Chase Day 13 - Moderate Risk (OK/TX/AR)

[Paul Sherman]

Okay this is obviously hard to do seeing as what went on yesterday and the heartbreaking news over the scanners, radios out here, we watched that Storm from a distance of 5 miles initiate, one or two of the guests even have pictures of the vertical updraught as it was going up at about 230pm yesterday, we initially went North for it and could have easily intercepted but when Tornado Emergencys are issued in a built up area we cannot take the risk in getting stuck in traffic, the 2 storms below it were also tornado warned so stayed south.

 

Onto today and as hard as it is trying to get our heads around even thinking about chasing even if we can give any lead time or help/warning to people we will be out there chasing today, another Moderate Risk and this time the very real threat of Long Tracked Strong Tornadoes exists near the DFW Metroplex, I am hoping and praying that things are not as strong as Monday and also stays away from populated areas today.

 

Storms are expected to erupt along a near stationery Cold Front draped from SW Arkansas across the Red River Valley and into North Central Texas from 12 Noon, this will be another very long day, with 4,000jkg of cape and a rich moisture laden warm sector Supercells with very large hail and tornadoes are possible.

 

Will be leaving Ardmore at 1030am and head south on I-35 To get into position.

 

Regards

 

Paul S

[lorenzo]

Wishing you and the team a safe day Paul.

[Aunt Sally]

Good luck Paul and team today. The terrible,terrible news of the devastation and loss of life in Moore is all over the news here in the UK this morning. Just seen some pictures on the news and it is heartbreaking.

Stay safe out there, it sounds like today may be difficult to.

Aunt sally

[Team Jo]

Be careful folks, will be watching the stream and updates x

[nsrobins]

You were very wise to keep out of the suburbs Paul. Being in a car equiped with internet and realtime data doesn't mean anything when you're stuck in traffic with no way out, like those poor people on Santa Fe Ave and the I35 when the wedge passed over. The live stream from the News9 chopper was incredible and horrific in equal measure.

 

The three day episode extends into a fourth day as the disturbance stalls across the southern Plains. Initiation could be hard to define this evening given the variation between NAM and RAP on overlay of instability and shear, but on surface vectors I'd go for a corridor between Greenville and Paris, TX on theNorthern edge of the Mod risk area which if extended brings the DFW metro into play.
Conditions will need careful monitoring through the day as there is a risk of supercells passing over the metroplex - and as we discovered last night and on numerous occasions recently (Tuscaloosa, Joplin), the results can be devastating.

Watching a tornado roll across open grassland from a safe distance is an awesome experience. Experiencing one cut a swathe of destruction through a city is not.

 

[Cookie]

stay safe.

[SteveB]

Tough decision going chasing again today after what happened yesterday - but I think the right one. If I was there I would almost certainly what to go chasing again.

 

Good luck.

[simon-ferndown]

best of luck today Team out in the field so to speak.

[Paul Churchley]

I too think chasing today is the right decision for several reasons... firstly, the people on the tour have spent a lot of money getting there and so the tour should go ahead if at all possible and if the tour members wish it to. The second reason is that the more people out there that know about storms and tornadoes the better the warnings that can be given to help keep others safe. Paul and his crew are experienced and having experienced eyes and ears out there can only help in my opinion.

I am feeling now that providing that the chasing is done with safety in mind and with respect for the emergency services needs and the victims privacy then the chase is better happening than not happening... it seems to me from everything I have seen that Paul and his crew are doing precisely that and I have absolutely no worries now about joining tour 4 now.

 

Stay safe guys and gals.

[lukuus]

Hi Paul,

 

I am a reporter at the Echo newspaper in Southend - I believe you have spoken to us in the past.

 

In light of what is happening in Oklahoma and your 'storm chasing' it would be great to speak with you today about your experiences over there.

