South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion 27/03/13 18z ------>

[Panayiotis]

It's feeling very warm, still and quiet out there here in Sherborne...wonder if anything will happen? Have got my curtains open just incase we have some lightning, fingers crossed!

No sferics yet being shown on the radar I think tomorrow morning will be better.... but good luck anyway!

[Costa Del Fal]

Friday: Early showers then a sunnier afternoon. Pleasant in almost Average temperatures!

Cornwall's: Forecast: http://www.cciweather.co.uk/#/cornwall/4573724902
Channel Islands Forecast: http://www.cciweather.co.uk/#/channel-islands/4573977985

69 Followers @kernowweather

[SteveB]

Cloudy start with light/moderate rain.

Temp 7.6c

[Andy Bown]

7.6c which is the warmest start to a day since 8th March!

[AWD]

Just bog standard, persistent rain here this morning although mild at 7.4c

[TwisterGirl81]

The showers seem to be easing in Exeter, the main band passed through in the middle of the night which is why I can't tell you what that was like

I read this on the Metcheck website this morning though, it sounds interesting for Summer? But I don't understand if Northern Blocking happens in Summertime, wouldn't that mean a cool summer as appose to a warm summer? Or does it mean that if it were placed in a certain area ie Scandinia it would bring the continental heat and high in our direction more often that an atlantic westerly ie rain!! Sorry I am a novice and just going on observing the weather charts from forecasts through the years.....

Anyway here is what metcheck said:-

Unsettled Next Week

Added : Fri 12 April : 08:42 BST

Some unsettled weather for the UK next week as the Atlantic returns back to its normal grumpy self. Signs also that the jet stream is starting to migrate North with the hope of some decent weather during April. However, the models are still tempted to bring back the Northern blocking next weekend and into the following week.

Still a long way away, but if the blocking does return then depending on where high pressure sits in relation to the UK could spell a half decent summer for many of us.

Anyway, we digress. Low pressure firmly in control of the weather next week with systems rattling in from the Atlantic bringing strong winds and rain. No real concerns just yet, but one thing we are keeping an eye on is the risk of slow moving frontal systems straggling across Western areas bringing the potential of up to 75mm of rain over the next 7-9 days.

Just a heads up. We will be watching the situation over the weekend and into next week.

Metcheck Tools

Edited April 12, 2013 by TwisterGirl81

[dec10snow]

The showers seem to be easing in Exeter, the main band passed through in the middle of the night which is why I can't tell you what that was like

I read this on the Metcheck website this morning though, it sounds interesting for Summer? But I don't understand if Northern Blocking happens in Summertime, wouldn't that mean a cool summer as appose to a warm summer? Or does it mean that if it were placed in a certain area ie Scandinia it would bring the continental heat and high in our direction more often that an atlantic westerly ie rain!! Sorry I am a novice and just going on observing the weather charts from forecasts through the years.....

Anyway here is what metcheck said:-

Unsettled Next Week

Added : Fri 12 April : 08:42 BST

Some unsettled weather for the UK next week as the Atlantic returns back to its normal grumpy self. Signs also that the jet stream is starting to migrate North with the hope of some decent weather during April. However, the models are still tempted to bring back the Northern blocking next weekend and into the following week.

Still a long way away, but if the blocking does return then depending on where high pressure sits in relation to the UK could spell a half decent summer for many of us.

Anyway, we digress. Low pressure firmly in control of the weather next week with systems rattling in from the Atlantic bringing strong winds and rain. No real concerns just yet, but one thing we are keeping an eye on is the risk of slow moving frontal systems straggling across Western areas bringing the potential of up to 75mm of rain over the next 7-9 days.

Just a heads up. We will be watching the situation over the weekend and into next week.

Metcheck Tools

Firstly, don't trust metcheck!!!!!!!!

Well, I'm not very good with any of this either, but i think it depends on the exact positioning of the high... Because if we had the blocking high we've had this winter for example, I believe that would bring cooler than average temperatures. I'm not sure exactly where the high would have to be positioned if it was up north to bring warmer weather.

I'm sure someone else can explain it better than me though!!

Ah, supacell is probably right... Ignore me

Edited April 12, 2013 by dec10snow

[Supacell]

 

I read this on the Metcheck website this morning though, it sounds interesting for Summer? But I don't understand if Northern Blocking happens in Summertime, wouldn't that mean a cool summer as appose to a warm summer? Or does it mean that if it were placed in a certain area ie Scandinia it would bring the continental heat and high in our direction more often that an atlantic westerly ie rain!! Sorry I am a novice and just going on observing the weather charts from forecasts through the years.....

I would take a guess at, where northern blocking brings cold weather in winter due to easterly winds coming off a COLD continent, the same northern blocking would bring warmer weather in summer due to the same easterly winds coming off a HOT continent. Easterly winds are also dry, which would mean a lot of dry and sunny weather for most.

