South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 10/03/13 17z---->

[gottolovethisweather]

Tomasz Schafernaker just said this ..

North France,Channel I. still in for big snowstorm tomorrow.Normandy perhaps 50cm snow.South Eng still at risk of being brushed

It seems that's all they think it is, a risk.

Bang on, I would say. I have said the same all day and Kent's post very much backed up my ideas. HOWEVER the usual caveats apply and it would not take much to move things Northwards a touch. Further SE, Monday night into Tuesday is very much a watching period for those on the Eastern edge of this region.

I truly wouldn't want to be in the MetO's shoes right now.

[karlos1983]

I sadly think we'll miss this now, everything is pointing towards it.

Could you elaborate, if you truly believe everything is point towards it, please explain, or new members will be confused by the conflicting posts.

[TwisterGirl81]

18z GFS keeping main heavy ppn off in the channel aswel. only EXTREME coast recieving mod snowfall for a time. if only this system was 50 measly miles north. not a lot, 50 fooking miles!!! oh well, theres always next winter

My thoughts exactly, soooo close, you never know, all it takes is a slight shift and we get it.

That low is trying it's hardest to avoid the uk

[Mapantz]

Bang on, I would say. I have said the same all day and Kent's post very much backed up my ideas. HOWEVER the usual caveats apply and it would not take much to move things Northwards a touch. Further SE, Monday night into Tuesday is very much a watching period for those on the Eastern edge of this region.

I truly wouldn't want to be in the MetO's shoes right now.

The regional forecast went completely against the national forecast, that's the confusing thing. I would take the 'brush' comment as one which means 'there could be a risk of some large totals in some southern areas' but generally a few cm's covering large parts of the south. There's only so much you can fit in a tweet.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Mapantz

[Hurricane Buckley]

Could you elaborate, if you truly believe everything is point towards it, please explain, or new members will be confused by the conflicting posts.

Going by chart runs, it has pushed most of the PPN into the channel with only the extreme coast seeing something, still suppose we cant rule anything out yet. This has just come from Liam Dutton: Phew, latest info suggests that Normandy, France could see 30-50cm of snow in next 48hrs. If storm was 100 miles north, that'd be S'ern Eng.

[dec10snow]

Stop it right now.

It was asking for it... I apologise!

[GazzzaV6]

My thoughts exactly, soooo close, you never know, all it takes is a slight shift and we get it.

That low is trying it's hardest to avoid the uk

Couldn't agree more! Can't believe my native land is bang in line and we are so on the edge. Just hoping for that notherly shift.

[dancing daisy]

I am an old member and I am really confused now.

To sum up:

• It's going to snow
  
• It's not going to snow
  
• It won't snow 'til midnight
  
• It won't snow til 6pm
  
• It's snowing in Cornwall
  
• It's snowing in Devon
  
• It's snowing in Somerset
  
• It's not snowing.
  
• It was never going to happen anyway, you're all fools
  
• I'm stropping off and not coming back 'til next winter
  
• It's coming up from Cornwall
  
• It's coming over from France.
  
• Told you it would snow.
  

I think that just about covers all bases.

[dec10snow]

This has just come from Liam Dutton: Phew, latest info suggests that Normandy, France could see 30-50cm of snow in next 48hrs. If storm was 100 miles north, that'd be S'ern Eng.

if only.......

[Dorsetbred]

still light snow with dusting on car roofs,, Wind very gusty

Same her, it'll take an awful lot of what's coming down to make it even look white come tomorrow!

[karlos1983]

All I can say is its snowing in Poole and its not in the Channel Islands lol

[Brad]

A great shame, was hoping to get out tomo morning for a snowy photo shoot. Lets face it the only conditions that seem to come off here are Atlantic wind and rain!

[Dorset Splash]

I think the radar shows the centre of the low to be moving just slightly north of that projected. Good chance of covering Poole area ... fingers crossed!

[gottolovethisweather]

Could you elaborate, if you truly believe everything is point towards it, please explain, or new members will be confused by the conflicting posts.

TBF, the model output is pointing to it Karlos but I am NOT jumping ship in what is a developing situation, it truly is a 50/50 chance of something good for coastal locations right now.

[GazzzaV6]

All I can say is its snowing in Poole and its not in the Channel Islands lol

Love it Carlos! Hope you were right earlier; I took a look at your graphic. Signs of that shift............... we hope

[Fred Sykes]

Going by chart runs, it has pushed most of the PPN into the channel with only the extreme coast seeing something, still suppose we cant rule anything out yet. This has just come from Liam Dutton: Phew, latest info suggests that Normandy, France could see 30-50cm of snow in next 48hrs. If storm was 100 miles north, that'd be S'ern Eng.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Mapantz]

The latest video on the BBC website have the 9:10pm update, apart from parts of Devon and parts of Sussex and Kent, they don't give anything bar a 'few flakes'

[GazzzaV6]

I think the radar shows the centre of the low to be moving just slightly north of that projected. Good chance of covering Poole area ... fingers crossed!

Good news Mr Splash! Hope you are on to something

[cerneman]

Same her, it'll take an awful lot of what's coming down to make it even look white come tomorrow!

Yes very light, just slight dusting on car but ground very wet,

[gottolovethisweather]

The regional forecast went completely against the national forecast, that's the confusing thing. I would take the 'brush' comment as one which means 'there could be a risk of some large totals in some southern areas' but generally a few cm's covering large parts of the south. There's only so much you can fit in a tweet.

And you would be right, largely based on your highlighted comment.

On reflection, the following 24-36 hours weather remains uncertain for most of this region.

[Argyle1980]

It's snowing in Truro :-)

[Dorset Splash]

Could we get another "Snow Day" Gazzza? I think we will back at the ranch tomorrow

[karlos1983]

Love it Carlos! Hope you were right earlier; I took a look at your graphic. Signs of that shift............... we hope

I remain confident, purely because of the graphic I posted earlier and the radar showing bands moving toward the south coast. And the fact it is currently snowing outside my front door!

[DanDorsetUK]

Settling on car roofs and windows quite nicely now here. Nice to see even if this all we get!

[gottolovethisweather]

I am an old member and I am really confused now.

To sum up:

• It's going to snow
  
• It's not going to snow
  
• It won't snow 'til midnight
  
• It won't snow til 6pm
  
• It's snowing in Cornwall
  
• It's snowing in Devon
  
• It's snowing in Somerset
  
• It's not snowing.
  
• It was never going to happen anyway, you're all fools
  
• I'm stropping off and not coming back 'til next winter
  
• It's coming up from Cornwall
  
• It's coming over from France.
  
• Told you it would snow.
  

I think that just about covers all bases.

Why are you confused when most, if not all of the above, is the truth.

The future is yet undecided and a model projection will not NAIL things until the fat lady and her choir has started singing. All of that activity will happen from the early hours onwards.

Edited March 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather