Model Output Discussion 12z 23/05/13

[NeilN]

It does look...co-incidential to say the least......I doubt it will be the repeat version.

[Tamara]

Well spotted! Did you have to bring that one up! 

 

Fingers crossed the thought process is wrong But I do the think the ECM is following the right path as far as it goes at least

Edited May 25, 2013 by Tamara Road

[049balt]

I remember that week in 2012 and just how fast it all went down hill after that!

[NeilN]

I remember that week in 2012 and just how fast it all went down hill after that!

 

I hope June 2013 erases any memory of June 2012 out of my mind....worst summer month ever along with July 2007. 

[Gibby]

Hi folks. Here is tonight's review of the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday May 25th 2013.

All models show similar conditions between now and Wednesday of next week. A ridge of high pressure is crossing from the West tonight and tomorrow with light winds and plenty of clear skies away from the cloudier NW where there will continue to be a little rain. Chilly conditions overnight will give way to a warm afternoon tomorrow. By Monday Low pressure will be moving down from the NW towards NW Britain sending an occlusion East over the UK with rain marching West to East through the day. By Tuesday and Wednesday the Low pressure is transiting SE over the UK and away to the SE with attendant rain and heavy showers featuring for all areas over these days.

GFS shows a reasonable day on Thursday as a weak ridge topples across the UK from the West with few if any showers and sunny spells for most. On Friday a front brings occasional rain East over Britain followed by a strong rise of pressure from the SW by the weekend with Southern and Eastern parts becoming quite warm and sunny while the North and West sees moist SW winds and rain or drizzle at times. Through FI tonight High pressure dominates the UK weather almost entirely innitially centred near or over the UK with increasingly warm and humid conditions. Thereafter although High pressure remains in control things will probably not be as straightforward as being just sunny, warm and dry as prevailing winds and small upper air features are all shown and will totally determine what conditions are felt at the surface. Having said that it's a relatively dry and settled if not overly warm outlook with plenty of dry and bright weather and just the risk of a scattering of showers at times.

The GFS Ensembles still show an increase in uppers though it should be noted that the operational was a warm outlier in the second half of the run in the South. Nevertheless, uppers are likely to be above average from about a week's time and with generally smaller amounts of precipitation shown than recently we must assume high pressure should be well in control.

The Jet Stream shows the flow crossing the Atlantic and turning SE over or to the West of the UK to the Southern arm over Southern Europe. Later next week the link to the Southern arm is severed with a weakish flow then deflected NE to the North of the UK from next weekend.

UKMO tonight shows a NW flow across the UK with disturbances running SE at times enhancing the general mix of sunshine and showers. These will probably well scattered in the South while Northern areas bear the brunt of them. In NW breezes we should only expect average temperatures at best from these synoptics.

GEM tonight shows Low pressure clearing the SE slowly later next week with drier conditions gradually replacing the showery midweek conditions. Improvements are slow in the SE while High pressure ridges NE over the North and West of Britain with attendant fine and potentially warmer and sunnier weather. The High later centred to the North of the UK by the end of the run. This sets up an Easterly flow, strongest in the South where the proximity of low pressure to the South could give rise to some thundery showers here.

NAVGEM shows a West or Northwest flow towards the end of it's run with further showery troughs making there way down from the NW and becoming slow moving close to the East Coast. A lot of dry and reasonable weather will be a quite common occurrence next week but there will be areas of showers at times probably most concentrated towards the East where some could be heavy. The model shows average temperatures at best from tonight's charts.

