Model Output Discussion 12z 23/05/13

[Barry12]

M O G R E P S

I thought the ecm 00z ensemble mean would have meant something to the met office, it looks so good.

It's not just because of the mogreps, their professional meteorologist, it's not as simple as looking at a model, if it was anyone could do their jobs

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think some are perhaps being a touch optimistic about what the resulting weather would be like if the ECMWF ensembles were to come off.  While the high pressure certainly gets very close, we still keep a N to NE airflow on its eastern flank, blowing over an anomalously cool North Sea, and 850hPa temperatures typically between 2 and 6C which is about normal for early June.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.gif

I would expect conditions to be pleasant enough for most people in the western two-thirds of the country with plenty of dry sunny weather and temperatures around 20C, but not the mid-20s as some have been suggesting.  For the eastern third that N to NE flow could bring a fair amount of cloud at times and temperatures nearerr 15C by day.

 

The GFS 06Z appears to get to roughly the same position in the end but we get the high pressure cell moving right across the British Isles for a time.

 

Before that, the weather looks like being quite changeable but nothing unusual for the time of year.  The convection/storm fans have something to look forward to on Tuesday and Wednesday, and after that, a mostly dry bright day on Thursday followed by a weak rain belt on Friday, clearing to leave sunny intervals and scattered showers.

[Purga]

It's not just because of the mogreps, their professional meteorologist, it's not as simple as looking at a model, if it was anyone could do their jobs

Correct!

[Frosty.]

It's not just because of the mogreps, their professional meteorologist, it's not as simple as looking at a model, if it was anyone could do their jobs

Well whatever the reason is, the latest ens mean from the ecm & gefs is pointing firmly towards a prolonged spell of high pressure and gradually rising temperatures.

[johnholmes]

I have posted some charts and Met O predictions in two other areas but yes they have far more data available and are of course fully trained meteorologists so it does make a difference.

But I still wonder what it was that has caused a fairly marked change in their predictions for early June?

[Frosty.]

The increasingly settled, benign and warmer outlook is continuing to look the form horse according to the latest Gefs 06z mean, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is even more bullish about the azores anticyclone ridging across the uk by the end of next week, the upcoming pattern looks very slack with no sign of an active atlantic, quite the opposite actually.

[Purga]

I have posted some charts and Met O predictions in two other areas but yes they have far more data available and are of course fully trained meteorologists so it does make a difference.

But I still wonder what it was that has caused a fairly marked change in their predictions for early June?

Not just early June John, they are going for cool or average, at best, temps and unsettled conditions right up to the 23rd June.

A few reasonable days are indicated but nothing to write home about.

After that the days start drawing in - LOL

[Frosty.]

I have posted some charts and Met O predictions in two other areas but yes they have far more data available and are of course fully trained meteorologists so it does make a difference.

But I still wonder what it was that has caused a fairly marked change in their predictions for early June?

It's probably just a delay to the fine and settled outlook.

Not just early June John, they are going for cool or average, at best, temps and unsettled conditions right up to the 23rd June.

A few reasonable days are indicated but nothing to write home about.

After that the days start drawing in - LOL

give it a rest, can't you post something sensible?

[Thundery wintry showers]

The latest Met Office update suggests to me a projection of a mid-Atlantic high, Scandinavian trough type setup, and the transfer of relatively warm dry sunny weather from the SW to the NW is indicative of the high moving across to the NW with troughing to the SE.  The timing of this change of outlook is surprising considering that the ECMWF ensembles have trended in the other direction, but the key transition period is still at 6-9 days out so a backtrack towards what the Met Office are suggesting cannot be ruled out.

 

I do, though, get a continued sense that some are surveying the charts and seeing what they want to see- those expecting a marked difference relative to last year's June are unlikely to be disappointed, but those expecting reliably dry sunny weather and temperatures in the low to mid 20s are likely to be disappointed, particularly in counties bordering the North Sea.  My view on this may change if we see the high pressure projected to ridge further east on subsequent runs.

[Methuselah]

Can we kindly cut out the petty, childish jibes, please??

[Geordiesnow]

It's probably just a delay to the fine and settled outlook.

give it a rest, can't you post something sensible?

 

What make you think "its just a delay to the fine and settled outlook" which you been predicting for weeks on end?

 

The good news, the earlier projection of the models want to stretch the current Scandi high into Greenland was quickly dropped therefore heights remain low across Greenland but that does not mean we will have fine and settled weather. 

 

That said, for this week, the models are making slightly less influence of this low pressure system and it looks a tad milder and drier(but still some rainfall in most areas) so overall, a fairly average outlook for late May really but I will take that for next week because earlier predictions did look poor for next week. 

 

That said, still too early to get carried away about having a nice spell of dry and settled weather though. 

[NorthernRab]

After that the days start drawing in - LOL

 

And the likelihood of hotter temperatures increases! 