 

Would you be able to give me a call on 01268 469337 for a couple of minutes. Otherwise send me a number on luke.lambert@nqe.com and I can call you. If you are unable to talk could you email me some comments about your time over there and how this ranks in comparison to previous experiences. It is 13:35 UK time and I am here until 21:00. Please let me know.

 

Thank you

[w.wilson]

To All 

 

Take care, stay safe.

[IanM]

Nobody wanted to see this MD issued today - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0749.html

 

"STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
ALSO INTERSECTS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A DAMAGING MCS. WIND GUSTS
OVER HURRICANE FORCE...WIND DRIVEN HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND FORWARD PROPAGATES ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF NRN TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING."

 

 

Initiation is expected in the next couple of hours

 

We can only hope that the worst is confined to open land with no further loss of life or injury.

[nsrobins]

Effectively initiation is already underway with the advancing complex now edging into the Red River area. The greatest tornado risk is with discrete cells ahead of this area and HRRR has these developing DFW to Arkadelphia from 17Z - very soon!
19Z hodo for Mt Pleasant is crazy with a double looped figure of 8 - don't see that very often - suggesting a wicked shimmy with height. With lapse rates in excess of 9 and SRH again above 250 by 20Z a dangerous few hours coming up ahead of the main line which in itself could contain some very strong downbursts and SLWs.
Safe chasing chaps.

[Dan the Man]

Wish you all the best of luck. Stay safe; just a harsh reminder of how Mother Nature can strike such a cruel blow.

[Paul Churchley]

Watch Issued at 1025 CDT

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 201   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1025 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013      THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A      * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF      SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA     NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS      * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1025 AM UNTIL     700 PM CDT.      * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS       TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE      THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF   ABILENE TEXAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS.  FOR A   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...      REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.      &&      DISCUSSION...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE   TURNING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM   DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A SURFACE   COLD FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WW AREA.  THE   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SITUATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER MAY   BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE   SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED   TORNADOES.  DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING   SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL   TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS   NORTHERN TEXAS.  ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE   QUESTION.      AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.

[Arron]

Okay we're off and heading south from Ardmore to somewhere probably between Gainsville and Denton. Ingredients are there for a repeat of yesterday but fingers crossed it stays over open land. Early initiation again today so will be a quick pit stop for fuel and food

[Roger J Smith]

Would agree that tornadic development appears imminent from cells now to the west of Graham TX heading towards Gainesville TX near the I-35 by about noon to 1220 CDT (currently 1100h), after that, potential for major development in regions to northeast running through and to southwest of DFW metroplex. Let's hope that today's storms remain over less populated areas but the region at risk is heavily populated. There are also severe storms developing along an inverted trough feature in western OK heading for the OKC region which will hamper the recovery efforts.

Edited May 21, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[Chris K]

Just wanted to say good luck. I can't imagine how hard it is after yesterday, but storm chasers often give valuable and potentially life saving information and help to people living over there, who perhaps cross their paths or check forums such as this.

Enjoy the natural awe if anything happens, but I will add myself to the list of people saying that I hope there is not a repeat of yesterday in populated areas. Stay safe!

[Gorky]

Good luck today and stay safe. We are gonna stick it out up in OKC. All chased out for now and need a couple of rest days before we are back in the panhandle most likely

[Team Jo]

Stay safe folks & good luck! x

[Arron]

Stream up and running to, getting lunch in Denton

[Arron]

Heading to Denton to gas up then probably SW towards Weatherford

[Dan the Man]

Edit: Oops, should read the screen properly!

Edited May 21, 2013 by Dan the Man

[nsrobins]

Obviously attention is on the line Mineral Wells to Abilene which may start to squall out, but I still think DFW to Mt Pleasant to Texakarna is where discrete cells are more likely in the next three hours and the shear is really severe here.
Time will tell but for embedded rain-wrapped circulations stay west; for discrete supercells capable of tornados, look towards the Arkalatex. Just an opinion of course.

[Arron]

Gasing up in Decatur...