Unfortunately this set up would bring a lot of cloud into eastern coastal areas in early summer, but this would likely be less of a factor as we move through summer and the sea temperatures start to rise.

Not a problem for you guys in the SW, CS areas though - for you easterly winds would be a great direction in the summer months.

Edited April 12, 2013 by Supacell

[galacticwarrior]

I would like sunny, but not DRY, because I need storms and if I don't get my daily dose of storms I will explode.

[noonoo418]

For the sake of myself and 30000 or so other people, I hope that we are able to stick to seasonal temperatures. Any hint of warmth towards the 21st would be of great concern!!

[TwisterGirl81]

 

For the sake of myself and 30000 or so other people, I hope that we are able to stick to seasonal temperatures. Any hint of warmth towards the 21st would be of great concern!!

How come? I for one would like to see summer start now and to be beautiful, do you need cool temps for your job or something?

[Mapantz]

Depending on how the blocking is situated, it would more than likely bring warmer weather, as someone has quite rightly pointed out, temperatures are warmer on the continent. 
If we had that blocking during the Russian heatwave of 2010, we'd have been melting too.

Currently 9.9°C and cloudy. 6.6mm of rain fell when that squally band passed over around 2:45am.

[swebby]

How come? I for one would like to see summer start now and to be beautiful, do you need cool temps for your job or something?

London Marathon is on the 21st, coolish and overcast would be the prefered weather for the runners.

[gottolovethisweather]

London Marathon is on the 21st, coolish and overcast would be the prefered weather for the runners.

 

Can you read noonoo's mind or are you "in the know".    The original post did confuse me somewhat too, but I didn't think of replying. Sounds plausible now, that he was talking of the London Marathon when you re-read it.

 

On the broader topic of the forecast, if Gibby is correct in his analysis of the 12z suites from yesterday, which I personally read much more into that any other suite of model runs, the latter part of next week looks warm or even briefly hot with potential for storms, prior to the main event (London Marathon). Nevertheless, we are talking about deep Fi here so a large pinch of salt is needed. Looking good for a warm-up and a drier spell come midweek though, is how we can view things at this stage with a fair bit of confidence, I'd say.

Edited April 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[swebby]

Can you read noono's mind or are you "in the know".    The original post did confuse me somewhat too, but I didn't think of replying.

Tis an educated guess based on why 30000 people would not want to see sun and warmth on the 21st. That is assuming that is what noonoo is referring to?

On the topic of northern blocking in the summer - dependent on where the high pressure is located but this can be a very bad thing for the uk. There was plenty of northern blocking in the (summers) washouts of 2007 and 2012 and we do not need a repeat of those! Big fat azores high ridging into north western europe by early june would do me (and the SW) nicely.

[Andy Bown]

I had forgotten what a blustery, showery WNW flow on the back end of a LOW pressure was like!

[Nights King]

This weekend is looking like a larry let down again...   

 

met office app has 10c for sunday

[AWD]

This weekend is looking like a larry let down again...

met office app has 10c for sunday

Come to Bristol, my Met App says 14c on Sunday, although cloudy too as expected.

[Bumpkin]

Apparently we will make it up to 11c at the weekend with rain and cloudiness.  I noticed a conversation on previous pages on Northern blocking in the summer.  Firstly don't take too much notice of Metcheck and secondly my understanding is that if the block pushes the jetstream south then we pull in cooler and wetter weather from the west/NW.  Last summer a high over Greenland forced the jetstream south, probably depends on the placement of the block.

[dec10snow]

This weekend is looking like a larry let down again...

met office app has 10c for sunday

Yep, the cold front seems to keep being pushed east so lower temperature for the SE as well...

[Andy Bown]

I was chatting to somebody on the phone earlier who is from Portishead, he was talking about pebble sized hail yesterday pm/eve!

[Nights King]

Come to Bristol, my Met App says 14c on Sunday, although cloudy too as expected.

Have another look my friend...

I have Bristol on mine so I can keep an eye on it and it has max of 12c if you click on day with heavy rain...

9c/10c max for me now grrrr

Edited April 12, 2013 by mullender83

[George]

Lovely end to the day with clear blue skies. Weekend looking like a wash out, heavy rain most of the day tomorrow and the whole of sunday, great!

[Costa Del Fal]

Saturday: Mild but wet and breezy for Kernow and Channel Islands

 

Cornwall's Forecast: http://www.cciweather.co.uk/#/cornwall/4573724902

Channel Islands Forecast: http://www.cciweather.co.uk/#/channel-islands/4573977985

 

70 Followers @kernowweather

[snowdog]

Heavier rain just started here in Broadstone.Looks like it will be here for the rest of the afternoon/evening according to the radar.

Edited April 13, 2013 by snowdog