Model Output Discussion 12z 23/05/13

[Thundery wintry showers]

The synoptic charts for next week remind me a lot of how the first third of June 2007 panned out.  I remember that most parts of the country had a lot of warm dry sunny weather, but at Cleadon in Tyne and Wear (where I was based at the time) the average maximum temperature for 1-10 June was just 15.5C, and low cloud was so persistent that the shortage of sunshine was actually larger than later in the month when it turned very wet.  However, due to the slack easterly flow the low cloud often tended to burn back to the coast during the daytime and it looks like the upcoming spell of weather will be no different.  It is certainly one of those situations where I am pleased to be no longer living near the east coast.

 

The weekend continues to look dry, sunny and cool but with a few showers in E Scotland and parts of NE England on Saturday.  Next week is looking sunny and warm for the western two-thirds of the country (maxima around 19 to 22C).  The GFS is continuing to suggest some thundery downpours around midweek although bear in mind that the GFS often overdoes dew points and, consequently, convective potential in these situations.  However, within about ten miles of the east coast, maxima of 15-18C will probably be more typical.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z is a good run overall with high pressure in control for long periods, especially across the north of the uk but even with pressure fairly high, there looks like being some embedded disturbances which will cause the sunny weather to act as the trigger for some heavy showers, the 6z shows next tuesday and wednesday as being the main shower threat days, chiefly across central parts of the uk and then another unsettled spike for a time during the following week in the south but apart from that, only the odd isolated shower is likely anywhere but most areas outside of the showery zone look dry, warm and sunny, next week does look generally warm with temperatures in the 18-22c range but cooler where there are clusters of showers persisting, the good news then is that the showers risk subsides and they become very scattered and eventually die out with long spells of warm sunshine, a strong atlantic ridge becomes a persistent feature across the north and this then extends further south, the overall pattern on the 6z looks blocked and slow moving which means we could be in for a prolonged relatively settled and pleasantly warm spell during the next few weeks, some areas could become very warm depending on the extent of continental influence, most crucially, it's genuine summer weather ahead, the cold trough pattern is now behind us thankfully.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Frosty039

[Barry12]

Only 16-17C over the weekend and it was meant to be sunny and reach 20C here today and it's completely cloudy! not sure how you can call that 'warm' frosty. I know I am being imbyist but still. I won't be happy until we get a repeat of Summer 2006 where 30C was reached

[Frosty.]

Only 16-17C over the weekend and it was meant to be sunny and reach 20C here today and it's completely cloudy! not sure how you can call that 'warm' frosty. I know I am being imbyist but still. I won't be happy until we get a repeat of Summer 2006 where 30C was reached

Give it chance, it's supposed to be sunnier this pm, i'm taking a general overview of the uk and not local, it will be pleasantly warm where the sun breaks through and the weekend should get better and better as high pressure builds northeastwards across the uk, by early next week it should be warm with temps nudging the low 70's F.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows cooler/fresher air coming around the top of the building azores/atlantic anticyclone and down across the uk tomorrow so a much fresher day for the south of the uk tomorrow after today's relatively warm & humid feel, at least it looks like a fine and bright weekend with sunny spells and only a few showers but the nights looks briefly being chilly. The ecm mean then shows a warmer and anticyclonic start to next week through to around midweek but the high migrating further north but leaving a strong ridge across the south, so 1025 mb for scotland but nearer 1020 mb for southern england, just like the 6z, there appears to be a greater risk of heavy showers breaking out on tues/wed/thurs but some areas remaining dry, warm and sunny, the northwest of the uk becomes generally settled as a stronger atlantic ridge builds eastwards but later in the run, pressure across the uk generally falls to around 1015 mb and showers become more widespread but still with spells of warm sunshine, temperatures next week onwards look like 19-23c range, a few areas may reach the mid 70's F but counties bordering the north sea tending to be somewhat cooler/fresher than further inland with temps closer to 14-19c from the coastal strip itself to around 5-10 miles inland.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Frosty039

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows cooler/fresher air coming around the top of the building azores/atlantic anticyclone and down across the uk tomorrow so a much fresher day for the south of the uk tomorrow after today's relatively warm & humid feel, at least it looks like a fine and bright weekend with sunny spells and only a few showers but the nights looks briefly being chilly. The ecm mean then shows a warmer and anticyclonic start to next week through to around midweek but the high migrating further north but leaving a strong ridge across the south, so 1025 mb for scotland but nearer 1020 mb for southern england, just like the 6z, there appears to be a greater risk of heavy showers breaking out on tues/wed/thurs but some areas remaining dry, warm and sunny, the northwest of the uk becomes generally settled as a stronger atlantic ridge builds eastwards but later in the run, pressure across the uk generally falls to around 1015 mb and showers become more widespread but still with spells of warm sunshine, temperatures next week onwards look like 19-23c range, a few areas may reach the mid 70's F but counties bordering the north sea tending to be somewhat cooler/fresher than further inland with temps closer to 14-19c from the coastal strip itself to around 5-10 miles inland.

