Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 20/03/13 22z ------>

[SMU]

Guys just to clarify as Im whizzing around the regional threads-

HC is correct - there is 2 fronts, the first one is showing its hand in the SW now & is visible on the radar, that will push through & should reach the NE overnight & into tomorrow-

The NAE 24 -36 shows this well arriving in your area-

What people are referring to in terms of 'southerly' corrections is where the secondary front stalls out-

Initially this looked like being good for the NE - running from East anglia up to manchester & borders across Scotland-

This was the prognosis of the GFS ( Mainly ) 2 days ago- however this zone was forecast by some ( me / TEITS/ SK ) & a few others to be a LONG way further south- infact if people had just followed the ECm this has never been North.

we are now at around T48 & the models have retreated that snowline right down to London across to Wales- with more southward corrections possible-

So your 'fun' as it is needs to be arrive in the form in this front coming up today & hope it doesnt decay to much-

Tomorrow the second front MAY make it up to the south Yorks borders so the further south you are in this region - the better.

What I would say is ignore the frontal zone & look towards convective snow showers Mon-weds- they could be very beefy under -11c air & sub 532 heights

S

[Lion]

Well, having said the above, as per my previous posts until I see how the radar is looking tomorrow morning I'm still not making any final decisions. All along I've had a feeling we might end up just that little bit too far north and east for the heaviest snow. It's looking pretty certain we'll see snow tomorrow + Saturday, but I'm still not convinced that anywhere other than the southernmost parts of our region, (south Sheffield and down), will see heavy snow.

I just asked hubby to take me shopping tonight. If all the forecasts are correct we will be digging out at our elevation. I know its down radar watching on the day.. It would be a most excellent birthday weekend though.

[Aaron]

I can understand Adam's frustration, NAE 00z was stinking, 06z not so much. GFS looks great, but in tthese situations I put more faith in NAE. Experience tells me to be disappointed, features like this really struggle against blocks, but they find it easy to make it herein the summer.I'm still hopeful, I just wish NAE in particular would sop changing so frequently.

PS sorry for typos, android 'keyboard' is garbage.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Aaron

[starflake]

Adam watch the latest BBC 24 forecast, has the heavy snow smack bang over us friday - saturday. Obviously this could change on their next forecast though ; )

Wow, that forecast looked amazing. I'm waiting for that yellow Met Office warning to turn amber.

[Harsh Climate]

Wow, that forecast looked amazing. I'm waiting for that yellow Met Office warning to turn amber.

Me two, wish they would hurry up

I think the time it's taking them to update just shows the uncertainty they must have!

[Sunny_AS]

Adam watch the latest BBC 24 forecast, has the heavy snow smack bang over us friday - saturday. Obviously this could change on their next forecast though ; )

Yes I saw that forecast, it seemed to have the second front a tad more north than what Steve Murr has said in his useful post above....

[Aaron]

I'm not expecting an amber warning here, possibly further SW. I think people are getting far too giddy.

Me two, wish they would hurry up

I think the time it's taking them to update just shows the uncertainty they must have!

[Clark3e]

Amber warnings starting to pop up..

[LeeSnowFan]

I still think I am in a prime spot for heavy snow and a good dumping of it, look north forecast this afternoon should be interesting.

So the latest met office update at 11am still shows my area for heavy snow 6am - lunctime saturday temp feels like -6 and wind gusts of 37mph

Edited March 21, 2013 by LeeSnowFan

[Craigers]

I still think I am in a prime spot for heavy snow and a good dumping of it, look north forecast this afternoon should be interesting.

So the latest met office update at 11am still shows my area for heavy snow 6am - lunctime saturday temp feels like -6 and wind gusts of 37mph

and my house is only 5-7 miles SE of you

[Craigers]

OMG

GFS 06Z IS A BEAST

[yaffle]

Well good luck to all of you in the South of the region but i can't see this amounting to much for York - it's been a rather poor winter (and spring!) for snow really. Our lack of elevation defeats us.

