May 2013 CET Forecasts (2012-13 CET Competition)

[Roger J Smith]

CET statistics and trivia

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21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

 

Warmest months

 

1. 15.1 (1833) ... by a large margin the most decisive (1.2 deg) of the twelve warmest months2. 13.9 (1848)3. 13.8 (1788, 1758)5. 13.7 (1808)6. 13.6 (1992, 1727) ... This tied for sixth place is the weakest showing of any of the twelve calendar months for the modern (post 1960) era, the second least impressive modern showing is fifth place in January and June. However, for post-1980, June doesn't show up until 18th place. 

Averages

 

12.0 ... 2001-2012 average

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average, 2012 CET

11.6 ...

11.5 ...

11.4 ... 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-1700 average

11.1 ... 1801-1900 average

11.0 ...

 

Coldest Months

13. 9.1 (1996 tied with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

5.. 8.9 (1879, 1885, 1902)4.. 8.8 (1855)

3.. 8.7 (1817)

2.. 8.6 (1740)

1.. 8.5 (1698)

 

 

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

 

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Now for your predictions, and we'll add those to this table eventually.

 

 

[hillbilly]

10.4 and wet

[summer blizzard]

12.2C, 0.5C above the 1981-2010 average.

[Guest pjl20101]

Same as summer blizzard 12.2.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Looking at Roger's stats its interesting that the warmest ever and coldest ever daily means in May are less than 4C warmer than April's despite the greater increase in average monthly CET.

[IanR]

11c going for the continuing theme of below average, all my predictions have been below the average for that particular month.....and still been too high!

[Backtrack]

14.5C.

[feno13]

13.7c. please

[Snowstorm1]

13.8c

[CongletonHeat]

11.2

[BornFromTheVoid]

A graph of the May CET Values, with the linear trend in black and the 10 year rolling average in red.

 

[SteveB]

12.2c Please

[Lettucing Gutted]

15.5C

[NeilN]

13.5

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

12.5 plz

[syed2878]

i think may will start cold and warm up slowely rainfall i think will be avrage. So on that note i'm gona go for 12.2c.

[Summer Sun]

I think this could be our first above average month since December 2012 when we were 0.2c above average

 

The first few days could start cool but progressively warming up as we progress into the first full week of May

 

I want to go for 13c + but something keeps pulling me to just above average

 

I shall split the difference and go 12.5c

[Lake District Blizzard]

10.9c, wet NW, dry south

[Commander Occlusion]

11.4oC for the moment

[geoffw]

10.8

[Weather-history]

I think this could be our first above average month since December 2012 when we were 0.2c above average

Depends on what averages you use, against the 1971-2000 average, it was August 2012! That was the last one beyond argument.

[stewfox]

long time since we had a spot on average CET value so 12c for me.

[Alex]

12.7c for me - MJO phases 1-2-3 favour a more settled warm pattern.

[Mark Bayley]

I reckon an above average month is on the cards, so will plump for 12.4c

[mikeocarroll]

A cool 10.5C. I'm giving up hope of seeing a return to above average temperatures!