It doesnt feel cool and fresh here in skeg today feels warm and quite humid just been outside for a walk im wearing just shorts n a vest

[Frosty.]

It doesnt feel cool and fresh here in skeg today feels warm and quite humid just been outside for a walk im wearing just shorts n a vest

The cooler fresher air is tomorrow as a pocket of cooler oceanic air comes around the top of the building azores/atlantic high (ridge)....I did say tomorrow would be the cooler day with today the warmer/humid day.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Frosty039

[Milhouse]

_{GEFS 6z ensemble mean offers the possibility of something very warm and humid in FI with the mean indicating a plume type setup. Still a long way away to be certain, but it doesnt look like the upcoming high will retreat northwards over Greenland allow low pressure to attack the UK. Instead High pressure looks set to remain in the right place to deliver prolonged dry and reasonably warm weather for the UK.}

[Summer Sun]

The 06z ensembles show little sign of the uppers going below the average line (red one) once we get into next week which is a positive way to start summer

 

Edited May 31, 2013 by Gavin.

[rory o gorman]

even today here given the colder 850s uppers , its still a pleasant 17c and sunny .Goes to show people that 500 mb heights are more important at this time of the year given the strong sun.

[Frosty.]

Some cracking charts from the Gefs 06z mean, especially the first half of the run with high pressure in control with lots of warm, dry and sunny weather for several days but with a risk of some heavy showers towards midweek, trending very warm as we import continental warmth & humidity and then it looks like pressure falls a little but it continues warm (v.warm) and humid with sunny periods but increasingly widespread thundery showers with a continental airmass,T850 hPa is on an upwards curve so no sign that we are going to go back to the cool/cold trough set up which has dominated spring..a summery spell is coming.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Frosty039

[Barry12]

 

All good so far from the GFS with rising temperatures

Edited May 31, 2013 by Barry95

[Tony27]

That annoying little pest of a trough has gone, but we have a fresh NorthEasterly wind, will it feel warm next week?

Edited May 31, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

Its looking fairly certain now we'll see warmer easterly winds setting up as we go through next week

 

 

The east coast could well be plagued by cloud and or sea mist at times but where the cloud does or is broken it will feel very pleasant given how strong the sun is now

[Tony27]

Warm? since when is 14c warm? http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130531/12/123/ukmaxtemp.png

 

if its not one thing its another in this country

[NeilN]

So no warm spell then? Seriously, is there a heat shield over the UK?

[Scorcher]

Warm? since when is 14c warm? http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130531/12/123/ukmaxtemp.png

 

if its not one thing its another in this country

 

Looking at that setup that temperature chart is pretty puzzling to me, maybe someone more knowledgeable can enlighten me but that looks rather bizarre given the synoptics. Then again we know we shouldn't take the GFS's temperature predictions as gospel.

[Frosty.]

That annoying little pest of a trough has gone, but we have a fresh NorthEasterly wind, will it feel warm next week?

Yes, unless you get caught in prolonged heavy showers, next week looks warm with long sunny spells but with scattered heavy showers, not as widespread as the 6z showed, cooler/fresher in counties bordering the north sea but mostly on the coastal strip itself, it will be warm inland and probably become more humid as time goes on.

[Summer Sun]

So no warm spell then? Seriously, is there a heat shield over the UK?

 

Its going to depend on cloud cover in any sunshine it will feel warm just like today for many parts of England and Wales I've been outside and now have sunburn with a max of around 19c

 

Edited May 31, 2013 by Gavin.

[rory o gorman]

Given the heights and overall thickness i think 14c is severely low-balled for Wednesday a common problem with the gfs. Was forecast for 14c here today with 0.2mm of rain by said GFS, currently mostly sunny with 16.7c at 5 pm and zero rain.

[Tony27]

it is a myth that GFS max temps are underdone, that used to be the case but not any more, it is still faulty with its min temps though and it is predicting a slight frost on sun night, http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130531/12/66/ukmintemp.png

 

GFS has a strong easterly wind, so my little tomatoes will take a battering, UKMO has a light easterly, hopefully UKMO is right

[PB22]

Those temperatures are perfectly feasible, and this is why:

http://www.seafordweather.co.uk/wl/UKSeaTemp.htm

 

 

The North Sea still in single figures.  As I said earlier, those hoping for warmth in the east next week will probably end up disappointed.  West is the place to be, but even here those winds will subdue the temperatures.  Plenty of fine weather around though, just a shame the temperatures will still be below normal for many.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Paul B

[Frosty.]

So no warm spell then? Seriously, is there a heat shield over the UK?

It looks warm to me

[Tony27]

thankfully it is only one day wednesday, where it will feel cool in that easterly wind, mon, tues, thurs and fri, temps look average/good,  24c next friday i'll believe it when i see it though

Edited May 31, 2013 by Tony27

[Barry12]

What would the temperatures be if this verified?