Far North of England Regional Discussion: 21st May 2013 onwards

[Summer Sun]

a cloudy morning in darlo hopefully it will be a repeat of yesterday and the sun will burn the cloud away leaving a lovely afternoon/evening

 

Yep hoping thats the case I'd like to get another BBQ tonight hoping this cloud thins and burns away this afternoon I think it will its just a case of when

[Boro Snow]

cloudy and cool in darlo today, hopefully not much rain to come looking at the radar maybe a little drizzle then we could get some nice sunny weather later in the day

Edited June 11, 2013 by Boro Snow

[Summer Sun]

Light rain in Darlo looking at the radar it should stay light and patchy

[Summer Sun]

It seems to be getting brighter again in Darlo I don't think that rain we got will have recorded

[Boro Snow]

It seems to be getting brighter again in Darlo I don't think that rain we got will have recorded

didnt even know it had rained everywhere is still bone dry

[Summer Sun]

didnt even know it had rained everywhere is still bone dry

 

We had a few spots around lunchtime but it didn't even dampen the surface tomorrow looks the best chance for some sunshine to break through for this part of the UK

[NL]

Interesting developments tomorrow regarding some potentially severe weather, possible tornadoes one or two long tracked if all the parameters come together at the right time. One to watch.

[Boro Snow]

Interesting developments tomorrow regarding some potentially severe weather, possible tornadoes one or two long tracked if all the parameters come together at the right time. One to watch.

really in our area

[Summer Sun]

really in our area

 

That has to belong to the storm chasing thread USA surely?!

[Boro Snow]

That has to belong to the storm chasing thread USA surely?!

yeah that's what I thought

[Boro Snow]

Lol no it's for our area. I follow durhamweather on Twitter and he's just said the same

[Boro Snow]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #019
ISSUED: 1430UTC TUESDAY 11TH JUNE 2013

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:
STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS - ENGLAND, WALES, NORTHERN IRELAND, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND
LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - ENGLAND, WALES
TORNADOES - EASTERN, SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 0600UTC UNTIL 2100UTC WEDNESDAY 12TH JUNE 2013

A ROBUST WARM AIRMASS WILL BE ENCOURAGED NORTHWARD FROM THE BISCAY AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHARPLY OVERSPREADING UPPER JETSTREAM AND STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS. DESTABILISATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT, TRIPLE POINT AND SOUTH OF THE JET NOSE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD STRONG CONVECTION IN A HIGHLY SATURATED PROFILE.

DISCUSSION: EARLY IN THE PERIOD, HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF ENGLAND, AS A WARMER THAN AVERAGE AIRMASS SURGES NORTHEAST. THE UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THIS PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION DESPITE ONLY SLIGHT INSTABILITY. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER NORTHERN IRELAND, WALES AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, WITH FURTHER INITIATION FROM THE RESURGENT JETSTREAM AND STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO WALES AND ENGLAND. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ELEVATED, DAYTIME HEATING AND A LONGER OVERLAND FETCH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS ALL PARTS OF ENGLAND AND PERHAPS SCOTLAND. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UK WILL BE AT GREATER RISK OF STRONGER CONVECTION, WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. ALL AREAS HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF TORNADOES, THOUGH AGAIN THIS RISK IS GREATER FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

[Summer Sun]

Well this may be a bit ott who knows one would have thought the met office would have had warnings out now if there was a realistic possibility of anything on that scale

[Boro Snow]

yeah i no i keep checking the met office site but these a few forecasters on twitter who are saying tommorrow could be interesting

[Summer Sun]

UKSAF warnings out

 

Status: Slight

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/247

 

Synopsis:

Two significant and deepening surface lows will cross western Britain during this forecast period, as they continue to dumbbell around a parent low situated south of Greenland. A strong jet will migrate northeastwards across southern Britain during the second half of the forecast period, while at the surface various bouts of moisture advection from the south will occur.

Discussion:

Difficult to pin-point any region over the U.K. with any significant convective potential, partly due to a very messy setup, but more largely due to changing multi-model frontal positions/features; indeed the 12z runs of several models have altered an otherwise relatively consistent story in comparison, so we continue to question whether this is a temporary phase which may revert back to the original forecast, or if the forecast is likely to continue to change overnight and through Wednesday. The most notable change is the delayed arrival of a secondary surface low/waving front over southern Britain by 2-3 hours compared to several previous multi-model runs.