ECM tonight is a little slower in getting improvements into the UK holding a showery disturbance down over the UK through Thursday with some heavy and thundery showers in rather cool conditions in a Northerly flow. However, therafter the model recovers somewhat as a large High pressure block does become centred to the North of the UK with a gentle NE flow over the UK and a showery trough painfully close to Southern Britain. In addition with such a long sea track over the North Sea such warm uppers will incur much moisture development with widespread sea haar and low cloud becoming problematical for Eastern Coastal Counties and even some Central areas at times. By day 10 High pressure is maintained to the North with a potentially thundery low pushing heavy thundery showers up into the South

In Summary tonight the dangers I exposed in my summary report this morning to the improvements logged have manifested themselves tonight as a slight shift in position of very small features and upper cold pools ultimately shows marked changes when percolated down to surface conditions. There is very little overall change to the pattern from this morning synoptically and it is important not to treat what I'm saying as pattern changing, things could easily swing back more favourably tomorrow morning. The one constant that can be noted from the longest term projections from GFS and ECM though is the consistency to keep the best conditions towards more Northern locations while in the South furthest from the High pressure more showery incursions look possible. Overall temperatures look like recovering to levels we should expect in June and possibly rather warm at times especially towards the NW.

Edited May 25, 2013 by Gibby

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very positive steps from ECM again this sunny evening

 

 

Either the models are leading us down the garden path again or the data the met office are using is giving them the wrong signals the data we have is looking very positive

 

 

0ne run I know, but for my location it would suggest mostly cloudy and average temps, Scotland especially NW would be summery, while midlands could struggle under north sea mist

[Methuselah]

Fingers crossed the thought process is wrong But I do the think the ECM is following the right path as far as it goes at least

I hope so, too. But it's that 1962 analogue that's a tad worrying! My younger bro and I were allowed downstairs, to watch the Flintstones, because of an enormous thunderstorm, in 1962!

 

Or was that '63???

[Frosty.]

0ne run I know, but for my location it would suggest mostly cloudy and average temps, Scotland especially NW would be summery, while midlands could struggle under north sea mist

The Gfs 12z looks a lot warmer and sunnier for southern areas with the cooler, windier unsettled weather further north, the Ecm 00z was much better with the azores high building strongly northeast across all areas, so, there will be a lot more changes by tomorrow since the position and orientation of the high is nowhere near resolved yet, at least high pressure is coming and the unsettled spell next week looks no more than a blip.

[Methuselah]

Models disagree strongly,ecm and gfs remain at large at this period t 240 but frosty its getting irratating of your predictions of a prolonged settled is up and coming, not straight forward by any sense,!

Calm down chaps...Just let folks post what they think, eh? Please...

[Methuselah]

I'm getting irritated by you making up nonsense posts.

And you Frosty... 

[Methuselah]

Please guys??? We will always have disagreements; that is the nature of discussion. I really do not want to start deleting posts, okay?

 

So, please, let us all just accept that our own, personal opinions are exactly that??

 

Please... 

[Summer Sun]

Once again we have another excellent set of ensembles from ECM

 

 

If this keeps up we'll be seeing a backtrack in the met office outlooks thats for sure

[phil nw.]

A number of posts containing off topic and childish or personal digs have been deleted.

 

Come on folks this is spoiling the thread and once one starts it creates more responses.

Please keep your posts to the model outputs- whether settled or unsettled just put your views and leave it at that.

 

Thanks all.

[Tony27]

meteociel is better to view these pressure charts, the charts from netweather that frosty and gavin post make high pressure look better than it is, these charts don't look great to me, FI looks really nice for shetland though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Edited May 25, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

meteociel is better to view these pressure charts, the charts from netweather that frosty and gavin post make high pressure look better than it is, these charts don't look great to me

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

 

Maybe not so great in the south but those in the north would see the best of the weather both in terms of sunshine and warmth

[I remember Atlantic 252]

meteociel is better to view these pressure charts, the charts from netweather that frosty and gavin post make high pressure look better than it is, these charts don't look great to me, FI looks really nice for shetland though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

 

agree tony, but they look good for Gavin and Frosty's areas, north look like being settled and sunny

[Barry12]

Co-incidentally, I think the ECM op run is on the milder side of the extreme theme, certainly not without support, but definitely not a popular prognosis of the sharper cooler side of possibilities..