 

 

Anyway, there could possibly be some flooding as heavy rain and relatively strong winds moves in on Monday for parts of Ireland and Scotland, quite a contrast from today which has been fairly stunning across both:

 

 

[Frosty.]

What make you think "its just a delay to the fine and settled outlook" which you been predicting for weeks on end?

 

 

I've just been doing what I always do, posting charts and then describing what they show, is there anything wrong with that?

 

The ensemble mean charts have been showing a settled outlook for some time, and I haven't predicted anything, just described what the models are showing.

Edited May 25, 2013 by Frosty039

[johnholmes]

oh dear the summer season and we have reminders of the childish behavour of the winter season.

PLEASE stop it and allow those who want to know what the models are showing to be able to do just that. Moans, preferences etc have their own thread. Can some of you not read?

below is the link to the chart page etc from the free part of Net Wx, have a look in there, or read the regular forecast from either Jo or Nick regarding their views on the charts and the latest Net Wx forecast, possibly even read the Met O output who, believe it or not are far more accurate almost every time short and long range than some of the pundits on here.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home;sess=

Met UK

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Edited May 25, 2013 by johnholmes

[Barry12]

How come no ones posting anything about the 12Z's?

[Frosty.]

oh dear the summer season and we have reminders of the childish behavour of the winter season.

PLEASE stop it and allow those who want to know what the models are showing to be able to do just that. Moans, preferences etc have their own thread. Can some of you not read?

below is the link to the chart page etc from the free part of Net Wx, have a look in there, or read the regular forecast from either Jo or Nick regarding their views on the charts and the latest Net Wx forecast, possibly even read the Met O output who, believe it or not are far more accurate almost every time short and long range than some of the pundits on here.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=home;sess=

Met UK

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

I was just defending myself against silly comments.

[Summer Sun]

How come no ones posting anything about the 12Z's?

 

Probably sat outside like me enjoying the sunshine

 

UKMO is showing continued attempts to push high pressure in towards the end of next week

 

 

As is GFS

 

 

Way out into FI and the high is still there

 

 

Over to ECM now

[Frosty.]

Another Gfs run which eventually becomes settled and warmer, the 12z shows pressure rising as early as midweek with the jet buckling and the azores anticyclone ridging northeastwards across the southern half of the uk, so it becomes settled and warmer in the south for a time but with the PFJ through northern britain, scotland and n.ireland looks like remaining changeable and cooler for a while longer, the less settled weather briefly makes further inroads south and east but then the anticyclone builds across the whole of the uk and it becomes warm and sunny in most areas with temperatures into the low 70's F, most of FI is warm, dry and sunny although sea breezes keep coastal areas somewhat cooler, especially northern & eastern coasts. All being well, the polar front jet will be forced well to the north of the BI beyond next week which is currently well supported by the ensemble mean.

[Barry12]

The Met Office will be in their office laughing at the models saying 'if only' while drinking their tea and eating their biscuits.

Lets hope the ECM is as good as the GFS if not better

[Frosty.]

Another increasingly warm and settled GEFS mean, the 12z looks even better than the 6z with the Azores anticyclone taking control and the PFJ being pulled way north to greenland, the uk becomes settled and warm with potential for it to become very warm, hopefully the Ecm 12z ens mean tonight will make it 3 very nice summery runs in a row. It seems logical that the azores high is soon going to have it's best chance yet to have a significant influence on the uk weather once the trough next week fills and clears, I expect an awkward transition from unsettled to settled but the outlook continues to look good to me on recent and current evidence.

Edited May 25, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

ECM is now showing high pressure trying to force its way in later next week

 

 

UKMO and GFS at t120 so we can compare the 3

 

Edited May 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Very positive steps from ECM again this sunny evening

 

 

Either the models are leading us down the garden path again or the data the met office are using is giving them the wrong signals the data we have is looking very positive

 

Edited May 25, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm and Gfs 12z have very different ways of handling the azores/atlantic high (ridge) later next week, the gfs 12z shows a much sunnier and warmer outcome for southern britain and the ecm 12z builds the high further northwest so it would be ireland and scotland which would have the sunniest and warmest weather, at least it looks like high pressure is going to play a big part in the outlook but the position and orientation of the anticyclone will make a huge difference to who has cooler and cloudier weather with a few showers and other areas which turn warm & sunny, more runs needed then, the ecm run ends up being a peach for more northern parts of the uk.

[Tamara]

Late May 2012

 

Potentially early June 2013

 

 

 

 

Some similarities at least for sure.... And if the NAEFS is followed up with its suggestion of retrogression after this time of the High towards southern Greenland then it would follow the same path as last year, if one looks at the archive wetterzentrale charts for after the one I have posted that same evolution can be seen. The suggestion is not to say this is definitely going to happen or we are going to follow last summer - but one gets an idea of how the pattern could evolve and why the outlook might not be clear cut in terms of staying settled for long..Hopefully this won't happen, but the modelling hints are here, at least at the moment 

Edited May 25, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Methuselah]

Well spotted! Did you have to bring that one up!