Model Output Discussion 12z 23/05/13

[Frosty.]

What would the temperatures be if this verified?

 

This + 2 or 3c by mid/late afternoon, pleasantly warm.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Frosty039

[Bristawl Si]

Looks increasingly like a normal early June spell coming up to me.

Normal temps, sunshine first few days, then possibly showers breaking out.

That'll do for Summer-starters.

[Evening thunder]

even today here given the colder 850s uppers , its still a pleasant 17c and sunny .Goes to show people that 500 mb heights are more important at this time of the year given the strong sun.

 

I think IMO the 850's are more important in summer, given enough sunshine and no onshore wind near the coast an approx figure I use is to add 15C to the 850's to get the max temps. For example about 850's about 6-7C across Devon today has given a max of 21.8C, warmest of the year by far despite a northerly wind. Southern Ireland has uppers of about 4C this afternoon so 17C isn't unexpected

 

I rarely see maxima more than say 18C above the 850hpa temps no matter how high the pressure, but even in relatively low pressure given enough sunny breaks maxima can still be near 15C above 850hpa temps. SW France forecast over 32C with 16C uppers but in a trough on 7th June on the GFS 06Z.

Anyway of course you need to know it isn't going to be too cloudy to use that as a guide of course.

 

Those temperatures are perfectly feasible, and this is why:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack5.html

 

 

The North Sea still in single figures.  As I said earlier, those hoping for warmth in the east next week will probably end up disappointed.  West is the place to be, but even here those winds will subdue the temperatures.  Plenty of fine weather around though, just a shame the temperatures will still be below normal for many.

 

I reckon the GFS is forecasting lots of low cloud off the North Sea on that day given the low maxima shown. I am pretty sure that if we don't get much problem with low cloud from the north sea much of the country will do reasonable for max temps, maybe a cooling effect starting within 20-50 miles of the coast if breeze is quite strong, closer to the coast if the breeze is light. I have seen similar scenarios quite a bit with late spring/early summer easterlies (in fact often my highest temps of recent years in east Devon have come of easterly surface flows with 850hpa temps at or slightly above 10c, although we are further west there.

 

That chart shows the 16th December, temps are a bit warmer close to the coast in places now although not actually too much warmer in parts of the North Sea: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=34&j=2

the below average SST's are likely to have slightly more influence on air temps and increase the likelihood of some mist/low cloud though probably, although for places that aren't effected, if inland, temperatures should be alright (often around average or above) for June I think based on current charts and 850hpa temps.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Summer Sun]

This 

 

And add on a bit more for the afternoon peak

[Frosty.]

Looks increasingly like a normal early June spell coming up to me.

Normal temps, sunshine first few days, then possibly showers breaking out.

That'll do for Summer-starters.

Agreed, normal early June weather will be much, much better than the coldest spring for over 50 years. I like my cold weather in winter, it went on far too long this year.

[Summer Sun]

We've had worse starts to summer

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

 

I'll settle for that no doubt about it

 

[Frosty.]

And add on a bit more for the afternoon peak

yes Gavin, 21c max probably.

[Evening thunder]

What would the temperatures be if this verified?

 

 

I'd reckon similar to today's in the south at least given similar uppers:

So probably low 20's in parts of the south of the UK (and Ireland on this chart) and high teens in other places, perhaps cooler on windward coasts.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

thankfully it is only one day wednesday, where it will feel cool in that easterly wind, mon, tues, thurs and fri, temps look average/good, 24c next friday i'll believe it when i see it though

It will prob be different frm what models say and tv forecasts.Weather for here today was supposed to be 14c (look north) last night and today it was pleasant after cloudy start had top temp 19c

[Frosty.]

This could turn into a prolonged blocked pattern with high pressure in control for long periods but just occasionally being eroded by shallow disturbances with a risk of heavy showers but soon followed by a strong rise in pressure again from the azores, rinse and repeat.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Frosty039

[049balt]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

 

Little sign of rain here.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think what happens on this GFS run is that we get a weak trough coming in off the North Sea which is projected to bring cloud and suppressed temperatures well inland on Tuesday/Wednesday, before the cool cloudy stuff burns back to the east coast on Thursday/Friday leaving other places warm and sunny.  I see that the UKMO T+96 chart also hints at this feature but makes rather less of it- we get a much slacker easterrly flow at T+120 and T+144 which would be unlikely to bring cloud very far inland.

[Summer Sun]

This could turn into a prolonged blocked pattern with high pressure in control for long periods but just occasionally being eroded by shallow disturbances with a risk of heavy showers but soon followed by a strong rise in pressure again from the azores, rinse and repeat.

 

For the first time in a number of years we are seeing a completely different pattern emerging as summer commences

 

June 2006 started with high pressure in charge

 

 

And as we all know that was our last decent summer in the UK

 

I wonder...................

[DR(S)NO]

This could turn into a prolonged blocked pattern with high pressure in control for long periods but just occasionally being eroded by shallow disturbances with a risk of heavy showers but soon followed by a strong rise in pressure again from the azores, rinse and repeat.

It could do Frosty.....but then....it depends what you call prolonged...if the following is correct...

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Jun 2013 to Friday 14 Jun 2013:

A settled start to the period with a good deal of fine and dry weather, although perhaps somewhat cloudier with some rain across the far northeast. As the week progresses, there is an increased risk of showers developing, initially across east and southeastern areas, but this risk becoming rather more widespread with time. Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, showers may merge to provide more persistent rain in places. It is likely to remain unsettled into the following week, with showers or longer spells of rain possible, this mainly in the west with eastern areas possibly seeing the best of the drier weather. Temperatures will remain close to normal and perhaps a little above in brighter areas inland, but remaining a little cooler around windward coasts.

Updated: 1113 on Fri 31 May 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

12z short ensemble for London shows continuing warm uppers and very low rainfall out to next weekend still awaiting the full ensemble

 

Edited May 31, 2013 by Gavin.

[ANYWEATHER]

This could turn into a prolonged blocked pattern with high pressure in control for long periods but just occasionally being eroded by shallow disturbances with a risk of heavy showers but soon followed by a strong rise in pressure again from the azores, rinse and repeat.

I think with all respect frosty, that the general trend is for unsettled conditions developing from the south eventually, not to say there wont be any fine weather though!  

[Summer Sun]

Full ensemble now out

 

 

Pressure does look like falling further south over time

 

[Barry12]

This doesn't look that warm to me, surely temperatures wouldn't be reaching 70f?

 

Edited May 31, 2013 by Barry95

[Frosty.]

It could do Frosty.....but then....it depends what you call prolonged...if the following is correct...

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Jun 2013 to Friday 14 Jun 2013:

A settled start to the period with a good deal of fine and dry weather, although perhaps somewhat cloudier with some rain across the far northeast. As the week progresses, there is an increased risk of showers developing, initially across east and southeastern areas, but this risk becoming rather more widespread with time. Towards the end of the week and into the weekend, showers may merge to provide more persistent rain in places. It is likely to remain unsettled into the following week, with showers or longer spells of rain possible, this mainly in the west with eastern areas possibly seeing the best of the drier weather. Temperatures will remain close to normal and perhaps a little above in brighter areas inland, but remaining a little cooler around windward coasts.

Updated: 1113 on Fri 31 May 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Yes it's another horrible update as most of them have been, they are the experts, i'm just reporting on what I see and it doesn't look as bad as the above to me but time will tell.

[Summer Sun]

This doesn't look that warm to me, surely temperatures wouldn't be reaching 70f?

 

 

Well they wouldn't in January...................

[J10]

Next week very much depends on where you live, looking very decent indeed in the west,today in a light Northerly wind hit, the shade temps hit 20c, the warmest of the year so far.

 

GFS op run shows whet could happen after next week, the Low pressure never quite makes it, but still allowing for the potential for some showers next week, and it turns more settled from the North again.

 

Of course the low pressure to the south could win out, and turns things more unsettled.

[Barry12]

Well they wouldn't in January...................

 

I edited it and put June 2013, but it wouldn't let me upload it. Kinda ruined the joke

[Frosty.]

Well they wouldn't in January...................

Apart from north africa

[Milhouse]

No threat of low pressure pushing up from the south on the UKMO. High pressure building down from the north more like. This is just out to T+144 though.

 

[Frosty.]

I think with all respect frosty, that the general trend is for unsettled conditions developing from the south eventually, not to say there wont be any fine weather though!  

That is what the met office are saying but thankfully we can all see different things on the latest models which could offer more hope than their depressing update, time will tell.