Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 20/03/13 22z ------>

[Thundery wintry showers]

A question for Ian (TWS) or anyone else who could answer this, the easterly that follows on from this snow event, is this likely to be another "capped" grey cold easterly or could we some convection arising? I used to think that anything below -5c 850hpa coming off the North Sea mean't convection but this winter has shown that its not that simple. Cheers

I think it's almost certain to be a "capped" easterly- I've looked at various skew-t forecast diagrams and they all show a lot of instability between 850 and 1000hPa (sea surface temperatures near 5C and 850hPa temperatures near -10C) but then a thick dry, stable layer at 650-850hPa and even evidence of a temperature inversion at 800-850hPa. This would strongly support stratocumulus trapped underneath the dry stable layer, though if we get a flow from north of due east then the cap might retreat high enough to allow some light snow showers to develop.

If we get a northerly or north-easterly afterwards as per the last two ECMWF operational runs, though, we would almost certainly get sunshine and snow showers from that regime, as the temperatures and heights fall in the mid to upper atmosphere which would promote deeper instability.

[bryan629]

this image is from the 18z gfs for 9am friday morning Adam . from time of posting thats 37 hours away... does this make you feel better matey

[woldsowl]

Had very light persistent snow all morning followed by brief heavy showers of fine graupel this afternoon giving temporary dustings. But once the sun went down it's started to accumulate a bit, so nice and white out there, with some more to come.

Not looking forward to the upcoming weather as I have to drive to Brighton Friday and back Saturday. Hopefully I'll get stranded somewhere!

[Craigers]

Adam are you totally blind? It reaches Scotland on the BBC graphic chart and stalls in the middle of the isles which means Yorkshire gets hit. Are you seriously this misunderstood?

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z is epic, over 30mm of precipitation falling as snow.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Wonderful Meto update for our region this morning if you're a cold and snow lover!

Not often the Blizzard word is used twice in an update in mid winter let alone late March! 'Heavy snow and blizzards' on Saturday;

Headline:

Mostly dry today, but feeling increasingly cold in strengthening wind.

Today:

A bright, very cold, but icy start. Most parts will stay dry and bright with some sunshine but feeling very cold, especially later as a southeasterly breeze picks up. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Tonight:

Clouds thickening through the night with outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow spreading from the southwest, turning to snow at most elevations by morning. A bitterly cold wind. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Friday:

Light, locally moderate snow and blizzard conditions, mainly south of the region, giving significant accumulations over hills, but perhaps falling as rain or sleet near some eastern coasts. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Heavy snow and blizzards continuing through much of Saturday, slowly dying out during Sunday. Monday is mostly dry with some sunshine. Very cold and windy throughout.Updated: 0442 on Thu 21 Mar 2013

[Craigers]

The metoffiice weather maps shows heavy snow right in the middle of yorkshire!

[winterof79]

Stood my ground in the Model thread last night as the Southward correction Brigade marched in.

Grrr . Awsome event about to unfold,shame about further south though

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/03/21/basis00/ukuk/prty/13032300_2100.gif

[Craigers]

EPIC GFS 6Z !!!!

Stood my ground in the Model thread last night as the Southward correction Brigade marched in.

Grrr . Awsome event about to unfold,shame about further south though

http://expert-images...032300_2100.gif

to me it looks like its all trended back to its original path!

[Craigers]

If the fax charts are right which in my opinion are subject to change then some locations are going to get battered!

First occluded front moves in and brings snow to N England and possibly N Wales, Midlands.

http://www.meteociel...fax48s.gif?20-0

Becomes stationary and weakens.

http://www.meteociel...fax60s.gif?20-0

Another occluded front moves NE with this becoming stationary further S and is more likely to bring snow than rain for those further S.

http://www.meteociel...fax72s.gif?20-0

Moves back SW but probably weak by this time.

http://www.meteociel...fax84s.gif?20-0

What this all suggests to me is very severe conditions are possible with blizzards in places and because of the slow moving nature of the fronts then snow accumulations will cause problems. This initially for N England but even further S the rain would turn to snow.

TETIS IS BACK ON BOARD

[gobbyash]

My lad is on a school trip leaving at 1:30am on Saturday to go to Manchester Airport for a trip to Valencia for a football training camp. Not sure he'll get there. Nightmare.

[Lion]

My lad is on a school trip leaving at 1:30am on Saturday to go to Manchester Airport for a trip to Valencia for a football training camp. Not sure he'll get there. Nightmare.

oh no! I do hope he manages to get there.

[LeeSnowFan]

well steve M seems to think some areas in yorkshire will miss out?

