South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 24th March 2013 22:00hrs>

[Coast]

Guess which 3rd we are in!?

The cold, dry third

[Guest bjaykent]

http://www.metoffice...ecast_temp.html

Hi Coast, pretty much sums it up, looks like next round of snow cup could be down to counting individual snow flakes or even how many times you can spot the sun!

[Coast]

Hi Coast, pretty much sums it up, looks like next round of snow cup could be down to counting individual snow flakes or even how many times you can spot the sun!

I've just been hunting 'round for indications that it will be anything other than dry, bitterly cold in the wind and cloudy. So far I can't find anything that suggests otherwise this morning right out to about the 9th April!!.

[joshuam10]

Something stirring in the Chanel. Really developing over last few hours

[Coast]

Something stirring in the Chanel. Really developing over last few hours

But it's heading SW away from us?

Edited March 27, 2013 by Coast

[joshuam10]

Not sure about that. Seems to have developed in situ and moved up from France.

[Steve C]

Morning all

Don't care whether it's snowing or otherwise in other areas personally.

I'm just happy to have driven into work in lovely sunshine. It makes the day feel so much better! Approx 2C here, at the moment. If the Suns hangs around, I expect 5C today.

[Essexwader]

Today for the first time in weeks we awoke to sunshine, now gone. Temperature still < 1 degree C.

Wind much reduced.

Last night Look East trumpeted the 5GW that the wind farms were contributing to the Grid - today it's <2.0GW!!!

Edited March 27, 2013 by Essexwader

[Heisenberg]

Not sure about that. Seems to have developed in situ and moved up from France.

The

stuff in the chanel is moving away from us?? Nothing else seems to be developing, not sure what you are seeing?

[Coast]

Not sure about that. Seems to have developed in situ and moved up from France.

http://weather2day.com/radar/

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop3uur

Moving away from us!! :lol:

[GoonerGregg77]

The showers across 70% of the country as apposed to yesterday's 40%, are falling further south. EA & SE turn tomorrow if my theory conspires. We can't be this unlucky during a prolonged easterly. Can we?

[Coast]

Eastbourne Wish Tower cafe site installed with Airstream trailer

Councillor Carolyn Heaps said: "Here in Eastbourne we do things in style, and our stunning new Airstream will add a unique touch of glamour to numerous events in our busy tourism calendar."

http://www.bbc.co.uk...sussex-21916838

[Steve C]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...sussex-21916838

So I guess the next regional meet will be in Eastbourne then?

[snow raven]

Enjoying the sunshine this morning - might be freezing cold still, but I can handle that if the sun is shining

Wouldn't it be nice if it hung around for the Easter weekend

[Guest bjaykent]

Well not great news for snow, sun or warm lovers this morning have just been through GEFS perturbations and only found one, number 14 that showed a hint of spring warmth without rain. 16c, sunny and dry, shame it's for the 9th of April! I think this is the kind of chart that Tamara was talking about yesterday where potentially the high pressure to our north could eventually sink over us and drag in some warmer air from the south. Gavin in the Mod thread would like this one!

Chances of it happening - very low but a possible solution down the line to this block.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=14&mode=0&carte=0

Edited March 27, 2013 by bjaykent

[Average Joe]

I've decided to dig out the Xmas decorations and put them up......that always seems to warm the weather up year on year for some reason!!

[Steve C]

I've been looking at the charts too and while no real warmth is on offer, if we can get the winds slightly south of east, then maybe we'll be in for more sunshine, which would feel okay, as it is now pretty strong - getting towards sunburn potential for me.

If the wind is north of east, however and with the sea surface temperatures being low, then it might be particularly cloudy, cold and grim, especially for people like myself, adjacent to the North Sea.

Edited March 27, 2013 by Steve C

[Methuselah]

Cold, windy and partly cloudy, 2C...

[Coast]

So I guess the next regional meet will be in Eastbourne then?

:winky:

[snowking]

http://m.guardian.co...ic-sea-ice-loss

I must say this sort of desperate story from so called 'climate scientists' is really starting to get my back up now, and when i'm mayor of the world, this sort of thing will be stopped.

The biggest problem I have with it is yes, the physics of the situation they are describing is indeed very likely to be correct - it links in, in fact, really rather nicely with the work of Cohen in some respects. However, a number of points really to make here

1) And this is one i've brought up before. This is all based upon already known physics. If thats the case, then why did the same breed of 'climate scientists' suggest about 10 years ago that by the end of this decade, kids in the UK would barely know what snow is. They have seemed so sure that the polar ice caps would continue to melt year upon year, and so surely they would have seen such events coming (at least one would think) rather than making the ridiculous previous suggestion of snow becoming rarer than a pope's mankini.

2) These sorts of winters have happened before, many times, and have indeed rolled on in to spring - we know this, because we are not headed for a record cold March. So, if we are to assume that such temperatures in the past are accurate (and climate scientists generally accept this as it helps to act as proof that the world is warming vs previous periods), then what caused those periods? Because according to their science, it certainly wouldn't have been polar ice melt. And this leads me nicely on to point 3...

