Chase Day 17 - Slight Risk MT/ND/SD/NE/KS/WY/CO

[Paul Sherman]

Any of the above, a broad slight risk area, mainly for hail and wind damage but the odd isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if moisture can get advected far enough North.

 

Please chat away here

[Roger J Smith]

24h RGEM shows a meso-scale low east of Denver and Boulder CO that could enhance upslope thunderstorm formation to the east of those locations, otherwise on the larger scale, eastern Wyoming looks most promising although a better moisture field could give good results in southeast New Mexico but that seems a long way to go.

Edited May 25, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[Cloud]

Maybe western SD for a low tornado risk but some structure in western Nebraska would be the easier chase. 

[Arron]

On the road from our overnight stay in Burlington, CO. Heading north towards the South Dakota border for some northern plains magic today

[RichB]

Good luck. How is the forecast looking?

[Arron]

Active for the rest of the tour that's for sure

[nsrobins]

Afternoon team. I quite like the area around Chadron, NE up near the SD border. On the NE flank of the Denver cyclone, close to 60F dps have already got into the area and SRH looks sufficient. A suspect a line of cells will develop by 21Z from NW SD to NW NE and the southern end of this line could provide some fun.

[Arron]

Just finished lunch and heading north towards the South Dakota border

[Adi F]

Personally I would head for I80 in Nebraska, some where near Gothenburg and wait for thinks to kick off. 

[RichB]

Arron are you on the storm with the tornado watch on?

[nsrobins]

Matt Grantham has a decent base on the storm up near Spearfish, SD.

[Arron]

No Rich, we're all the way up in Nebraska! Will be making a decision shortly whether to head for the cell heading in to SW South Dakota

[davehsug]

Best stream of the year tonight! Ironic that you're now really out in the sticks!

[Arron]

Yep, been really good 3G signal all the way up here :|

[Arron]

Okay we've cracked, we're off up to South Dakota

[samadamsuk]

hey Arron. Your a good 90 miles away from that cell to your north I think - take it you guys are banking on something firing up a bit closer -

[samadamsuk]

possibly a cell to your sw just coming off the wy border -

[samadamsuk]

what a hook on the mid SD cell! must go tn warned soon -

[samadamsuk]

anyone else around? - I make tha cell to the SW about 40 miles from the Team, if the gps is right, and tops now of 25 kft - definitely building -

[Arron]

We're on our way

[Roger J Smith]

It's not rushing too fast to the east which is good, possible intercept north of Wall SD in 80-90 mins, still 2-3 hours daylight left now.

[samadamsuk]

I cant work out whether its attached to the warm front, or some sort of wave off of that range, or just a serious right mover!

[Roger J Smith]

Hey Arron, is your route up SD 79 to I-90? Elk Vale Road cuts across outer suburbs of Rapid City could save you 10-15 mins. (Just looking on Google Earth). Sure your GPS will give you best route, I can't see any way to cut across country to Wall.

 

Sam, the storm is frontal, crest of the warm sector. Will probably track about due east or maybe ENE a touch, will need a north-south road off the I-90 to get close.

[Arron]

Yeah that's the one Roger, just no roads that cut NE so having to blast north and then across the I90

[Roger J Smith]

Well you're almost to Rapid City, take Elk Vale Rd across to I-90 east and then if the storm hasn't outrun you, 173 Ave runs north from I-90 and has an interchange. Just looking to see what sort of road connections there are up 173 Ave, imagine it's a paved 2-lane suburban to rural sort of road with 55 limit. Country looks flat with 200 ft deep river valleys here and there disrupting otherwise grid NS EW road pattern. Let me know if you want any phone numbers for specific motels, I can google them here and post them for you, or addresses for that matter, got me the old google earth going. Wall has the world's largest drug store, did you ever see it on other trips? There's nothing else there.