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm surprised that if anything tonight's ECMWF ensembles have brought the high pressure a bit further south and east- although the British Isles remains at the edge of the ridge, the N/NE flow over eastern areas is toned down another notch and the 850hPa temperatures are slightly higher towards the end of the run.  The posts referencing widespread warm sunny weather are thus starting to look more plausible in my view, though it must be stressed that it lies outside of what we'd usually consider to be the reliable timeframe.  The ECMWF operational run doesn't appear to have much support with its strong east to north-easterlies.

[phil nw.]

The trend for the Azores High to ridge towards the UK after midweek is showing on both ECM and GFS means here at T168hrs-next weekend

 

 

After the rain band coming through from BH Monday with showers on Tuesday it looks like a gradual improvement will get underway.

By midweek we can see by the thickness levels there's still evidence of some upper cold troughing around NW Europe so there's likely to be areas of cloud and drizzle coming in from weak frontal systems as some warmer Atlantic sourced air is brought around the top of the ridge on a south westerly flow.

It looks like around next weekend when things could start to really turn brighter and warmer especially areas away from western coasts.

At the moment both mean outputs show a broad band of high pressure linking across the UK by T240hrs which on the face of it looks very positive for some fine and dry weather going into the following week.

 

For some time now the mean outputs have been heralding the advance of the Azores high towards month end and the 12z runs again show  a mean pattern that continues to look very promising for a nice start to Summer.

[mikewhit5]

Off to Turkey (marmaris) on thursday, the charts seem are worrying me as they seem to predict a lot of rain for that area? is that correct? I thought that turkey would be pretty dry and hot in june!

[johnholmes]

post 34 in the more technical thread is how I would like to see every post showing the model outputs-no bias and a good mix of differing models to show how the overall evolution is being shown by the models.

well worth reading for everyone and especially those who may be a bit confused by the more biased model comments that appear in here at times.

Edited May 25, 2013 by johnholmes

[Tamara]

Calm down chaps...Just let folks post what they think, eh? Please...

Maybe an extra balance of females is what is needed ?  We don't seek to argue - we just take the science, make it user friendly and less scary to the average Joe/Joanna in the street, use intuition, logic and our own brand of common sense plus some gentle persuasion to suggest the possible model outlook  And we look to speak in simple tongue and seek to break down long technical words - decoding the techno babble that guys give us So it should be a no brainer 

[winterof79]

Maybe the MET will adjust their medium range forecast back to a little more settled before long.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-3-168.png?0

Jets going on holiday.Eastern seaboard looks quiet too

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-168.png?0 

[Frosty.]

There are still BIG differences between the Gfs & Ecm in how they model the Azores anticyclone in a week's time, the Ecm 00z is persisting with building the high to the northwest of the BI which would be great news for more northwestern parts of the uk but not so good for the south & east of the uk with a cooler NE'ly breeze and more cloud and a few showers, the Ecm is a major concern if it continues this way. The Gfs 00z is much better for the southern half of the uk due to the azores high ridging in further southeast and it would be sunny and warm but scotland and n.ireland would be on the northern side of the high and subject to a more atlantic regime, at least for a time but further into FI the anticyclone builds across all parts of the uk to bring a spell of glorious summer weather with temperatures into the mid to high 70's F.

The Gefs 00z mean turns into another very settled run with the azores high building northeast through the uk and linking up with high pressure across scandinavia which would bring a prolonged spell of very warm and settled weather to the uk, this could potentially be a very good June.

[bluearmy]

the ecm ens and spread from the 12z were more encouraging wrt the repeating troughing. however, the 00z op is not. the ens are out soon so we'll get a better idea of how supported it is. btw, the 12z naefs from yesterday didnt fill me with excitement from a settled perspective.

 

EDIT: the 00z ecm ens mean is better than the op re the jet in fi. spreads look ok on ecmwf.int but i find it easier to see the nuances on meteociel which hasnt updated as yet.

Edited May 26, 2013 by bluearmy