Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[mushymanrob]

dont get carried away with the suggestion that high pressure will return next week, in terms of heat... the synoptics might look good but itll be a clearer, fresher and cooler regime IF the charts go the way they are suggesting atm.

 

still very pleasant though.

[Summer Sun]

dont get carried away with the suggestion that high pressure will return next week, in terms of heat... the synoptics might look good but itll be a clearer, fresher and cooler regime IF the charts go the way they are suggesting atm.

 

still very pleasant though.

 

Yep doesn't have to be the heat of today given the sun still has some heat to it a lot of places would be in the mid /high teens to low 20's when compared to 12 months ago this September is miles better so far

[Captain Shortwave]

dont get carried away with the suggestion that high pressure will return next week, in terms of heat... the synoptics might look good but itll be a clearer, fresher and cooler regime IF the charts go the way they are suggesting atm.

 

still very pleasant though.

I think we have to look at it this way, this time yesterday we were starring down the barrel of a week of unsettled weather. Now the models are starting to flip to a week of dry weather after the weekend 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational run brings a cooler and unsettled blip from friday, lasting about 4 days but then becomes generally settled and increasingly anticyclonic from around the middle of next week onwards and never shows any signs of breaking down thereafter, temperatures generally nudging into the low 20's celsius... it's goodbye atlantic, nice knowing you, see you in october

[Tamara]

As suspected the models have made a meal of the low pressure and its longevity. Rinse and repeat with the Azores high looks the way ahead yet again next week. Plenty more fine late season weather to come - cooler than today and tomorrow, but still very pleasant with warm sunshine by day

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The GFS 12Z short ensembles show a significant cool down next week. Could be a full 10c lower in some places this time next week compared to tomorrow's forecast temps.

 

 

Tomorrow could well be the last high temps we see until next year.

 

 

[049balt]

As suspected the models have made a meal of the low pressure and its longevity. Rinse and repeat with the Azores high looks the way ahead yet again next week. Plenty more fine late season weather to come - cooler than today and tomorrow, but still very pleasant with warm sunshine by day

It is amazing when a trend becomes established it becomes so hard to shift, all in all it is wonderful weather.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Just wait till winter the only posts in here will be biased to cold and snow!

 

UKMO moving in the right direction as well

 

 

GFS continues its move to ECM

 

 

Warmer air pushing back into the SW

 

 

ECM at t144 to compare (00z run)

 

 

It looks like ECM was on the right track after all with UKMO and GFS coming inline now

 

True - but just cos others do it doesn't make it ok. 

[Mark Neal.]

The GFS 12Z short ensembles show a significant cool down next week. Could be a full 10c lower in some places this time next week compared to tomorrow's forecast temps.

 

graphe_ens4.php.gif

 

Tomorrow could well be the last high temps we see until next year.

Worth noting with *potential* for 10c down for some places come next week as you alluded to, would still be around average if not above average. 17-19C isn't bad for september and in any light winds and long sunny spells will feel very pleasant! 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Worth noting with *potential* for 10c down for some places come next week as you alluded to, would still be around average if not above average. 17-19C isn't bad for september and in any light winds and long sunny spells will feel very pleasant! 

 

Yes still average / slightly above, and still feeling pleasant in light winds

Edited September 4, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Bristawl Si]

The GFS 12Z short ensembles show a significant cool down next week. Could be a full 10c lower in some places this time next week compared to tomorrow's forecast temps.

graphe_ens4.php.gif

Tomorrow could well be the last high temps we see until next year.

There again we could see an end Sept/early Oct 2011 if we're lucky.

Nobody knows at this stage what the weather will be like, for sure, over coming weeks. Not I, not thee or even super computer models.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

There again we could see an end Sept/early Oct 2011 if we're lucky.

Nobody knows at this stage what the weather will be like, for sure, over coming weeks. Not I, not thee or even super computer models.