For now, we will add areas/discussions based on current or 'earlier' thinking, with the proviso that modifications may be needed to both through Wednesday if the forecast evolution continues to change.

... SE SCOTLAND, FAR NE ENGLAND ...
Main focus for this area will be between 02z-08z, but stress a very low probability of lightning activity, hence no SLGT area. Forecast profiles are incredibly moist throughout the vertical, limiting instability somewhat, but it is possible in association with the northeastward-moving frontal system through the early morning for embedded elevated convection to develop/intensify. 30kts DLS would enable elevated convection to become reasonably well-organised as it continues to track from the Borders across the North Sea. Main threat, with PWAT values near 25mm, would be for locally large rainfall totals.

... E/NE SCOTLAND ...
Once the morning frontal rain clears the area, increased amounts of insolation should develop a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Local wind convergence (particularly along Moray and north Aberdeenshire coasts) and/or upslope flow may allow a few scattered showers to form during the afternoon, with perhaps some isolated lightning from any stronger cell.

... C/N IRELAND, SW NORTHERN IRELAND ...
Along/ahead of the second occlusion, some instability may develop over some parts with a few hundred J/kg CAPE possible (even if elevated). The potential exists for perhaps some embedded convection to develop, especially (for surface based potential) if surface wind convergence occurs ahead of approaching occlusion. Up to 50kts DLS (including 25-30kts LLS) would enable any convection to become organised, with perhaps a funnel or brief tornado given low LCLs.

... PENNINES, YORKSHIRE, N LINCOLNSHIRE ...
Prior to the 12z model runs, there was some reasonable consistency at least for the potential for isolated convection over this area. Cloud breaks are/were expected from late morning through the afternoon hours, allowing some insolation to improve surface temperatures (into the low 20s degC), while a dry intrusion is forecast in the mid-levels.
A few hundred J/kg CAPE is possible, when coupled with orographic forcing and low-level convergence may allow a few convective showers to form during the mid-late afternoon and early evening hours. Given strong DLS (40-50kts), if surface winds can become backed sufficiently then there is the potential for an isolated low-topped supercell with attendent threat of hail and perhaps a tornado.

However, 12z forecast soundings suggest less vertical directional shear compared to previous runs, and due to the later arrival of the second frontal wave the overlap of the dry intrusion, surface heating and jet aloft is displaced. Hence if this current forecast evolution remains then this SLGT area may be omitted at some stage during Wednesday due to the decreasing probability of occurrence.

... ELSEWHERE ...

It is worth noting that elsewhere, particularly some southern parts of Britain, may experience isolated lightning activity with any embedded convection on the second frontal wave during the late afternoon and evening hours, but point probability remains to low (i.e. unlikely to occur) to issue any further SLGT areas. Again with PWAT values in excess of 30mm the main threat will be locally large rainfall totals if embedded convection can form.

[Boro Snow]

Maybe a chance of a few storms today for the south of our region. Fingers crossed

[Summer Sun]

Yellow warning for rain issued

 

Issued at: 04:15 on Thursday 13th June 2013

Valid from: 11:00 on Thursday 13th Jun 2013

Valid to: 17:00 on Thursday 13 Jun 2013

Heavy showers and thunderstorms with hail are likely to develop later this morning and during the afternoon. The public should be aware of the risk of localised surface water flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Some intense showers and thunderstorms are likely, possibly becoming aligned in west to east bands. Large hail is also possible along with the risk of localised very squally winds in the south of the warning area. There is a risk of 10-20 mm of rain falling within an hour and up to 30 mm in less than 3 hours.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ne&fcTime=1371078000

 

 

[Boro Snow]

some heavy showers just passing north of darlo

[Boro Snow]

heavy shower in darlo

[P-M]

Something is brewing to the north of the region - maybe just heavy rain we shall see!

[seabreeze86]

The sky has gone black to my west, cant here any thunder and the moment but would be very surprised as the the radar echo is showing some some impressive returns.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like all the action is taking place further south currently Lincolnshire, parts of Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire are the hot spots for the storms

 

[Boro Snow]

how bizzare pouring down in the back garden dry as a bone in the front garden, must of been right on the edge of a shower

[Summer Sun]

Although we are now in this unsettled regime its not bad at all today its breezy but there is plenty of sunshine about

 

This time last year we had got 68mm of rain by the 14th one year one we have just 8mm to the same period

[Boro Snow]

looks like rain on the way in