Scepticism Of Man Made Climate Change

[john pike]

hi pm

 

i see your posting expert analysis

 

plus this  should be in the agw thread not here

[VillagePlank]

 

Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This

difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and

internal climate variability.

 

 

 

... such an inconsistency is only expected to occur by chance once in 500 years ...

 

http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Climate%20model%20results/over%20estimate.pdf

Edited September 16, 2013 by Sparkicle

[keithlucky]

Un IPPC quote "Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, in contrast to the small increasing trend in observations… There is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent.’  The answer the Antarctic is getting colder!http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Global-warming-just-HALF-said-Worlds-climate-scientists-admit-computers-got-effects-greenhouse-gases-wrong.html

Edited September 16, 2013 by keithlucky

[4wd]

I think the Met Office have lost the plot.
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/met-office-in-the-mail-on-sunday/

The commenters are having none of it.

This is spot on:
 

 

Gerry Morrow (@GerryMorrow) (07:32:13) :

Oh dear, no mention of the plethora of scientific papers using observations and empirical evidence to show your sensitivity is wildly pessimistic. This is what happens when an organisation moves from science to advocacy, cherries get picked. You are going to be in trouble with the politicos in the very near future.

 

The Met Office seems to be in the hands of activists for several years now, and they have built an extraordinary edifice around the doomed planet climate catastrophe nonsense. 

[VillagePlank]

A tripling of CO2 to add only 1.2C

Edited September 17, 2013 by Sparkicle

[UV-RAY]

A tripling of CO2 to add only 1.2C

I would put it down as much less that that Sparkicle as we are working on assumptions of feedbacks we have barely scratched the surface off and the ones we do are being underestimated, such as ENSO.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[keithlucky]

Interesting on comments on how weak solar cycle 24 is and how it could effect upcoming winter.  http://t.co/RfJ8MX1Arj

Edited September 17, 2013 by keithlucky

[Polar Maritime]

Interesting on comments on how weak solar cycle 24 is and how it could effect upcoming winter.  http://t.co/RfJ8MX1Arj

 

Thanks for that,very interesting !  I will post it in the Solar thread as relevant there to 

[Methuselah]

Interesting on comments on how weak solar cycle 24 is and how it could effect upcoming winter.  http://t.co/RfJ8MX1Arj

Could be that the Sun saves the day, keith?

[john pike]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6290228.stm

Odd that the sun cannot cause the temps to rise because of co2

But the co2 does not seem to work when the sun is weak

Maybe its just me

[keithlucky]

New report of rapid ice growth this year http://t.co/Ge4jdDRHBl

Edited September 17, 2013 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6290228.stm

Odd that the sun cannot cause the temps to rise because of co2

But the co2 does not seem to work when the sun is weak

Maybe its just me

I'll buy that, in the very short term; but, over many years? Of course the sun's output affects global climate; it's where >99.9% of our heat comes from...So JP, it is not only you...

[keithlucky]

Could be that the Sun saves the day, keith?

Linked to that the Sunspot activity has dropped to its lowest of the year  http://t.co/O9eTs3Fmut

[VillagePlank]

Solar UV - of which sunspots are a good proxy - are known to affect the distribution of air masses around the Atlantic, potentially driving the Atlantic Multidecadel Oscillation, which is known to be correlated to climate.

[keithlucky]

Greenland get warmer ,NOT!Temperatures fall to -40c.Time and time again we have been told that nowhere is warming faster than the ArcticGreenland melting was rapidly approaching tipping point,now the global warming doom and gloom merchants need to eat there words.Not only has the Arctic seen its coldest summer to date the Arctic has kept last winters ice and has jumped 60%,and news that Greenland has already reached -40. http://www.markvoganweather.com/2013/09/16/greenland

Edited September 20, 2013 by keithlucky

[john pike]

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/about_antarctica/geography/rock/volcanoes.php

[keithlucky]

Remember the great Petermann Glacial demise picture released by NASA in 2000 showing a chunk of ice which calved of the Petermann  glacier showing how GW is causing the melt in Greenland?

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/petermann-calve.html

Here how it looks today   

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?map=-487207.970008,-1067531.400359,-44327.970008,-852747.400359&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413&time=2013-09-19&switch=arctic

Edited September 21, 2013 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

Remember the great Petermann Glacial demise picture released by NASA in 2000 showing a chunk of ice which calved of the Petermann  glacier showing how GW is causing the melt in Greenland?

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/petermann-calve.html

Here how it looks today   

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?map=-487207.970008,-1067531.400359,-44327.970008,-852747.400359&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413&time=2013-09-19&switch=arctic

Nice summer-to-winter contrast there, Keith...

[Gray-Wolf]

I think you need look at the teams/specialists in this glacier KL? The most 'sceptical' of the experts ,post the '4 times manhattan island calve, took a different view with the last major calve which took the ice front well into virgin territory ( closer to the 'lip' entering the inner Greenland basin).

 

As Pete rightly illuminates 'sea ice' ,in the fjord beyond the glacier, fills the open water over winter and it is only in summer that we get open water there? This window of opportunity is what is used to get ships in to deploy the equipment with which we monitor the behaviour.

 

Had the glacier front advanced into Nares we'd have all been hearing plenty about it believe me!!!!

[keithlucky]

Nice summer-to-winter contrast there, Keith...

Wrong Boy Named Sue look at the dates August21, is August part of the Arctic winter?

Edited September 22, 2013 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

Wrong Boy Named Sue look at the dates August21, is August part of the Arctic winter?

Fairy snuff, keith ...But I still don't see what it has to do with AGW - one way or t'other; are any two years ever the same?

[Gray-Wolf]

That's not the point Pete, KL is still looking at sea ice and calling it 'glacier'. Seeing as one is 2m thick and the other hundreds of metres thick it's a tad naughty to try and have folk believe that such an immense amount of ice could just materialise at the head of the Fjord?

 

The calving front is a few tens of metres in front of it's position last Sept and new crevasses ( new calving fronts ) are being plotted even further up the glacier hinting at even more retreat beyond the last big calve.

 

KL is either confused or not playing with a straight bat. If the latter then neither here or the other place should let such go unchallenged.

[Methuselah]

But I got my facts wrong, Ian...

[Gray-Wolf]

But that which brought out your faux pas was incorrect or misleading. Two wrongs don't make a right.

[Methuselah]

I'm not sure that the photographs, per se, are misleading, Ian; what clearly is misleading is the way in which we make invalid assumptions and extrapolations based on them...Assumptions such as the one I, myself proceeded to make...