Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Purga]

I am sure that really confuses the person asking the question. I am sure 1 ensemble member way off in willy wonka world is of no real use.

Please read what I posted and note: 'A pipe dream really but still a faint option.'

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Please read what I posted and note: 'A pipe dream really but still a faint option.'

Yep i read it properly. Still of no real use LOL

[Purga]

TBH i don't think even the mildies straw clutch this much by showing the NAVGEM LOL

It is a valid model and this is the model output discussion thread I believe?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It is a valid model and this is the model output discussion thread I believe?

Yes of course, just made me chuckle with the straw clutching. I don't think there is much of a chance of the NAVGEM being correct over every other model.

Edited April 2, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Captain Shortwave]

Talking of straw clutch models here's a wind lovers straw clutch. BOM

Brazilian unlike the location never gets warm

[rory o gorman]

Good news from the the U.S with the spc backing a strong change in the longwave pattern early next week with ridging on the eastern seaboard, and yes severe weather on the plains

[Purga]

Yes of course, just made me chuckle with the straw clutching. I don't think there is much of a chance of the NAVGEM being correct over every other model.

Me neither, just enjoying the model output anyway pleased to make you smile Mr No Balls - now we had best stop before we get into trouble - LOL

[Tamara]

There does seem to be quite a lot of support among the ECM members for that deep atlantic low in a week or so time - although some variations of the theme too.

.

It is conceivable at that distance that the low which is ejected from a portion of vortex over Canada is rather exaggerated and might be less deep than suggested by the operational as time comes nearer, but on the basis that this incredible cold spell had to end sometime, then a breakdown finally seems quite likely from later next weekend.

The question is whether some sort of residual mid latitude ridging may hold for a day or so longer than suggested to keep some fine weather going for a day or so longer, but that probably is just a delay in unsettled weather (to an extent that is uncertain) coming in from the west. A pity as I am sure many would prefer such an inevitable eventual breakdown in the cold weather to be to continued dry and pleasant weather after so much rain over recent months

[shaky]

Good news from the the U.S with the spc backing a strong change in the longwave pattern early next week with ridging on the eastern seaboard, and yes severe weather on the plains

What does that mean!!

[rory o gorman]

What does that mean!!

means the pattern in the whole northern hemisphere is about to change. MJO changing phase

[Summer Sun]

GFS is developing 2 deep lows in the Atlantic at t108

Its going to be interesting to see where they end up

GFS is now taking a different route still miles apart from ECM though as the northern blocking extends down to the UK forcing the lows back

ECM for the same time on its 00z run

Edited April 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS is developing 2 deep lows in the Atlantic at t108

Its going to be interesting to see where they end up

GFS is now taking a different route still miles apart from ECM though as the northern blocking extends down to the UK forcing the lows back

ECM for the same time on its 00z run

GFS more blocked up to 120, with less energy going N

[Snowstorm1]

Wondered why the run was taking so long to come out then remembered its BST now oh...

[Summer Sun]

UKMO at t120 is taking a milder route compared to GFS this ties in with there thoughts of milder air moving in this weekend on the lunch time news on BBC 1

GFS at t120

Wondered why the run was taking so long to come out then remembered its BST now oh...

Just a reminder for everyone who is unsure of the new output times for BST you can find them here - http://forum.netweat...s/#entry2213708

Edited April 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[Captain Shortwave]

The differences over Greenland from the GFS in this run and the 06z is laughable. Where is the GFS going with this.

[Summer Sun]

12z (left) is far more blocked when compared to the 00z run (right)

UKMO at t144 is also going the milder, wetter, windier route

Warm and settled for anyone heading to Spain or Portugal next week with the Azores getting its act together

Edited April 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Residual heights left over Greenland and the Azores high wanting to ridge towards them. Where is the GFS going with this?

Certainly different to the 6z so far

[Summer Sun]

Residual heights left over Greenland and the Azores high wanting to ridge towards them. Where is the GFS going with this?

Certainly different to the 6z so far

Looking like a ridge of HP at t240 may force the low north

EDIT it does indeed force it north

Edited April 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[Captain Shortwave]

Residual heights left over Greenland and the Azores high wanting to ridge towards them. Where is the GFS going with this?

Certainly different to the 6z so far

To be honest given the set-up when you remove the low resolution output, you would expect a cold limpet trough over the UK, Atlantic blocked and heights over Russia, nowhere for the low to go. Cool and showery with a chance of a colder Arctic flow establishing again.

Note- this is just based off the hi-res output of this one run from one model, not what is actually going to happen

Edited April 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SE Blizzards]

Snow event in 10 days time from the GFS? I thought it was supposed to be getting milder?

This is why many people have no time for the GFS after day 5/6. Cannon fodder!!

[mushymanrob]

To be honest given the set-up when you remove the low resolution output, you would expect a cold limpet trough over the UK, Atlantic blocked and heights over Russia, nowhere for the low to go. Cool and showery with a chance of a colder Arctic flow establishing again.

.... except the teleconnections do not support that, all of which suggest pattern change, not pattern interupt!

Snow event in 10 days time from the GFS? I thought it was supposed to be getting milder?

This is why many people have no time for the GFS after day 5/6. Cannon fodder!!

itll change next run no doubt. it was showing some southern heat in fi earlier, i guess thats gone too...

[SE Blizzards]

.... except the teleconnections do not support that, all of which suggest pattern change, not pattern interupt!

itll change next run no doubt. it was showing some southern heat in fi earlier, i guess thats gone too...

Yes, the differences between each run on the GFS at the moment is ridiculous. I seriously can't take that model seriously anymore (if that makes sense)!

Edited April 2, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[Purga]

Not too bad a run from GFS 12z with the hnt again of an easterly in FI

Before that the LP off Newfoundland showing signs of a southward displacement

If it continues we may see some energy going under the block instead of it all riding over.

Pressure wanting to build back north at 288hrs and bring a cold northerly

[Captain Shortwave]

.... except the teleconnections do not support that, all of which suggest pattern change, not pattern interupt!

I was just commenting on crewecold's comment, which only relates to this one run which of course looks out of kilter with pretty much all other info going.

[Purga]

.... except the teleconnections do not support that, all of which suggest pattern change, not pattern interupt!

How often has that proved to be as wrong as the models? It's only another representation of the same data that goes into the models only with a fancy name.

Anyway this looks like fun for the SE

NAVGEM the cold connoisseur's model of choice still bullish about the cold holding on..

Edited April 2, 2013 by Purga