonged snowfall possible in the SE today. Through the middle of the week showers will turn from snow more to sleet and rain in Southern and Western areas from Wednesday before Low pressure develops to the NW at the end of the week brings more general rainfall and less cold conditions at least to the South and West but still the risk of further snowfall over some Northern and Eastern areas, especially over the hills.

GFS then shows a complex Low structure over the UK next weekend with rain at times and showers at others, sometimes heavy, with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible in temperatures still below average though less cold than at present. Longer term pressure remains locked into Low pressure mode over and around the UK with further heavy rain and showers with sleet and snow at times in the North and East, especially but not exclusively over the hills.

The GFS Ensembles show the cold weather of the first three or four days of this week giving way to somewhat less cold but unsettled conditions which last then throughout the rest of the run. With uppers still on the cold side of average for most areas some wintry precipitation mixed in with the rainier spells are likely at times.

The Jet Stream shows an unabated flow across Southern latitudes still before a new wing sets up further North moving SE over the British Isles.

UKMO shows Low pressure over Ireland at the weekend with cyclonic winds over the UK with spells of rain and showers for all, heavy at times and falling as now on Northern hills.

GEM shows spiralling Low pressure over and around the UK next weekend and beyond with frequent heavy showers and longer spells of rain with hail and thunder possible as well as sleet and snow over the hills in rather cold and windy conditions.

ECM too shows a similar pattern over the weekend as the others before contracting Low pressure out into the Atlantic at the end of the run bringing less cold air into Southern and Western areas with troughs delivering rain at times here. In the North and East rather colder conditions continue with rain too but also the risk of snow at times, especially over higher elevations. It will be windy at times nationwide.

In Summary Spring remains on hold with the current very cold conditions moderating to something more tolerable but still rather cold by the end of the week. Snow and sleet showers will continue through the week gradually turning more to rain late in the week with a very unsettled spell to come next weekend with a lot of rain for some and still some snow in the North and East at times, especially but not exclusively over the hills. Thereafter, Northern blocking remains dominant keeping the UK in the breeding ground for further deep Low pressure and further rainfall in temperatures somewhat on the cold side of normal, especially towards the North and East where the risk of snowfall at times remains.

[Captain Shortwave]

Does anyone know how well the new NASA GEOS5 model is performing? It was touted as the new kid on the Block due to its high resolution etc.

It has the end of the week low much further south increasing the chances of everyone seeing snow.. ECM and GFS has more of a cold rain or sleet event away from northern hills and Scotland

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

Not sure to be honest. I feel a bit sceptical but it only goes up to t120 and runs twice a day but seems to be following the other models in general pattern. May be more accurate when it comes to the movements of clod pools and predicting upper air temps. This mornings run shows a snow event for the Midlands northwards even to low levels with low pressure crossing southern England with -8 uppers cutting into the northern flank of the low. This low needs watching as this could be another possible snow event for a large section of the country.

Update on things on the ground. In response to mushy. The sky is 100% stratus free. Disappointingly for me it's sunny here and has been all morning with the snow from last night gradually melting. Streamers to the south and scattered showers to the north.

Between then we need to keep an eye on a potential snow event on wednesday as a renewed plunge of cold air moves south along a shortwave moving down the north sea.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It's looking really unsettled on the GFS 06z from the weekend onwards, all the way out to 10 days +. Nothing particularly mild nor cold. Certainly nothing spring like in the near future. But I would also say more autumnal than winter.

Edited March 11, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls