Model Output Discussion 12z 23/05/13

[SnowObsessor90]

We don't need temps of 25c and above, temps of 19c 20c like this bank holiday weekend is perfectly good enough as long as we have lots of sunshine, maybe you want it a bit higher if you want to sunbathe i suppose

Meh I'd rather I'd rather see some records broken. Edited May 27, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[Frosty.]

Meh I'd rather I'd rather see some records broken.

Realistically, I would be happy with something better than the met office update for next week, we have seen the worst and best of the Gfs today, the 00z was rank but the 12z is a peach, it builds the azores high across the uk rather than not at all (00z) which must be a good signal for some southeastwards adjustment compared to the Gem 00z which will hopefully continue.

Edited May 27, 2013 by Frosty039

[Milhouse]

The 12z ensembles looking much better and mirroring the GFS 12z op in bringing high pressure into play for the weekend much more than the 00z showed. Not much changes into FI with high pressure indicated to be high over the UK for the first 3rd of June.

 

 

[Robbie Garrett]

The only problem is, if we get warm and thundery the SSTs are quite low for this time of the year they would probably prevent imports.    But I reckon a Scandinavian High as we enter and progress into June. Personally a very wet and cool Summer is on the way, again!!

 

[Barry12]

The only problem is, if we get warm and thundery the SSTs are quite low for this time of the year they would probably prevent imports. But I reckon a Scandinavian High as we enter and progress into June. Personally a very wet and cool Summer is on the way, again!!

Summers over then?

I reckon we will get a good June!

ECM will be better than the 00z.

Edited May 27, 2013 by Barry95

[Robbie Garrett]

But we don't ever get good weather longer than 5 days in this country.  Besides I think August like last year will be the warmest and best month!! Going for August being the first above average and only month of 2013. 

 

 

Summers over then?

I reckon we will get a good June!

ECM will be better than the 00z.

[Milhouse]

But we don't ever get good weather longer than 5 days in this country.  Besides I think August like last year will be the warmest and best month!! Going for August being the first above average and only month of 2013. 

Doesnt have to be that way though. Numerous Summers in the not too distant past have had more prolonged settled periods. Nothing to say one wont occur this year.

[Summer Sun]

Very good ENS again tonight into the T120 range now

 

 

With low pressure anchored across Greenland we have every chance of seeing a decent start to summer this year unlike 12 months ago

 

The ensembles continue the drier warm trend as well

 

 

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

Yet another excellent GEFS mean, the 12z becomes anticyclonic with the Azores anticyclone ridging through the uk and pressure remains generally high, 1020mb or higher for the rest of the run, pretty much a carbon copy of the gfs 12z operational run, the settled mean continues to fly in the face of cool and unsettled met office updates but if these type of runs continue, there must be a good chance of a mostly settled and warmer first half to June.

Edited May 27, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

ECM is making steady progress again tonight at first

 

 

But t168 is the party pooper a definite back track from the 00z run at this time frame it would be a case of best in the west if this came off

 

Edited May 27, 2013 by Gavin.

[TonyH]

It is indeed unusual, but April, May and early June are the most popular times of the year to get such an "inverse NW-SE split". May 1975 was a particularly extreme case, with persistently cool grey weather over East Anglia and the SE, but over 300 hours of sunshine at Tiree. I have mentioned June 1988 a few times recently, which was a dry, sunny and notably warm month over much of Scotland (in stark contrast to July!) but a very dull month in East Anglia.

I am thinking that such a NW-SE split is starting to look less likely now, with many model runs positioning the high pressure further south than before, but the long-term outlook is starting to look messy IMHO so it still can't be ruled out.

Interesting as to the source of your historical anecdotes TWS?

[Tony27]

i wouldn't call it steady at all, its yet another delay for the high to build properly, i thought the last of the chilly nights were over last night, but the weekend could be chilly yet again its so annoying that any slight northerly we get in late spring and modest 850 temps can still lead to chilly nights, i still can't put my tender plants out, i really hope the the UKMO and ECM are wrong, the GFS is much better

[Summer Sun]

ECM is doing a complete backtrack tonight will be interesting to see its ensemble run later on

 

[049balt]

lets hope it is just a blip.

[Tony27]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013052712/ECM1-192.GIF?27-0

[William of Walworth]

Just when it was starting to look settled from later this week, and across the models too, at least one of 'em insists on party pooping, and nailbite-level increasing.

Highly frustrating, this weather watching game.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z operational run has literally rained on our parade, how unlucky would we be to have a pesky trough directly over the uk when there is high pressure all around it, hopefully the De Bilt ensembles will paint a different picture tonight, the updated 12z ens mean will be very interesting now, it's not like the ecm to flip flop so much between 00z and 12z.

 

I'm not at all concerned by this run because it's still far too early to have any cross model agreement on next week yet.

[Tony27]

i won't take any notice of the ECM mean it always seems to show some sort of stable high pressure in FI its not specific enough like op runs

[Frosty.]

T+240 hours is the final insult, it could only happen to the uk.

[Barry12]

The ECM was not that bad, infact Friday looks high pressure dominated for the whole of the UK, which is an upgrade from the 00z. It only really starts going downhill from the +168 range, which is well into FI in my opinion. Also the step from +144 to +166 doesn't like right at all, I'm still positive

 

Edited May 27, 2013 by Barry95

[Frosty.]

The ECM was not that bad, infact Friday looks high pressure dominated for the whole of the UK, which is an upgrade from the 00z. It only really starts going downhill from the +168 range, which is well into FI in my opinion.

Not really Barry, it's ok in the west for a time but that spoiler trough across southern scandinavia would soon bring a cooler and stronger NE'ly flow with a lot of cloud and some showers for most of the uk, then a cool, cyclonic showery spell next week but at least the winds would fall light with sunny spells between the downpours, more like april than early summer if it happens.

[Barry12]

Not really Barry, it's ok in the west for a time but that spoiler trough across southern scandinavia would soon bring a cooler and stronger NE'ly flow with a lot of cloud and some showers for most of the uk, then a cool, cyclonic showery spell next week but at least the winds would fall light with sunny spells between the downpours, more like april than early summer if it happens.

 

Well the GFS and UKMO didn't have this trough so lets hope it's wrong, it's only the best model in the 5 day period. But if it carries on the theme tomorrow morning I'm giving up model watching for a bit. Why is it so impossible to get a good summer!?

[NeilN]

Remember, there is ALWAYS one model that goes against the grain.

 

Is the UK not allowed heat until 2015?

[Barry12]

Remember, there is ALWAYS one model that goes against the grain.

 

Is the UK not allowed heat until 2015?

 

The UK seems to be getting a similiar climate as Iceland..

[Frosty.]

Well the GFS and UKMO didn't have this trough so lets hope it's wrong, it's only the best model in the 5 day period. But if it carries on the theme tomorrow morning I'm giving up model watching for a bit. Why is it so impossible to get a good summer!?

Well it's only 1 op run so no need to worry, the ecm has had a wobble today, the 00z was completely different with high pressure in control, no reason why it won't look anticyclonic again tomorrow.