I promise not to moan though, even though the thought of you getting 30 - 40 cms makes me a smidgeon jealous...

[Andy_Calafell_Sheffield]

Guys just to clarify as Im whizzing around the regional threads-

HC is correct - there is 2 fronts, the first one is showing its hand in the SW now & is visible on the radar, that will push through & should reach the NE overnight & into tomorrow-

The NAE 24 -36 shows this well arriving in your area-

What people are referring to in terms of 'southerly' corrections is where the secondary front stalls out-

Initially this looked like being good for the NE - running from East anglia up to manchester & borders across Scotland-

This was the prognosis of the GFS ( Mainly ) 2 days ago- however this zone was forecast by some ( me / TEITS/ SK ) & a few others to be a LONG way further south- infact if people had just followed the ECm this has never been North.

we are now at around T48 & the models have retreated that snowline right down to London across to Wales- with more southward corrections possible-

So your 'fun' as it is needs to be arrive in the form in this front coming up today & hope it doesnt decay to much-

Tomorrow the second front MAY make it up to the south Yorks borders so the further south you are in this region - the better.

What I would say is ignore the frontal zone & look towards convective snow showers Mon-weds- they could be very beefy under -11c air & sub 532 heights

S

All very true, there have been southwards corrections of the second front but looking at the GFS accumulative PPN charts, these consistently show the highest totals being in N Wales and N.Midlands/S.Yorks with less the further north and east you go.Even with further slight corrections I cannot see these areas changing much, and most especially being corrected far enough south to see the SE taking the brunt of any snowfall.

[NorthantsSnow]

I do hope Doncaster is still in the firing line. In a drunken stupor last night upon viewing the models I decided to have a sizeable wager on Donny's racing meet being abandoned on Saturday. Seemed like a good idea at the time, not so much the next morning! Dreading any further SW shifts.

[Love Snow]

OMG

GFS 06Z IS A BEAST

That will do me !!

[Craigers]

I do hope Doncaster is still in the firing line. In a drunken stupor last night upon viewing the models I decided to have a sizeable wager on Donny's racing meet being abandoned on Saturday. Seemed like a good idea at the time, not so much the next morning! Dreading any further SW shifts.

West doncaster still looks to be in the firing line

[Ashley Godber]

I do hope Doncaster is still in the firing line. In a drunken stupor last night upon viewing the models I decided to have a sizeable wager on Donny's racing meet being abandoned on Saturday. Seemed like a good idea at the time, not so much the next morning! Dreading any further SW shifts.

What odds?

[Barking_Mad]

So, anyone going to put a guess in at snow depths in our region? What sort of totals at non-hilly levels can we expect?

[Mark Griffin]

Hmm i feel the main event may just stall out beneath my location. A few cm's of snow maybe but we'll see.

[Barking_Mad]

Hmm i feel the main event may just stall out beneath my location. A few cm's of snow maybe but we'll see.

What makes you say that? Lots to show plenty of snow for most of Yorkshire, surely?

[NorthantsSnow]

What odds?

Not great, about 4/5. It's a bit shorter than that on the exchanges now.

[Mark Griffin]

What makes you say that? Lots to show plenty of snow for most of Yorkshire, surely?

Oh yeah, we will get snow. No doubt about it but the second front i feel will meet the first and stall beneath south Yorkshire so the heaviest of the snow will sit around a line from Manchester through the mid Derbyshire area. We'll see

Edited March 21, 2013 by Mark Griffin

[Lion]

They took off Saturdays yellow warning..hope that's just for upgrading to Amber

[Hessle Owl]

Well keeping an open mind here don't expect much here only 20 miles inland from the coast and low lying right on the river humber so will just wait and see might be surprised. Being rare to get most of our snowfall this winter from frontal systems instead of the usual snow showers we get off the North sea.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Hessle Owl

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z keeps 30mm of precipitation as heavy snow.