Scepticism Of Man Made Climate Change

[keithlucky]

Green energy gone mad!

/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/06/law-of-unintended-consequences-number-eleventy-zillion/

 

Edited August 6, 2013 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

New link for those who believe that weather is solar driven. http://t.co/5svwn0DQqp

Latest on solar cycle 24 the smallest solar cycle since solar cycle14 we need to worry about global cooling not global warming http://t.co/uwfpTLBkSs

 

Edited August 6, 2013 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

New link for those who believe that weather is solar driven. http://t.co/5svwn0DQqp

Latest on solar cycle 24 the smallest solar cycle since solar cycle14 we need to worry about global cooling not global warming http://t.co/uwfpTLBkSs

Just let me know when the cooling starts, keith!

[jethro]

Just let me know when the cooling starts, keith!

 

Depends on how you look at it.....The Sun has only recently gone quiet (last 6 years or so). AGW is supposed to drive temperatures ever higher, all projections/predictions foresaw us on a relentless warming path. The last 10 years or so have seen temperatures cease to climb, we've been vaguely on a plateau, perhaps slightly warming but nothing near the predicted rise. Either the climate isn't as reactive to CO2 as was thought, or it is the major driver some people propose it is, but that even a short period of quiet Solar activity, is enough to counteract the warming properties of CO2 to the point that meaningful warming has all but ceased.

 

If the Sun goes as quiet as many solar physicists expect it to, and the quiet period lasts for as long as many expect, in this part of the world, we will experience cold, snowy winters far more frequently than in recent decades.

[Crepuscular Ray]

The energy companies have for years been ignoring the future and reaping the profits, there has been next to no investment for the future and many of the power plants we currently rely upon are reaching the end of their life.

Then there's always the rumour that the big oil companies have spent millions on alternative - "greener" -  technologies but are sitting on the technology (and patents) until they've screwed every last buck out of the oil reserves and will bring the alternatives onstream only when they can ensure that they've got the rest of the planet over a barrel.

Edited August 6, 2013 by Crepuscular Ray

[jethro]

Then there's always the rumour that the big oil companies have spent millions on alternatives technologies but are sitting on the technology (and patents) until they've screwed every last buck out of the oil reserves and will bring the alternatives onstream only when they can ensure that they've got the rest of the planet over a barrel.

 

When it comes to big profits, nothing would surprise me. That said, there are more people in this world trying to develop alternative technology than just the oil companies. There's nothing to stop other people/companies developing them and beating the oil companies to it.

[VillagePlank]

When it comes to big profits, nothing would surprise me. That said, there are more people in this world trying to develop alternative technology than just the oil companies. There's nothing to stop other people/companies developing them and beating the oil companies to it.

 

Apart from ownership of patents, that is.

[Gray-Wolf]

Anyone knowing anything about the cost of gaining a 'watertight' patent will know it's not a thing for a small setup esp. where you are up against multibillion dollar opposition?

 

I find it easy to imagine folk being forced to let their patent slip ( due to the doubling costs each year) only for 'other parties' ( that can afford the outlay for no profit) to then take up the patent........

 

Saying is easy .......'doing' , once you know what you are talking about, a very different matter!

[keithlucky]

NOAA are in the pocket of the white house, report says Arctic sea ice disappearing at a unprecedented pace

Wrong! sad that they are turning their back on what is actually happening.http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

[jethro]

NOAA are in the pocket of the white house, report says Arctic sea ice disappearing at a unprecedented pace

Wrong! sad that they are turning their back on what is actually happening.http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

 

I'm not being funny Keith but your post above is a prime example of why it's so hard to have a serious discussion about climate change, from a sceptical perspective. Accusing NOAA of being in the pocket of the Whitehouse and trying to make out the Arctic ice isn't disappearing, really isn't the way to go if you want a proper discussion and the opportunity for us all to learn more. You're one of the first to pick folk up for exaggerating climate change or coming out with unsubstantiated twaddle - two wrongs don't make a right, you know. 

[SomeLikeItHot]

Then there's always the rumour that the big oil companies have spent millions on alternative - "greener" -  technologies but are sitting on the technology (and patents) until they've screwed every last buck out of the oil reserves and will bring the alternatives onstream only when they can ensure that they've got the rest of the planet over a barrel.