 

Yes agreed, which is why i was very careful to put the word "could"  in my sentence

Edited September 4, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[Summer Sun]

As you were from ECM out to t96

 

 

High pressure starting to move in nicely at t120

 

 

Following on nicely from its 00z run so far

 

t144 continues the theme of high pressure rebuilding

 

 

Edited September 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

To be honest, the models are really struggling still with exactly where the weekends low is gonna be! I expect the next gfs run to be different again to its 12z run! And, as for the ecm, I would be very surprised to if its whistling the same tune on this evening 12z run compared to its 00z morning run!  

 

So far it is up to t168 with out change

 

Well done to ECM if it holds firm again this evening with it the first to pick the new trend up

Edited September 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[HammerJack]

The GFS 12Z short ensembles show a significant cool down next week. Could be a full 10c lower in some places this time next week compared to tomorrow's forecast temps.

graphe_ens4.php.gif

Tomorrow could well be the last high temps we see until next year.

I'll be happy with high teens / low twenties. It's not so much the temp for me this time of year, but getting clear sunny skies and not the endless train of Atlantic systems moving across the country will please me no end ðŸ‘

[Summer Sun]

With 2 and a 1/2 weeks of our astronomical summer left we can still get some respectable warmth by day and some possible foggy mornings given the time of year

 

[Tim Bland]

Atlantic still looks dead even in FI. Water companies could be getting worried soon!

[ANYWEATHER]

So far it is up to t168 with out change

 

Well done to ECM if it holds firm again this evening with it the first to pick the new trend up

And there is no reason why we wont see a different bunch of synoptics tomorrow! 

[Summer Sun]

Atlantic still looks dead even in FI. Water companies could be getting worried soon!

 

Water levels should be fine for now after last years deluge but if this dry high pressure dominated weather lasts through Autumn and Winter I think we'd be looking at another drought in 2014 especially after the heatwave in July

 

not much change at t216 other than cooler air becoming closer to the NW the overall pattern of high pressure for the UK and low pressure for Greenland remains at t216 another big area of low pressure is lining up to hit hit Greenland

 

Edited September 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[HammerJack]

With 2 and a 1/2 weeks of our astronomical summer left we can still get some respectable warmth by day and some possible foggy mornings given the time of year

Yes defiantly the case. But I think we can still get very very reasonable temps even in mid October. My sons birthday is in mid Oct, and for the past 5 years (he is only 5) it's been very comfortable t-shirt and shorts weather. Gotta love the British weather 😄I think the cut off is when the clocks go back, and there is not enough daylight hours to keep the heat of the sun going.

[Summer Sun]

Yes defiantly the case. But I think we can still get very very reasonable temps even in mid October. My sons birthday is in mid Oct, and for the past 5 years (he is only 5) it's been very comfortable t-shirt and shorts weather. Gotta love the British weather I think the cut off is when the clocks go back, and there is not enough daylight hours to keep the heat of the sun going.

 

Yeah 2011 was probably an exceptional spell early on but temperatures can remain very respectable beyond the end of astronomical summer given the right set up

 

ECM ends with another Azores high lined up to hit the UK whilst low pressure is anchored over Greenland

 

 

Edited September 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[snowstorm445]

Well after a blip this weekend, the charts are pointing to settled weather returning during next week, with high pressure never very far away. Temperatures look like they will fall to more comfortable, seasonal level as well, but the pleasant weather should continue for another week at least, keeping the damp Atlantic muck away for the forseeable future. Lovely.

[ANYWEATHER]

Well the Cfs is going for an unsettled week,[next week[ than the following weekend will see pressure rise,,,  

[Froze were the Days]

It is amazing when a trend becomes established it becomes so hard to shift, all in all it is wonderful weather.

Agreed! The weather patterns 'flipped' from the northerly blocking at the end of June and has remained consistent since then with certainly high anomalies of atmospheric pressure well down to our South West with a strong ridge over us and high pressure at times towards Scandanavia.

ECM at times a few weeks back juggled with the thought in the 7-10 day timescale of bringing stronger troughs (more Atlantic Pm sourced air) in from the north west but that just did not happen. The outlook looks fairly similar to August in my estimation, so largely dry bar the odd poor day and pretty warm and sunny.  

[Yarmy]

Atlantic still looks dead even in FI. Water companies could be getting worried soon!

Hurricane season has not really kicked into gear yet either. Are the two related?