Morning the models continue to push south, the t54 gfs ppn shows the stall line now alligned

Devon up to se Ireland and the eastern extent

Suffolk up to liverpool,

So in a matter of 12 hours we have lost southern scotland, parts of yorks and linc and now the corner of EA....

Poss time for shifts but thats wheres its sat. Also more pulses of snow into the SE at t 78-90

ECM + UKMO are very similar...

I will stick with the MO there going with snow for barnsley 6am tomorrow until 6am saturday im happy with that again subject to change!

Edited March 21, 2013 by LeeSnowFan

[Snowy White]

well steve M seems to think some areas in yorkshire will miss out?

Morning the models continue to push south, the t54 gfs ppn shows the stall line now alligned

Devon up to se Ireland and the eastern extent

Suffolk up to liverpool,

So in a matter of 12 hours we have lost southern scotland, parts of yorks and linc and now the corner of EA....

Poss time for shifts but thats wheres its sat. Also more pulses of snow into the SE at t 78-90

ECM + UKMO are very similar...

I'm still skeptical that we're all going to miss out on the extent that Steve suggests. MetO still seems sure of Northern England being badly hit. Although the snow line has shifted south, there's still time for small corrections that could bring more of the north-east of our region into the picture.

[winterof79]

If the fax charts are right which in my opinion are subject to change then some locations are going to get battered!

First occluded front moves in and brings snow to N England and possibly N Wales, Midlands.

http://www.meteociel...fax48s.gif?20-0

Becomes stationary and weakens.

http://www.meteociel...fax60s.gif?20-0

Another occluded front moves NE with this becoming stationary further S and is more likely to bring snow than rain for those further S.

http://www.meteociel...fax72s.gif?20-0

Moves back SW but probably weak by this time.

http://www.meteociel...fax84s.gif?20-0

What this all suggests to me is very severe conditions are possible with blizzards in places and because of the slow moving nature of the fronts then snow accumulations will cause problems. This initially for N England but even further S the rain would turn to snow.

TETIS IS BACK ON BOARD

Lisa Gallagher saying two fronts too.But the second will come up through here overnight Friday.

[winterof79]

I'm still skeptical that we're all going to miss out on the extent that Steve suggests. MetO still seems sure of Northern England being badly hit. Although the snow line has shifted south, there's still time for small corrections that could bring more of the north-east of our region into the picture.

He is talking himself in to getting snow.This fax chart is for 00z Sunday http://www.meteociel...fax72s.gif?20-0 . http://www.meteociel...fax84s.gif?20-0

by which time it will have flirted with us and is on the retreat.

It will give snow.There are 12 hours between all fax charts.

Edited March 21, 2013 by winterof79

[Snowy White]

He is talking himself in to getting snow.This fax chart is for 00z Sunday http://www.meteociel...fax72s.gif?20-0 . http://www.meteociel...fax84s.gif?20-0

by which time it will have flirted with us and is on the retreat.

It will give snow.There are 12 hours between the two fax charts.

I agree, it seems like the entire model output thread has a southern bias No wonder some of us newbies were getting slightly worried...

Edited March 21, 2013 by Snowy White

[LeeSnowFan]

I agree, it seems like the entire model output thread has a southern bias No wonder some of us newbies were getting slightly worried...

I often get confused in there sometimes, when they go on about south changes in charts etc but then realise there only looking out for themselfs! ah well! just seen national weather on breakfast certainly looking good for alot of us!

[boyzie]

BBC, did I hear that correctly? 30-40cm on some hills? wow!

[Harsh Climate]

Nervously checked the charts this morning and pheeew we are still in the firing line, especially you guys in south yorkshire!

Would just like it a little further north in the next few runs then it will be lol

[Sunny_AS]

There seems to be some mega southwards correction or was that north (or east or west??!!!)

[Derbyshire_snow]

How much are we talking about in cm's here?

[Craigers]

Lisa Gallagher saying two fronts too.But the second will come up through here overnight Friday.

Thats great as it means a shift further north than what steve M MASSIVE SOUTH CORRECTION BIAS is showing

Nervously checked the charts this morning and pheeew we are still in the firing line, especially you guys in south yorkshire!

Would just like it a little further north in the next few runs then it will be lol

Its all right mate as i want it to be further north so i don't have to work as i work in leeds! near the leeds football stadium

Edited March 21, 2013 by Craigers

[LeeSnowFan]

BBC, did I hear that correctly? 30-40cm on some hills? wow!

yes he did say that! gonna be really amazing but also difficult driving conditions

[Harsh Climate]

''I've just posted this in the model thread''

Some very IMBY posts appearing about the precipitation edging further south on each run, every precipitation forecast I can find has it reaching well into northern England!

GFS

UKMO

UKMO

JMA

NAE

GEM