3) Surely, there must be something else at play here. My opinion has been rather strong on this for the past 3 or 4 years now, ever since the sudden switch to the much cooler winters we have experienced since 2009/10, comparative to the rest of the 90/00's period, and that is that things must be, in some form, solar led.

Can it be co-incidental that two of the coldest climactic periods in recorded temperature history (the dalton and maunder minimums) occurred during quieter solar cycles? Perhaps yes, 2 isn't really a large enough sample size to say with absolute certainty that this was the cause. However, add to that the fact that the warmest period within recorded temperature history occurred during one of the highest sunspot-count solar maximums, and a picture starts to emerge.

Here is a useful graph showing the various solar maximum/minimum periods over the last few century's:

And here's one showing the smoothed trend line:

When we take a look in more detail at the end of Solar Cycle 23 (the previous solar cycle) and the current progress of solar cycle 24:

We see how much higher the sunspot count for cycle 23 was at its peak (far left of the graph) in comparison to the current peak for cycle 24 (the last part of the graph so far). We also notice those more extreme years, 09/10, occurred during a very low solar minimum (the lowest, in fact, since the 1870's). The current peak of cycle 24 is also considerably lower than that projected by the NOAA (the red line). However, also notice the huge peak anomaly that occurred around late 2011/early 2012....I seem to remember a much less cold winter last year than the previous few years...

Perhaps this helps to show an emerging picture. Cycle 24 is one of the lowest for many decades, defying even the constantly lowered projections in the build up to cycle 24 - a cycle which climate scientists claimed would be insignificant against the overall temperature trend caused by AGW. In fact, if we look at the Hadley CET data:

It may be noticeable that the CET peaked around the time of that very high solar maximum. Co-incidence once again? Perhaps. After all, this is just the UK, a very small land mass in the North-East Atlantic. However, if we take a look at the global temperature trend:

Its a little pre-emtive to suggest that we have hit a similar temperature cap here and that we will definitely see no further rise in temperature globally, that wont be clear for at least another 10-20 years yet, but it does match up rather well to the Hadley CET set, and the sunspot cycle data.

So, where do we go from here. First of all, I would project an overall decline in global temperature over the next 20-30 years. I am unsure whether this will prove a permanent decline, it may just be a temporary blip in the midst of an overall AGW lead unstoppable temperature rise.

In terms of the immediate future, i.e cycle 24 and 25, cycle 25 is now projected to be one of the lowest since the dalton minimum. The giveaway to the current lower solar cycles was actually the end of cycle 23, which Japanese researchers suggested was very much akin to the beginning of the solar cycles leading into the maunder and dalton minimum periods - cycle 23 lasted many months longer than it should have done, and historically an extended solar cycle head lead to the following few cycles to also last much longer and become far lower than their predecessors.

I would therefore predict that in the midst of the changeover between cycle 24/25 (theres a huge variations on estimations on when this might happen, ranging between 2018 and 2023 from various articles I have seen), the solar minimum that occurs could give rise to a winter akin to that of 63 or 47 (I think, in reality, it will lie somewhere between 2010/11 and 47 or 63). This most likely to occur towards the end of this decade - we did, in reality, escape a similar type winter to 47 or 63 back in 2010/11, when the reload of the cold just missed the UK to the East, instead giving continental Europe such winter synoptics. But as an overall trend in winters (next winter, perhaps, excepted, given the likely QBO setup, though if we remain below average sunspot count wise it will be interesting to see where solar factoring can over-ride such teleconnectics), expect them to be cooler and snowier than was the case during the 90-00's period that nearly drove us all insane.

Finally, whilst we are on the subject of sea ice, there is no doubt that the Arctic sea ice extent has declined dramatically:

However, isn't it amazing how little we have been hearing about, for example, the trend for sea ice extent in the southern hemisphere...

Its almost as if theres something to hide....

Anyway, in conclusion, vote SK for Mayor of The World

SK

[scrat]

Morning all! Sunny here, finally, and with snow blowing around in the wind....looks beautiful.

[Coast]

Morning all! Sunny here, finally

Morning Scrat!

Sun has finally broken through here and I have opened all the blinds in the office and turned the lights out - much to the announce of our design guys who are getting blinded!

[legrandefromage]

Arguing about the weather is like two fleas arguing over who owns the dog they are standing on. It is all rather pointless.

[alexisj9]

Sun trying to poke through a much lighter looking cloud today.

[Guest bjaykent]

Anyway, in conclusion, vote SK for Mayor of The World

SK

Hi Snowking, really enjoyable post, difficult not to be cynical about scientific research these days as what ever reports you read, they often reflect the aggenda of those which fund them - global warming has always been something that governments have latched on to as yet another earning stream through taxation. Newspapers much the same - editorial slant or sensationalism to sell copies - ice melting at the north pole far more interesting than it not melting at the south pole, Daily Mail/Express/Mirror etc roll out the same old Arctic winter stories 3 or 4 times every year, never letting the truth get in the way of a good story.

You'd get my vote Mayor Snowking!