 

Well they can't be sitting on the patents as they would be public and therefore not secret, and also burning down their time when they grant exclusive use, Which being 20 years typically can be fairly short by they time they get perfected and commercialized. They could be sitting on secret technology however this offers them no protection from someone else developing similar ideas.

[mikeworst]

Watch  

[4wd]

The recent revelations that SKS seem to have a rather strange storm-trooper fetish has resulted in this.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QixI6uziV4

 

[4wd]

Data adjustment from SKS - simples! 



 

[UV-RAY]

Data adjustment from SKS - simples! 

 

Data adjustment/manipulation/fudged as been part and parcel of climate reconstruction for the last 30 years, it's a case of if the data doesn't suite the theory then the data has to be adjusted/manipulated/fudged.

[Methuselah]

Data adjustment/manipulation/fudged as been part and parcel of climate reconstruction for the last 30 years, it's a case of if the data doesn't suite the theory then the data has to be adjusted/manipulated/fudged.

Mostly, but by no means entirely, by those desperate to deny it...IMO, such nonsense only damages the reputation of sceptical science? I do so hate to see my fellow sceptics shooting themselves in the foot head!

[UV-RAY]

Mostly, but by no means entirely, by those desperate to deny it...IMO, such nonsense only damages the reputation of sceptical science? I do so hate to see my fellow sceptics shooting themselves in the foot head!

I'm speaking on behalf of those scientists who've seen past temp records of their native countries adjusted Pete, maybe it's time you read scientific  literature that isn't so blinkered and one sided as you always assume I'm referring to Watts and co. Tut Tut!!!!

[Methuselah]

I'm speaking on behalf of those scientists who've seen past temp records of their native countries adjusted Pete, maybe it's time you read scientific  literature that isn't so blinkered and one sided as you always assume I'm referring to Watts and co. Tut Tut!!!!

I wasn't meaning you, SI; we may even be saying the same thing?

[VillagePlank]

Here's the CO₂ relationship with temperature. Pretty strong, if you ask me, and pretty much what the consensus is saying.

 

 

You can also see the width of the 'errors' (which might be down to measurement error, or just plain natural variation) by looking at the distance the dots are away from the line (residuals).

 

However, go along the horizontal axis and look at the temperature recorded at 400ppm. That's nearly outside the natural variation of anything previously recorded. As others have already said, it's not currently significant, but it is a worthy observation, that this relationship appears to be on the brink of being in very questionable territory.

 

EDIT: got the temp wrong. Doh!!

Edited August 10, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Methuselah]

And it's a genuine opportunity for some good sceptical science, IMO...Which I why I get so peed off with chasing Watts et al's red herrings; something real has caused this massive departure from expectations. But what??

[VillagePlank]

And it's a genuine opportunity for some good sceptical science, IMO...Which I why I get so peed off with chasing Watts et al's red herrings; something real has caused this massive departure from expectations. But what??

 

It's nearly sufficient to be outside our recorded history. It's not quite there, yet, but nearly. Of course, we could just be seeing the right bottom end of natural variation, and next year (or whatever) it could return to within 'normal' bounds, but if it doesn't .... another observation is that the top three of the CO2 measurements are below the line ...

Edited August 10, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Methuselah]

And it's a genuine opportunity for some good sceptical science, IMO...Which I why I get so peed off with chasing Watts et al's red herrings; something real has caused this massive departure from expectations. But what??

Maybe not so massive after all? You sure got me there!

[VillagePlank]

Maybe not so massive after all? You sure got me there!

 

I used a monthly anomaly, instead of annual one. Whoops!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the CO₂ relationship with temperature. Pretty strong, if you ask me, and pretty much what the consensus is saying.

 

co2_temp.png

 

You can also see the width of the 'errors' (which might be down to measurement error, or just plain natural variation) by looking at the distance the dots are away from the line (residuals).

 

However, go along the horizontal axis and look at the temperature recorded at 400ppm. That's nearly outside the natural variation of anything previously recorded. As others have already said, it's not currently significant, but it is a worthy observation, that this relationship appears to be on the brink of being in very questionable territory.

 

EDIT: got the temp wrong. Doh!!

 

Might be interesting if you colour coded the yearly values based on their ENSO state, (with maybe a 3 or 4 month lag)?

[VillagePlank]

Might be interesting if you colour coded the yearly values based on their ENSO state, (with maybe a 3 or 4 month lag)?

 

Not interested in that, to be honest; adding degrees of freedom makes my brain ache!