Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM is pretty similar to UKMO and ECM (this morning) outputs

[rory o gorman]

yep you got it purga snow is for sure coming .... and in real life good convection setups on the gfs today , surface heating creating some good laspes may be in our future

[Purga]

yep you got it purga snow is for sure coming .... and in real life good convection setups on the gfs today , surface heating creating some good laspes may be in our future

It never snows in Cork Rory so don't worry - LOL

[phil nw.]

It`s been a lovely sunny crisp day here today and It looks like this chilly and dry spell is here until the weekend under the cold High with night frosts a continuing prospect.

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?02-18

the cold easterly wind across the south gradually dying away as the high sinks down the country.

Then a prospect of a more unsettled period looks more likely next week as the jet eases north towards the UK with low pressure moving in from the Atlantic.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?02-18

Something from the west -not a common theme over the last several weeks.If nothing else it will lift the temperatures nearer to average.

[Bradowl]

It never snows in Cork Rory so don't worry - LOL

Oh yes it does, Saturday December 17th 2010, went to Cork to celebrate my birthday and there was about 5 hours of heavy snow giving a good covering.

Edited April 2, 2013 by Bradowl

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Oh yes it does, Saturday December 17th 2010, went to Cork to celebrate my birthday and there was about 5 hours of heavy snow giving a good covering.

you mean friday 17th or Sat 18th? Sat 18th was good here

[SP1986]

The NAO as I understand it, does not cause the GFS outputs, but the NAO is a product of the model outputs, therefore, it could easily change back to negative (-NAO) and to my mind that's in a way what the GFS 12z moves back towards. As to whether we move to a outlook showing average temperatures, well I think that's 50/50 at the moment. The 12z shows pretty much below average temperatures throughout!

We can't really say its going against anything though as it actually may be correct!

[weather_it_will]

Still plenty of cold weather about in the ensembles, even in FI, so nothing for mild fans to celebrate just yet.

A few of the ensemble members going for a return to much colder weather at the end of the 12z run

Edited April 2, 2013 by Deep Freeze

[Purga]

Still plenty of cold weather about in the ensembles, even in FI, so nothing for mild fans to celebrate just yet.

A few of the ensemble members going for a return to much colder weather at the end of the 12z run

Yes, as I noted with the previous ENS diagrams, after a brief warm up things look like cooling down again in FI with some pretty cold options showing aagin.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

[weather_it_will]

Yes, as I noted with the previous ENS diagrams, after a brief warm up things look like cooling down again in FI with some pretty cold options showing aagin.

http://www.meteociel...1&ville=Londres

We seem to be stuck in a never ending sine wave type loop of cold>less cold>cold>less cold.......cold weather.

Edited April 2, 2013 by Deep Freeze

[Cheshire Freeze]

The NAO as I understand it, does not cause the GFS outputs, but the NAO is a product of the model outputs, therefore, it could easily change back to negative (-NAO) and to my mind that's in a way what the GFS 12z moves back towards. As to whether we move to a outlook showing average temperatures, well I think that's 50/50 at the moment. The 12z shows pretty much below average temperatures throughout!

We can't really say its going against anything though as it actually may be correct!

I think the fact that 10-12C temperatures are being championed tells us something about how much our expectations of warmth have been dampened given the last month! I can recall looking at my digital thermometer many times in the early 00's when it was showing that sort of temperature in December.

Edited April 2, 2013 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

12 GFS ensembles show a clear upward trend next week before a slight drop around day 14

[IanR]

I think the fact that 10-12C temperatures are being championed tells us something about how much our expectations of warmth have been dampened given the last month! I can recall looking at my digital thermometer many times in the early 00's when it was showing that sort of temperature in December.

I remember walking through Manchester city centre sometime in the very early '00's during mid April in a notable warm spell and there was a digital thermometer on the side of a building reading 28c , can you imagine that now in April, how things have changed,

[Summer Sun]

ECM has finally picked up on the deep low off the eastern seabed now more in line with UKMO

T144 again more in line with UKMO now

The low continues to track over the UK heights lower over Greenland just a case of waiting to see how quickly the Jet stream heads north now the quicker it does the short this unsettled spell will be

Edited April 2, 2013 by Gavin.

[Captain Shortwave]

T168, low going further South

residual heights to the north being added in nearer the time. As I expected.

Edited April 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

Well to my eyes it looks like this cold spell has been lengthened again slightly on the ecm and gfs compared to the morning runs!!

[Stuie]

Finally BBQ next week! Yay!

[Summer Sun]

Well to my eyes it looks like this cold spell has been lengthened again slightly on the ecm and gfs compared to the morning runs!!

Not really this morning less cold air was shown to arrive on the 8th tonight it still is

[shaky]

Not really this morning less cold air was shown to arrive on the 8th tonight it still is

Colder air looks further west and the mild sector in the atlantic is a lot smaller!!

[Tim Bland]

Finally BBQ next week! Yay!

Could be some leading edge snow for some from that!

[Captain Shortwave]

The low is less deep so better chance of seeing some decent shower activity, though it will still be cool

Mods please delete same post in ranting thread, I posted there by accident

[phil nw.]

Not really this morning less cold air was shown to arrive on the 8th tonight it still is

Yes have to agree with the models showing some lifting out of the colder uppers from the south from T144hrs.

http://www.meteociel...M0-144.GIF?02-0

It doesn,t look like any notable warmth yet but certainly surface temps will be higher than we have had for weeks.Of course it will be more unsettled with some rain or showers around in such a setup.

Edited April 2, 2013 by phil nw.

[Stuie]

Blimey model agreement, ECM/GFS. Gavin the ECM has backtracked after all ;-)

[Cheshire Freeze]

The low continues to track over the UK heights lower over Greenland just a case of waiting to see how quickly the Jet stream heads north now the quicker it does the short this unsettled spell will be

The thing is Gavin, who is to say the jet will actually go as far north as you're hoping? It's quite feasible we'll pull it north to our latitude and barrell lows at us for the foreseeable?

[Panayiotis]

The low is less deep so better chance of seeing some decent shower activity, though it will still be cool

Mods please delete same post in ranting thread, I posted there by accident

Yes maybe some thunderstorms from that near the center of the low, back in March this chart brought thunderstorms for my location and places in the SW: