Model Output Discussion 12z 23/05/13

[Methuselah]

Why is warm and unsettled weather 'depressing'?

[ANYWEATHER]

That is what the met office are saying but thankfully we can all see different things on the latest models which could offer more hope than their depressing update, time will tell.

Frosty, it not what the metoffice say, its what I have seen from the gfs and ecm...

Edited May 31, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[049balt]

Why is warm and unsettled weather 'depressing'?

Because my fields are still saturated after 12 months of non stop rain.

[Milhouse]

ECM 12z follows the 0z in sending the mini trough over the north of Scotland. Most areas dry and fine.

 

[Summer Sun]

That small trough continues to move northwards dry for all on Thursday

 

 

High still in charge in a weeks time

 

 

Looks like western Spain and Portugal is getting the rain instead of the UK

 

Edited May 31, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

Why is warm and unsettled weather 'depressing'?

warm and unsettled would be fine but the met office unsettled outlook describes fairly average temps, warm and thundery would be better, very warm and dry is what most of us want.

Edited May 31, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

Frosty, it not what the metoffice say, its what I have seen from the gfs and ecm...

Yes i'm impressed, you and the met office are on the same page.

[ANYWEATHER]

Warm and increasing humidity with thundery downpours moving up from the South looks likely by t=168 although this is fi this looks like a trend

[CongletonHeat]

Why is warm and unsettled weather 'depressing'?

Because we hardly get any sun here and loads of rain which gets on my nerves.

[Summer Sun]

T192 sees the high still with us forcing a small area of low pressure across Iceland

 

 

t216 looks more unsettled for the south but remaining warm so thundery outbreaks can't be ruled out

 

Edited May 31, 2013 by Gavin.

[Barry12]

Frosty, it not what the metoffice say, its what I have seen from the gfs and ecm...

 

seriously though they said it would feel cool...

Edited May 31, 2013 by Barry95

[Milhouse]

Warm and increasing humidity with thundery downpours moving up from the South looks likely by t=168 although this is fi this looks like a trendgibby.pnggibby1.gif

 

Looks more likely on the GFS than the ECM which even at the closest point to the low has pressure between 1020 and 1025mb. Later on on the ECM low pressure does make a move towards the UK. But with high pressure to the west, north and east of the UK signs are promising for a continuation/return to settled conditions.

[Summer Sun]

t240 sees the high rebuilding forcing any lows north and south of the UK

 

 

Like I said earlier a completely different pattern emerging to start summer this year one we haven't seen for 7 years

 

Edited May 31, 2013 by Gavin.

[ANYWEATHER]

the ecm is not so settled as it seems by Tuesday...

[Frosty.]

This is a much warmer Ecm 12z run compared to the 00z & met office update, very warm and humid weather on the way if this verified with thundery outbreaks but also a good deal of fine and sunny weather too, the far northwest probably ending up driest.

[rmc1987]

I'm more impressed with the charts we have seen over Scandanavia. Norway has seen large parts in mid 20s quite a bit over last 2 weeks. Today though, a number of 30c, plenty of 27c and over, one being Tromso, 350km North of the Arctic Circle!

Sweden and Finland too, again as far north as 69N the temperature was 31c in Finland with many locations above 27c in both countries.

A few cooler days coming up for them then improving again. I assume this is all due a part of the reason we are getting such persistently dreadful conditions. I hear so much about northern blocking, is this what it means?

Here we get a brief warmer spell, there's excitement which is higher than usual purely due to how dreadful things have been.

Anyway it is looking like a return to usual likely and the West looking the more favoured spots? Pressure building and drifting off east but if only it was to encourage heat up this way!

That said as the old proverb goes, ne'er cast a clout till May be out

Edited May 31, 2013 by rmc1987

[ANYWEATHER]

For an experiment, lets go out to t+240 on both gfs and ecm  see what the synoptic charts show now

Not a lot of difference!  

Edited May 31, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Gibby]

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the noon output of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday May 31st 2013.

All models show High pressure well in control weather for the next 5-7 days at least with the centre moving from the SW over the UK late in the weekend and away to the North later next week. It's influence though will maintain a position close enough to keep many areas dry until at least this time next week though there may be some scattered showers about for the unlucky few from midweek.

