Chase Day 13 - Moderate Risk (OK/TX/AR)

[Paul]

Good luck today all, stay safe...

[chionomaniac]

Yes good luck all.

 

Will be interesting to see if a derecho develops and if it does you could get some good pics of a possible shelf cloud. Whatever happens, try and avoid chasing in built up areas (DFW).

[dallas]

Anyone got any links for live news in DFW akin to the Ok ones from last night?

 

Going to keep my eye on Plano as I have family living there.

Edited May 21, 2013 by dallas

[PolarWarsaw]

Yep CNN has stopped covering this now, so do we have any weather streams or news streams that are covering today's events live?

[chionomaniac]

Today is looking very messy already - supercells embedded in a fast moving CF or trough with no clear air ahead of the trough looks to make life difficult. Already we can see high topped cells embedded into the front in OK on the latest sat.

 

 

On a purely keeping safe chase, I would probably want to chase south of DFW around Hillsboro and then chase to the east - terrain allowing that is.

[chionomaniac]

First tornado warned area far east of TX near New Boston

[samadamsuk]

hey all.

 

Looking at the current situ, I don't see anything tornadic near the main line - winds aren't backed and wont become from what I can see - makes sense that the TN threat is more towards the Texarkana area - unless anything can form on an ofb ahead of the cold front, but I don't believe so - happy for someone to counter this view though, as I'm not the worlds best forecaster!

 

cheers, Samos

[Nick L]

I'm currently going through Dallas, will be very difficult to try and pin point discrete cells today, if any. I think the tornado risk has significantly decreased but we shall see. Grim day nontheless. Hoping we can get something on the southern end of the line.

[Paul]

Glad you're ok Nick

[Nick L]

Glad you're ok Nick

 

Thanks. We were in Moore just an hour earlier, we were at the 7-11 in which a few people were killed. Really is harrowing. Was even speaking to a guy at Carl's Jr about the 1999 tornado. Glad we were nowhere near it, would have gained no pleasure out of it. Our hotel was in S OKC, other than weak water pressure we were all fine. Just shocking that places I've driven past dozens of times no longer exist.

Edited May 21, 2013 by Nick L

[dallas]

live news cover DFw

 

http://www.wfaa.com/video?id=139367478&sec=553117

[Arron]

Right we're done for the day, this line is just advancing way to fast and is just one big mess. Heading towards the Texas panhandle to chill out for the evening and see if we can a see text tomorrow before the slight risk chase on Thursday

[Nick L]

Yeah we're bailing too. Driving conditions are vile and it's looking crap. Never mind, had to go for it really. Hopefully will get some decent lightning a little later.

[chionomaniac]

Right we're done for the day, this line is just advancing way to fast and is just one big mess. Heading towards the Texas panhandle to chill out for the evening and see if we can a see text tomorrow before the slight risk chase on Thursday

 

Probably a good idea after the last few hectic days. There still exists favourable conditions for tornados east of DFW but very messy and I think you guys need a break. Enjoy some downtime.

 

Edit - interesting cells developing to the SW of Lampasas

Edited May 21, 2013 by chionomaniac

[samadamsuk]

looks to be a derecho forming in the centre of that line to me - the book end cell to the south also going up rapidly, but I don't think its going to go tornadic - interesting though that winds are southerly to the bottom of that cell

 

cheers, Samos

[Nick F]

Surface analysis showing an outflow boundary from far NE Texas arcing through southern and eastern Arkansas. This appears to be where storms are likely to be more discrete ahead of the cold front further west, SPC hourly mesoscale anaylsis showing strong 0-1km SR Helicity over Sern AR atm:

Cold front SW-NE through DFW area, potential for tornadoes in this squall line, but if you want discrete supercells, Texas/Arkansas border area into Sern Arkansas looking best.

[Nick F]

Looks like DFW metroplex is just getting away with heavy rain, strong winds and lots of lightning from the cold front as it clears the eastern side of Dallas currently. I guess the threat for dangerous supercells will now be towards Sern Arkansas where we have the OFB and more in the way of cloud clearance/high temps and DPs upwind over Louisiana and SE Texas.

Edited May 21, 2013 by Nick F

[samadamsuk]

southern cells looking interesting - has a low meso on it -

[nsrobins]

The cell on the SW tip of the line does have a broad circulation that needs watching - as do any tail end charlies in this sort of environment.

 

Yes Sam - Vortex Chasers are on it and it does look like a decent wall cloud.

Edited May 21, 2013 by nsrobins

[Boro Snow]

what links or radars are you looking at guys im new to this sorry for asking

[weather geek]

Motor safely

[samadamsuk]

hey Boro Snow -

 

SPC - Convective Outlook (Day1): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC - Meso Analysys - multiple parameters: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#

Modesl - RAP, NAM (Short Term, hourly) - GFS - Longer term: http://www.twisterdata.com/

Chaser TV: www.chasertv.com

Sattellite: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/

Radar (Coarse):http://www.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp

Current Surface Conditions - Full US:http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif

 

cheers, Samos

[Boro Snow]

hey Boro Snow -

 

SPC - Convective Outlook (Day1): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC - Meso Analysys - multiple parameters: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#

Modesl - RAP, NAM (Short Term, hourly) - GFS - Longer term: http://www.twisterdata.com/

Chaser TV: www.chasertv.com

Sattellite: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/

Radar (Coarse):http://www.wunderground.com/radar/map.asp

Current Surface Conditions - Full US:http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif

 

cheers, Samos

thanks much appreciated

Edited May 21, 2013 by Boro Snow

[samadamsuk]

WeatherNinja on chasertv just pointing at the shelf cloud of that line

[Boro Snow]

WeatherNinja on chasertv just pointing at the shelf cloud of that line

im watching chris conley the wallcloud is amazing thanks so much for the link

Edited May 21, 2013 by Boro Snow