GFS then takes us through next weekend with the North being best close to High pressure to the North with sunny spells and reasonably warm conditions in the sunshine. In the South the proximity of slack or low pressure to the South will encourage showers to form but not for everyone with a lot of dry weather still around even here. In FI tonight pressure remains slack but reasonably high with no real weather features over the UK. Therefore the weather would likely stay dry with pressure on the rise again at the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles show a warm enough spell of weather to come with temperatures slightly above normal for the most part. The only thing I'm not so keen on is the number of members showing rainfall to Central and Southern areas later in the run.

The Jet Stream shows a very weak flow for much of the period with no set positioning. With such slack winds the movement of small weather systems in the higher atmosphere will be hard to judge the movements of next week.

UKMO tonight closes with pressure recovering somewhat following a fall off in the middle of the week. The weather apart from the risk of a shower midweek would be mostly fine and warm with sunny spells.

GEM shows a blip in the High pressure midweek with a risk of showers on Wednesday. Some improvements take place once more later in the week and over the weekend as High pressure builds back to maintain largely fine and reasonably warm conditions.

NAVGEM shows a mostly high pressure based run with a slow fall off in pressure at the end promoting the gentle progression towards showers by the end of the run.

ECM tonight once more shows increasingly messy synoptics towards the end of it's run with no real weather feature having overall control. Taking that into account the most likely outcome is plenty of dry and reasonable weather for many, especially more towards the North whereas further South the greater likelihood of a showery theme increases with time.

In Summary the models are OK tonight with no major breakdown likely over the duration of the output. Instead there is a slackening of pressure shown by all models through next week but with High pressure never far away to the North fine weather will maintain the upper hand. The risk of showers is there though from as early as midweek from some output but with these likely to be scattered and far from widespread many areas will likely miss them and stay dry at least in the reliable timeframe.

[J10]

In Summary the models are OK tonight with no major breakdown likely over the duration of the output. Instead there is a slackening of pressure shown by all models through next week but with High pressure never far away to the North fine weather will maintain the upper hand. The risk of showers is there though from as early as midweek from some output but with these likely to be scattered and far from widespread many areas will likely miss them and stay dry at least in the reliable timeframe.

 

Totally agree with the above statement.

[Frosty.]

Impressively warm T850 hPa swamping the uk next week after the relatively cool uppers this weekend according to tonight's Ecm 12z op run, in the very strong june sunshine, temperatures would soar high into the 70's rather than more subdued high 60's to low 70's, in other words, rather better than the experts are expecting and with increasing humidity, the risk of scattered thundery showers would increase, a very continental type of weather from tonight's ecm.

[Scorcher]

I'm more impressed with the charts we have seen over Scandanavia. Norway has seen large parts in mid 20s quite a bit over last 2 weeks. Today though, a number of 30c, plenty of 27c and over, one being Tromso, 350km North of the Arctic Circle!

 

 Definitely looking like Northern Europe is best over the next week or so looking at tonight's charts, indeed for once it could be Spain and Portugal stuck with the cool unsettled weather! 30C possible in Tromso tomorrow, incredible!

[JK1]

Impressively warm T850 hPa swamping the uk next week after the relatively cool uppers this weekend according to tonight's Ecm 12z op run, in the very strong june sunshine, temperatures would soar high into the 70's rather than more subdued high 60's to low 70's, in other words, rather better than the experts are expecting and with increasing humidity, the risk of scattered thundery showers would increase, a very continental type of weather from tonight's ecm.

is what I like

Edited May 31, 2013 by JK1

[049balt]

Tonight the Irish Met Service have said that temperatures next week will reach 25c over central parts of Ireland, contrast that with the UK Met. and you wonder are we on the same planet. It looks like posters here are well and truly ahead of the game, so well done and enjoy!

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ensemble is looking more unsettled than the Op later next week

 

 

Op

 

 

Something to keep an eye on longer term

Tonight the Irish Met Service have said that temperatures next week will reach 25c over central parts of Ireland, contrast that with the UK Met. and you wonder are we on the same planet. It looks like posters here are well and truly ahead of the game, so well done and enjoy!

 

It makes me wonder some times if the met office have too much data at there HQ

[Barry12]

Tonight the Irish Met Service have said that temperatures next week will reach 25c over central parts of Ireland, contrast that with the UK Met. and you wonder are we on the same planet. It looks like posters here are well and truly ahead of the game, so well done and enjoy!

 

The Irish Met mostly use the ECM model for their forecasts.